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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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« PCAR Can't Go Any Higher, Huh? | Main | Just Another Manic Monday »

Patience is a Virtue

Here is another classic example of how patience pays off. Sometimes as traders we get too distracted or super focused on the day to day activity, rather than looking at the bigger picture. PCAR was a case study from about 3 weeks ago that didn't start off as a huge mover, but was absolutely money in the context of the "trend trade" as it was intended.

Some might have exited this trade for lack of time available until expiration. This is another example of why I don't ever want traders buying options with one month or less expiry. What a shot in the foot to settle for such a horrible option. You can have the stock pegged, the market trend in your favor, etc but this option just sheds time value faster than it gains intrinsic. Please don't waste your time with these, unless you are a day trader...then again that trader wouldn't have traded this stock.

Take a look at that chart once more and zoom away from the daily candlesticks, and watch the wave-like movements as the stock trends higher. In context of this trend, every movement was normal and expected. The option selection process can generate emotion that effects your patience in this trade, so make sure you pick the right option for your strategy. If you have a trending stock, get some time, and a hobby to take your mind off of the day-to-day movements. If you have a swing trade, you can select a more aggressive option and fall back on a time stop.

Anyhow, after a little patience...congrats on the new 52-week high.






Recommendation: Choose your options wisely.

Long: PCAR

Short: Patience

Reader Comments (25)

Jeff,
Great case study on PCAR. I am one of the people who took the trade and then got out because it hadn't done anything for several days. I had two more opportunities to enter, but didn't take them. I have been reading the "Market Wizard" books. Several of the people interviewed said sometimes they have to reenter the trade to get it right. One even mentioned reentering 4 times. I don't think I have ever reentered a trade when my intial timing was off. I, of course, can see that it is emotion keeping me out. The chart tells me to buy. I am sure more success will come when I simply do what the chart says.
Amy
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 01:41PM | Unregistered CommenterAmy
Jeff,
Thanks for the case study on PCAR. I bought 300 shares on 3/30 @ $73 thinking to add calls when the stock confirmed and to exit before earnings. I did not add and had doubts last week with earnings quickly approaching. I decided to sell 3 May covered calls and have not added to the position. My maximum gain is limited to $4.45 and I must hold to expiration or exit all trades. Patience and emotions are so hard to control, but at least I am making some money as I'm trying to become a better trader. On the pull back, I'll pull the trigger on buying some of those calls.
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 02:24PM | Unregistered CommenterYvonne
I got stopped out of PCAR on April 12 with a fairly small loss because I had my stop a few pennies above the fib retracement where it stopped that day. I learned a lesson. But, if I understand the Wash Sale rule correctly, had I gotten back in and taken another loss, the losses cancel each other out as far as the IRS is concerned. Would someone please comment on how they deal with the wash rule.

As Jeff mentioned, I need to get away from the day to day movement of the Market and give the stocks alot of room to retrace in order to get the big gains. --Patti
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 02:27PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Last week I almost dumped my VLO for the same reason. Had to go home every night and say 10 "Plan the trade, trade the plan" 's. Paid off big today ;-) Hope it stays tomorrow
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 02:36PM | Unregistered Commentertom degroodt in des moines
Jeff,
Thanks for the PCAR focus today. I was just telling Catherine this morning how grateful I was that we'd bought May options on PCAR a few weeks ago and we could afford to sit back and sip pina coladas while we waited for it to pop. Yesterday and today we were finally rewarded. Now we have to decide when to get out.

Bailed on DRYS today too. 210% gain and it looks like it's running out of steam for a while. I'll keep watching it though.

I have my own watch list to post tonight, but I have to get my girls up to the barn for riding lessons. Thank goodness for an awesome day on the market for us.

Chris and Catherine
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 02:39PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
AAAAUUUUGGGGHHHHH!!!!
PCAR anounces earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. Why didn't anyone tell me? I'll sue!!!! Oh man. I'm hoping that the movement and volume of the last two days may be an indicator... but if it's anything else I'll be looking for a sword to fall on.

Always watch for earnings folks. Never, ever hold over earnings, folks.

