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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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4 Reasons Not To Trade VIX Options

The question came up last week about why I have such a complex trading VIX options. For the most part, I haven't spoken with anyone who has had a great experience in trading them. I am going to assume that the majority understands the VIX, or has at least read my VIX article on Forbes some time ago.

There are a few reasons I refuse trade them. These are my own opinions, based off my own experiences. If you choose to read them, you may be influenced by my opinions and it may cost you money.

Reason #1: No Opportunities.

With the exception of about a half dozen rallies or retracements over the last year, opportunities involving substantial moves in the VIX are few and far between. Normally I like to follow the momo stocks, and I happen to be shorter term in the duration of my trades, but the VIX wouldn't qualify as "momo" to me, barring a few exceptions. However if you are longer term oriented, the percentage swings are amazing. If you can look out that far.

Reason #2: Implied Volatility on Implied Volatility

What? Due to the fact that the VIX is a measurement of implied volatility, I would have figured that the markup on these wouldn't have been too bad...initially. Check out the range of implied volatility on my chart below...

That's right. A scale of 105-55. Want to know why? Historical volatility. The index has a wild history. Since 1993 (which samples the end of the 90's bull market, the collapse, and our current bull market) The VIX has a price range as high as the low 50's and as low as 10. That is quite a range for such a low priced index. However, no matter how you cut it, the one amazing constant of this index is the historical volatility, which averages 80%. With historical volatility being that high, these will be priced not too far off these historical values. In fact, 80 falls right in the middle of that range (55-105).

As you know, implied volatility that high really pumps the price of those near money contracts. Here is a look at the September paper, VIX trading at 22.81.The calls are trading at 1.40 x 1.60, which isn't devastating if you are expecting a few points of upside. Take a look at the puts. 4.20 x 4.60! That's more like it. These options are priced as if the VIX is going to get crushed, and then some. Problem is that if you hit that ask, you would need more that a crash in the VIX to make money.

Reason #3: Cash Settled

You can't exercise these options. If I could, I would. Take a look at this...

Imagine you bought some of these overpriced calls before the rally in the VIX. With all the intrinsic value you just picked up, you ought to be ready to cash in on some big bucks, right? Wrong. Compare the intrinsic value to the bid. The deeper in the money you get, the further away the bid gets from intrinsic value. Take the 18's for example (August paper). This contract should be worth $4.81 (intrinsic) but it is selling for 2.85! Since these are cash settles, and the market knows you cannot exercise, you are f____! You can imagine what you would have paid for them in front of that rally, or if you can't pull some historical quotes. It will leave you very unsatisfied.

Reason #4: Forward Pricing

The reason that prices don't seem to move at the rate of the underlying index (until you are close to expiration) is due to the fact that the market uses pricing on the VIX futures to get a forward value of the index.

PS- They expire on Wednesdays, not Fridays. Just to be complicated.

Recommendation: Come to your own conclusion if you wish, but I'd take my word for it.

Long: Opinions

Short: VIX options

Reader Comments (215)

Brett,
I see VCP. Looks like a good one to watch. CHKP, I understand, but BPHX, what do you see in that chart?

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:10AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Michelle,

Look at the breakout over $10.50. Then look at the volume on that massive run straight up from $8.50 to $14.00. Then look at the pullback near that $10.50 support.

So what do i see? I see a massive flag setting up with volume perfectly conforming. I see the MACD and STOCH oversold and heading up. I see volume up today and a likely breakout occurring. In short, I see a stock purchase at $12, with a stop around $10.00 and upside as far as the eye can see.

But hey, that's just me.
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:18AM | Unregistered CommenterBrett
Jeff - Okay, if I wasn't convinced before (and I was) I am now. Why should I take the time to try to beat something the Option Addict founder himself says to stay away from. I've got better ways to waste my time other than predicting the VIX...

Kim
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:25AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
Sorry Raimo, I wasn't home
when you posted your last poem,

I must say, I am surprised
that my name you have surmised,

You and Chip, you swear you know it
That is, the name of the Phantom Poet,

but I think you are full of...burritos
because I am still incognito,

So, if it is true, you now my name
Then quickly terminate this game,

by posting my true identity
and, Raimo, this time no profanity,

So please, right now, could you bestow
my name you believe that you know,

not even your treasured OA thong
will give you a lift when you're wrong,

so, keep posting while you're trading
your feable attempts at Poet baiting,

you may be an exceptional trader
but you are not yet a "master-baitor",

So I will add to your frustration
by not assisting your elimination,

of all the names that could be mine
on this blog which is so fine,

But concentrate Raimo and you will see
my name that is, it is PP!!!
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:28AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Brett,
Thanks for the analysis. After I get lunch for my kids, I'll study it. You are much further along than I am, and the way I learn is looking at the charts and studying them and trying to see different perspectives.

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:36AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
JK,

Excellent post about the top 4 reason you don't trade VIX option.

You mention about "momo stock ", What is meant by " momo stock" ?

Kas
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:42AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Raimo.....point taken, thanks

ARTC....broke out friday !! looks like we need to wait for a retest

BEAV....is bouncing/earnings 2nite

CGX...67.50 support broken
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:43AM | Unregistered CommenterTonya Williams
Might look at POT again .... moving on good volume this AM ....

FCX is showing life again ...

Just FYI!
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:46AM | Unregistered CommenterBenton
Kim,

Thanks, I am glad someone mentioned it.

Kas,

"momo" means momentum.
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:46AM | Unregistered CommenterJeff Kohler
JOYG - I'm pondering a play here. Sto and MACD bottoming out. Volume moving down as price dropped. A break below $47.50 or so and I'm out so it's easy to manage risk. I also see a good support level at its current levels on the 1 yr. chart.

Any opinions, anyone?

Kim
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 10:54AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
Did anyone trade KRC from my lst last week? If so I was thinking you might consider taking profits soon.
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:05AM | Unregistered CommenterJeff Kohler
No, Jeff. By the time I looked at trading it, the entry was bad.
What would be an example of a momentum stock?

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:07AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff,
I grabbed some, hoping it breaks $62 hard....


THANKS!!!!!
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:12AM | Unregistered CommenterRaimo
Brett, I see all that. The question I have is: Can a flag be that long? I had that same question the other day on POT. Jeff had called it a flag, we had some down days and I wasn't sure if it was still considered a flag. Are there rules on flags that I should know about?

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:12AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Kim,

From a technical point of view, I see support at $47. The thing that pops into my mind is that what started this whole downward movement was them revising their outlook downward (CAT had done the same thing a couple of days before). That leads me to wonder if the big money will come in and buy it or not - today's volume doesn't convince me that they are, at least right now.

Anyways, that's my .02.

Scoot
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:13AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Brett,
I am watcing VMI. Would that be a flag? It looks like it is bouncing off support. The only concern is some volume on the down days. And it is not optionable.

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:19AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Brett,

CME and GOOG..

ROCK ON !!!!
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:22AM | Unregistered CommenterRaimo
Jeff and Eric mentioned stocks that do well in tough markets. TAP was one of them. It is right at some good support and up a little today. Looks like a good entry point for any interested.
CAM and NE also right at support. The OIH hit support today. Might be worth watching.

Michelle
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:28AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff, on the KRC trade are you taking profits now because it has hit the target or is there another reason? I see that the volume is shriveling up on the down move. Here would it be one where you could take off a few and tighten the stop on the rest?

Anu
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:37AM | Unregistered CommenterAnu
Scoot - Thanks for the JOYG info. You're absolutely right on the news front. I think my "on-sale" gene was kicking in.

Kim
Mon, July 30, 2007 at 11:45AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl

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