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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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Terror in the SPX Pit

I am going to follow the trend of bloggers commenting on the "911 trade."

This was in regards to the open interest on the Sept 700 SPX calls. A lot of traders are looking at this as a large bet on a predicted directional movement in the market. "A prediction of a terrorist attack." Niner.

The headlines won't tell you this, but notice how the Sept 1700's have the same open interest. It's a box spread (I checked). It's commonly used for short term financing. The trader picks strikes that are unlikely to get hit and at expiration it will unwind, hence trading the "tips" of the option chain.

Don't bet on another 911, unless you see huge lots firing off in stocks like RICK, SWHC, HAL and PYX.

It brings up a good question though... How should I protect myself from this event?
You can't. Don't let it hinder what you have going. Continue to position size, diversify, and manage your portfolio by risk first, and you'll do fine.

My scrapbook is running behind... here are a few more contributions.

Here is a pic of Jamie on a kayak trip in Jersey. This was taken at an event he helps organize and manage to raise money for the Special Olympics. Jamie, I told you before, but you are a hero in my book.

Here is a pic of Kim and Dan (aka "VA beach girl") at the 3 day live class last week. We got to visit for a few of the days that they were here... thanks for keeping me company!

Next you'll see Tim on his Option Addict water sled. He bought the one and only limited OA edition. Nice call.

Finally the Marketcast posed for a few shots with Danny and his mom at Investools headquarters.

Well, I think I will crawl back into my hole. I might post a watchlist this evening, if the mood catches me right.

Recommendation: If you happened to be on any side of the box trade, exercise your option just to piss off some hedge fund/corporation.

Long: 911 (the Porsche kind)

Short: 911 (the terrorist kind)

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Reader Comments (72)

Oooo....

I am with you on that one Jeff (the 911 Porsche side)!

Great pics too.
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 01:18PM | Unregistered CommenterBob (and Pam)
Jeff,
Thanks for the reminder on GMCR, I was watching on the close and somebody took some profits or someone thinks it is unwinding the wrong way.

Thanks for looking into the SPX for us!

Cheers,
CC
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 02:04PM | Unregistered CommenterArty
Raimo...drinks on you, buddy! I had some drink called Cactus Juice while I was in Salt Lake at Iggy's watching my Tommy (that would be Tom Brady, the fourth man in my life after my husband and my two boys) and the NE Patriots on Friday. Needless to say it was some awful glow-in-the-dark green color that knocked me for a loop. I'll take one of those on you compliments of LFC. Thanks in advance, btw. Haha.


Jeff...just took my first trade since learning my new rules last week. It was GMCR but was already on my radar from Friday. I feel like a new woman (or trader).

Kim
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 02:10PM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
mdoggm,

REE stands for Raimo's Entry/Exit. It is a way on this blog of saying that you want to enter your trade close to your exit for loss so that you can minimize risk.
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 02:12PM | Unregistered CommenterScoot
Kim,
Would you please e-mail me?

gardnerfam4@hotmail.com

Thanks!
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 02:30PM | Unregistered CommenterLaney
Dr Tony....email me at tuck121@msn.com....i trade mostly vertical credit (put)spreads

tuck
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:08PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Is all the conversation moving outside the blog? Where did everyone go?

Did we lose a lot of readers recently?
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:16PM | Unregistered CommenterJeff Kohler
Jeff-

You're right. The blog was as boring as the market activity today. Maybe I'm getting used to and liking the wild swings. Did I just say that? I'm taking it back.

Okay everybody. Pipe up and let Jeff know you're here.

Kim
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:23PM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
Jeff,

I can only speak for myself. I have 2 kids starting high school today, one that I am getting ready to move into her first apartment for college and my oldest who just had surgery. This is a busy time of year for any of us that have school age children and with the market being so crazy, I am guessing there are a lot of us mostly cash. It is hard to be away from the computer when the market is so volatile. That doesn't mean we are all not watching the blog but perhaps not participating as much.
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:23PM | Unregistered CommenterSean M.
Jeff,

I am here. But since the market just closed. Now I can concentrate on my day job ;-)

Just reading the comments and working a plan for tommorrow. It was sort of nowhere day in the market. But my gut feel is that we go down and retest the previous lows and hence just sort of sideways.