Ever.

Watch this space for early morning sobfest.... or victory dances.

Chris and Catherine
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 02:47PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff .. my thanks as well for PCAR ... I came out Friday .. not wanting to hold till today with earnings Tuesday ... It cost me 33% ... BUT, I made some Friday ... much smaller mind you but didn't lose and wasn't going to hold through earnings.PCAR is always on my watchlist because look at that history ... zig and then zag ...

Your blog is superb and I thank you for the time you spend on it. It's stuff like you did today that makes it worth my time to visit. You must have wrote that to me .. it's exactly my picture over the last few days with this stock.

Oh but there are so many more out there .. and I am looking to jump into some in the next 48 hours ...

Thanks again!
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 03:18PM | Unregistered CommenterBenton
Chris,

You know how i feel about earnings. It's perfectly okay to hold over them...that is, if you plan to do it.

Make sure you grab a WM on the way to work and you should be just fine.
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 03:22PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett
I see IBM had an analyst upgrade today. Didn't seem to make much impact by the end of the day.
Nice tombstone candle if it confirms.
I'm still in...

Rd
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 07:29PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
I love PCAR! I've made money on this stock more than a few times because of it's consistency to pretty much stay in that nice upward moving channel. And this time instead of biting my fingernails every day waiting for it to hit it's target, I did get an extra hobby!!!

liz
pasadena, ca
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 08:52PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Thanks everyone for your comments on my failed SPX trade over the weekend and Jeff, for addressing it in the Marketcast on Fri. I have emailed Mike Coval with a couple of brief questions about that particular trade and will post his response here when I receive it. I'm going to leave the SPX trades alone for awhile especially since there are alternative indexes to trade.

Happy Trading,
Cinda (Santa Rosa)
Mon, April 23, 2007 at 11:42PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
PCAR is looking good today pre market, maybe we could hit the 84 target that the chart reads.

What do you guys and gals think?

David S
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 06:17AM | Unregistered Commenterdavide
Man, it's tough to find time to do anything when you have two active kids. I promised my list of guaranteed winners... so here they are

Long:
AVID
FCL
FRG
VIP
ODP

Short:
KOMG
NNI
SUPX
SPF

These are guaranteed to work for you.... but only if you reverse my calls on them. Make the shorts long, and the longs short, and I'm pretty sure you'll come out a winner (as opposed to me, who is a weiner.) Ooops... that goes against the psychology of trading. What I meant to say is that all those stocks will perform as ordered. They can't possibly withstand the combined mental powers of Chris and Catherine. Actually, FRG is a very exciting stock as it's a Gold/Uranium combo platter. Two great plays in one stock!

PS... Catherine has had her Oija Board out and says that all the stars are lining up (actually it's the lines on the Market Forecast) and she's very concerned that everything's peaking together. She thinks we're in for a cataclysmic drop (well.... at least SOME kind of drop) and so we're shying away from any bull plays that are at the top of their cycles (ie DRYS... even PCAR in the last couple of days.) When Catherine speaks... the world listens (if they know what's good for them.)

Chris and Catherine
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 06:32AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
hey chris. looks like you're going to be happy with PCAR this morning.
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 07:29AM | Unregistered CommenterTim
I held Pacar over earnings with no regrets.
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 07:33AM | Unregistered Commenteroptionfanatic
i held 1 may contract also over earnings,,,so now we have to decide where to take substantial profits. looks like chris and catherine will be dancing this morning.

sue
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 07:40AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Congratulations Chris!!!!
--Patti
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 07:48AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
I stuck to my rule, sold yesterday for a profit before earnings, so I can't complain..but seeing PCAR up almost $11 today...OUCH. I would have tripled my total account balance!

Keith
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 08:00AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Whoopee! Finally got something right! Held on to PCAR and took my $ and ran this morning! Will probably get back in this one after it pulls back from this exponential rise! What a day.

cb
(a new poster, but avid reader)
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 08:02AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
test
Tue, April 24, 2007 at 08:03AM | Unregistered CommenterKlawyer

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