4 Reasons Not To Trade VIX Options
Monday, July 30, 2007 at 08:40AM There are a few reasons I refuse trade them. These are my own opinions, based off my own experiences. If you choose to read them, you may be influenced by my opinions and it may cost you money.
Reason #1: No Opportunities.
With the exception of about a half dozen rallies or retracements over the last year, opportunities involving substantial moves in the VIX are few and far between. Normally I like to follow the momo stocks, and I happen to be shorter term in the duration of my trades, but the VIX wouldn't qualify as "momo" to me, barring a few exceptions. However if you are longer term oriented, the percentage swings are amazing. If you can look out that far.
Reason #2: Implied Volatility on Implied Volatility
What? Due to the fact that the VIX is a measurement of implied volatility, I would have figured that the markup on these wouldn't have been too bad...initially. Check out the range of implied volatility on my chart below...
That's right. A scale of 105-55. Want to know why? Historical volatility. The index has a wild history. Since 1993 (which samples the end of the 90's bull market, the collapse, and our current bull market) The VIX has a price range as high as the low 50's and as low as 10. That is quite a range for such a low priced index. However, no matter how you cut it, the one amazing constant of this index is the historical volatility, which averages 80%. With historical volatility being that high, these will be priced not too far off these historical values. In fact, 80 falls right in the middle of that range (55-105).
The calls are trading at 1.40 x 1.60, which isn't devastating if you are expecting a few points of upside. Take a look at the puts. 4.20 x 4.60! That's more like it. These options are priced as if the VIX is going to get crushed, and then some. Problem is that if you hit that ask, you would need more that a crash in the VIX to make money.Reason #3: Cash Settled
You can't exercise these options. If I could, I would. Take a look at this...
Imagine you bought some of these overpriced calls before the rally in the VIX. With all the intrinsic value you just picked up, you ought to be ready to cash in on some big bucks, right? Wrong. Compare the intrinsic value to the bid. The deeper in the money you get, the further away the bid gets from intrinsic value. Take the 18's for example (August paper). This contract should be worth $4.81 (intrinsic) but it is selling for 2.85! Since these are cash settles, and the market knows you cannot exercise, you are f____! You can imagine what you would have paid for them in front of that rally, or if you can't pull some historical quotes. It will leave you very unsatisfied.Reason #4: Forward Pricing
The reason that prices don't seem to move at the rate of the underlying index (until you are close to expiration) is due to the fact that the market uses pricing on the VIX futures to get a forward value of the index.
PS- They expire on Wednesdays, not Fridays. Just to be complicated.
Recommendation: Come to your own conclusion if you wish, but I'd take my word for it.
Long: Opinions
Short: VIX options







Reader Comments (215)
I see VCP. Looks like a good one to watch. CHKP, I understand, but BPHX, what do you see in that chart?
Michelle
Look at the breakout over $10.50. Then look at the volume on that massive run straight up from $8.50 to $14.00. Then look at the pullback near that $10.50 support.
So what do i see? I see a massive flag setting up with volume perfectly conforming. I see the MACD and STOCH oversold and heading up. I see volume up today and a likely breakout occurring. In short, I see a stock purchase at $12, with a stop around $10.00 and upside as far as the eye can see.
But hey, that's just me.
Kim
when you posted your last poem,
I must say, I am surprised
that my name you have surmised,
You and Chip, you swear you know it
That is, the name of the Phantom Poet,
but I think you are full of...burritos
because I am still incognito,
So, if it is true, you now my name
Then quickly terminate this game,
by posting my true identity
and, Raimo, this time no profanity,
So please, right now, could you bestow
my name you believe that you know,
not even your treasured OA thong
will give you a lift when you're wrong,
so, keep posting while you're trading
your feable attempts at Poet baiting,
you may be an exceptional trader
but you are not yet a "master-baitor",
So I will add to your frustration
by not assisting your elimination,
of all the names that could be mine
on this blog which is so fine,
But concentrate Raimo and you will see
my name that is, it is PP!!!
Thanks for the analysis. After I get lunch for my kids, I'll study it. You are much further along than I am, and the way I learn is looking at the charts and studying them and trying to see different perspectives.
Michelle
Excellent post about the top 4 reason you don't trade VIX option.
You mention about "momo stock ", What is meant by " momo stock" ?
Kas
ARTC....broke out friday !! looks like we need to wait for a retest
BEAV....is bouncing/earnings 2nite
CGX...67.50 support broken
FCX is showing life again ...
Just FYI!
Thanks, I am glad someone mentioned it.
Kas,
"momo" means momentum.
Any opinions, anyone?
Kim
What would be an example of a momentum stock?
Michelle
I grabbed some, hoping it breaks $62 hard....
THANKS!!!!!
Michelle
From a technical point of view, I see support at $47. The thing that pops into my mind is that what started this whole downward movement was them revising their outlook downward (CAT had done the same thing a couple of days before). That leads me to wonder if the big money will come in and buy it or not - today's volume doesn't convince me that they are, at least right now.
Anyways, that's my .02.
Scoot
I am watcing VMI. Would that be a flag? It looks like it is bouncing off support. The only concern is some volume on the down days. And it is not optionable.
Michelle
CME and GOOG..
ROCK ON !!!!
CAM and NE also right at support. The OIH hit support today. Might be worth watching.
Michelle
Anu
Kim