Patience is a Virtue
Monday, April 23, 2007 at 01:16PM
Here is another classic example of how patience pays off. Sometimes as traders we get too distracted or super focused on the day to day activity, rather than looking at the bigger picture. PCAR was a case study from about 3 weeks ago that didn't start off as a huge mover, but was absolutely money in the context of the "trend trade" as it was intended.Some might have exited this trade for lack of time available until expiration. This is another example of why I don't ever want traders buying options with one month or less expiry. What a shot in the foot to settle for such a horrible option. You can have the stock pegged, the market trend in your favor, etc but this option just sheds time value faster than it gains intrinsic. Please don't waste your time with these, unless you are a day trader...then again that trader wouldn't have traded this stock.
Take a look at that chart once more and zoom away from the daily candlesticks, and watch the wave-like movements as the stock trends higher. In context of this trend, every movement was normal and expected. The option selection process can generate emotion that effects your patience in this trade, so make sure you pick the right option for your strategy. If you have a trending stock, get some time, and a hobby to take your mind off of the day-to-day movements. If you have a swing trade, you can select a more aggressive option and fall back on a time stop.
Anyhow, after a little patience...congrats on the new 52-week high.
Recommendation: Choose your options wisely.
Long: PCAR
Short: Patience







Reader Comments (25)
Great case study on PCAR. I am one of the people who took the trade and then got out because it hadn't done anything for several days. I had two more opportunities to enter, but didn't take them. I have been reading the "Market Wizard" books. Several of the people interviewed said sometimes they have to reenter the trade to get it right. One even mentioned reentering 4 times. I don't think I have ever reentered a trade when my intial timing was off. I, of course, can see that it is emotion keeping me out. The chart tells me to buy. I am sure more success will come when I simply do what the chart says.
Amy
Thanks for the case study on PCAR. I bought 300 shares on 3/30 @ $73 thinking to add calls when the stock confirmed and to exit before earnings. I did not add and had doubts last week with earnings quickly approaching. I decided to sell 3 May covered calls and have not added to the position. My maximum gain is limited to $4.45 and I must hold to expiration or exit all trades. Patience and emotions are so hard to control, but at least I am making some money as I'm trying to become a better trader. On the pull back, I'll pull the trigger on buying some of those calls.
As Jeff mentioned, I need to get away from the day to day movement of the Market and give the stocks alot of room to retrace in order to get the big gains. --Patti
Thanks for the PCAR focus today. I was just telling Catherine this morning how grateful I was that we'd bought May options on PCAR a few weeks ago and we could afford to sit back and sip pina coladas while we waited for it to pop. Yesterday and today we were finally rewarded. Now we have to decide when to get out.
Bailed on DRYS today too. 210% gain and it looks like it's running out of steam for a while. I'll keep watching it though.
I have my own watch list to post tonight, but I have to get my girls up to the barn for riding lessons. Thank goodness for an awesome day on the market for us.
Chris and Catherine
PCAR anounces earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. Why didn't anyone tell me? I'll sue!!!! Oh man. I'm hoping that the movement and volume of the last two days may be an indicator... but if it's anything else I'll be looking for a sword to fall on.
Always watch for earnings folks. Never, ever hold over earnings, folks.
Ever.
Watch this space for early morning sobfest.... or victory dances.
Chris and Catherine
Your blog is superb and I thank you for the time you spend on it. It's stuff like you did today that makes it worth my time to visit. You must have wrote that to me .. it's exactly my picture over the last few days with this stock.
Oh but there are so many more out there .. and I am looking to jump into some in the next 48 hours ...
Thanks again!
You know how i feel about earnings. It's perfectly okay to hold over them...that is, if you plan to do it.
Make sure you grab a WM on the way to work and you should be just fine.
Nice tombstone candle if it confirms.
I'm still in...
Rd
liz
pasadena, ca
Happy Trading,
Cinda (Santa Rosa)
What do you guys and gals think?
David S
Long:
AVID
FCL
FRG
VIP
ODP
Short:
KOMG
NNI
SUPX
SPF
These are guaranteed to work for you.... but only if you reverse my calls on them. Make the shorts long, and the longs short, and I'm pretty sure you'll come out a winner (as opposed to me, who is a weiner.) Ooops... that goes against the psychology of trading. What I meant to say is that all those stocks will perform as ordered. They can't possibly withstand the combined mental powers of Chris and Catherine. Actually, FRG is a very exciting stock as it's a Gold/Uranium combo platter. Two great plays in one stock!
PS... Catherine has had her Oija Board out and says that all the stars are lining up (actually it's the lines on the Market Forecast) and she's very concerned that everything's peaking together. She thinks we're in for a cataclysmic drop (well.... at least SOME kind of drop) and so we're shying away from any bull plays that are at the top of their cycles (ie DRYS... even PCAR in the last couple of days.) When Catherine speaks... the world listens (if they know what's good for them.)
Chris and Catherine
sue
--Patti
Keith
cb
(a new poster, but avid reader)