China was a surprise today and it kept the market stable for the day.
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:30PM | Unregistered Commentermahmood
Jeff,
I am here. I'm always here. Even when I am out playing Realtor or artist or drummer girl, I am here.

Nice pics! I like putting faces with the names.

Re Chinese stocks today - any explanation as to why everyone suddenly decided to throw their money that way? Also, I noticed that TSL, a Chinese solar stock, did not participate but was down with the rest of the solars and the market. And it is tempting me as it is sitting right at support. This is either a double top or a great entry. Thoughts?
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 03:37PM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl
I am sure glad I poked my head in to say hi before Jeff asked where is everyone.

As I mentioned above school starts today and while I never really participated in this in my corporate life I started a tradition to go at least on the first day and then hang a bit to see how things went on the first day of school. Now that the kids are back home I have to catch up on work and my watch lists.

Oh and yes I am mainly in cash just LEN and SHV. Really boring!
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:02PM | Unregistered CommenterBob (and Pam)
Kim,

That green stuff you sucked down, that they told you was cactus juice...really leftover water from the 3 mile island nuclear incident here in PA years ago. Yeah, it throw people for a loop. Wait till you pee.

LFC...excellent...sure, I owe you a cactus drink..done.
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:03PM | Unregistered CommenterRaimo
Good for you, Raimo.

If Kim pointed out that baby, she might need a whole cactus. Good play, you guys.

Michelle
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:15PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff,
I'm here too. Almost all in cash, so just checking in for a couple of days and then entertaining friends for about a week.
Really looking forward to getting back into a routine and digging into this market.
Lori
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:28PM | Unregistered CommenterLori
Jeff,
I have been a bit of a lurker today as I have some other projects I am working on. However I do not have any real good excuses like kids starting school, vacation or anything like that.

I am still net short waiting around for the Market to make its mind up. And yes the BPHX led the charge long for me today.

Hey I was in SLC this weekend and didn't get a Cactus drink, but I think I have a new submission for the Marketcast cookbook! Stayed tuned.

I think the OA bloggers are out doing their homework that is why traffic has been light.

Cheers,
ARTY
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:43PM | Unregistered CommenterArty
Jeff,

We are def still reading - hehe im slightly steeping away from the market to re-arrange my mental model before continuing. Reading trading in the zone (which is a big eye opener, just got to chapter 8! Im a sales rep so working in probabilities if perfect for me)

Ohh and thanks for the Fosters comment on the market cast friday! Heheh great aussie beer, however I like Bee's Knees better - Honey Wheat beer from Western Australia! Its 100% awesome! hehhe
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 04:44PM | Unregistered CommenterAussie Pete
Well, here I sit mostly in cash not daring to make an entry, watching in bewilderment as anything Chinese explodes upward.

Some obvious observations from today...

Financials, most notably BSC seem to finally be weakening enough to start heading down again and homebuilders broke down through the support they were attempting to establish. LEN looks the best for a bear play in that group if you need a re-entry.

---

MikeH
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 05:00PM | Unregistered CommenterBottom Feeder
The blog is quiet and Jeff is concerned,
the prior 3 weeks have left us all burned,
on the thought of trading for a living,
how could we disappoint one who is so giving,
So, Jeff, we are here, but we are cautious,
because the last 3 weeks have left us nauscious,
we have seen our accounts oscillate like a fairy,
a lot like Raimo after his morning Bloody Mary,
or not unlike his buddy Arty,
after an Option Addict party,
so don't be discouraged, we are still here,
and soon your mailbox will be full I fear,
about the future market trend,
then you will be sick of us, my friend,
enjoy your down time and court your bride,
she needs your free time, if she said otherwise,she lied,
we are still here, we could not leave,
because without you we could not achieve,
the financial independence that we all desire,
and soon we will all be able to retire,
with Brett, Liz, Chris, you and VA Beach Girl,
but not with Raimo, that makes me HURL!
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 05:20PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Sorry,

Signed PP
Mon, August 27, 2007 at 05:21PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous

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