I posted this after the clean cups so, repeat:

Jeff & Brett and everybody else....

Thanks for the great posts today. With Raimo's help and input last night I decided to get back to the basics myself. So Jeff's last thread and Raimo's thread on trends last night and Jeff's price patterns class have been the best perfect timing ever.

Thanks to all!

liz

Thanks Jeff!

There are just too many bearish plays out there right now, I wish I could handle more... I am just too short on the market right now. I am ready to change if need be.

Short people sure can pack a wallop, can't they? Just ask Dan 'cause he gets daily doses. ;}

Jeff...The timing on this post was impeccable. I feel like I need to solve the mystery on the online broker trade reco. I'm on it.

What a list. So so many sweet setups! Thanks Jeff. Most were already on my list,thanks for the confirmation

Mary Beth, your post on the last thread was so sweet (guys, go back and read it if you missed it).

Jeff, thanks for the list! I'm sensing that the waters are settling down (as is the VIX). Does your advice still stand of taking profits more quickly and keeping time horizons short? My guess:yes!, so I'll be treading softly.

Guys, today NUVA has vindicated me! HA! I almost exited on Monday when it closed $.15 below my line in the sand, but I got tied up changing diapers and such...thanks kids!

Seeing as how NUVA is my only position right now, I'm up! Take that to the bank!

I'll be diving into a few more positions today, probably from Jeff's 2nd watchlist. Jeff, thanks for talking about not staying completely away from the market during times like this. It makes sense... these are the times that we learn to navigate the rough waters, as there are always unfriendly seas in the future.

JCP is releasing earnings tomorrow and IV is through the roof.

Jeff, thanks so much for the 2nd watchlist. I needed more PUT plays. And thanks for the heads up on brokers.

OA's, for online brokers, SCHW looks like the best one out there to me. It's a bit extended today and yesterday would have been a better entry point, so I am going to wait for a pullback before I enter.

I entered a put at 97.50 on MTB and you encouraged my analysis Thanks!

Lookls like something is up with the arilines LCC and UAUA - they both just took off on heavy volume.

THQI is looking to confirm an inverse H & S. The question, when?

Add AMR and DAL to the above.

Did anyone jump into the FSTR symetrical triangle break yesterday? The volume wasn't there but the price action sure is...

I took a stock position which made it easier to take without volume.

Not disagreeing with Jeff - (He is the great and powerful Oz and I am well... not), however ANF, JCP, KIM, MER, MTB, STI, and OSK all have bullish divergences on the MACD. Also check out the XLF, and XRT - bullish divergences. What does that mean to me - MOST of those patterns look like forming H&S to me.

Also, the DJX looks like it might be a slight bullish divergence, and the SPX while not a prevalent divergence - definitely did not make a lower low on the MACD when it formed the lower low on price action.

I may be pushing it on the indexes - but the XRT and XLF seem pretty clear divergences. I may be just way out there in left field, but its worth throwing out there for debate.

Check out COH - good example of divergence.

Ok so the $SPX is slightly lower on the second low - very close.

Both the DJX and the SPX are currently testing their 1yr+ long trends beginning back in May '06. DJX right below it, SPX = right above it.

I think it would be funny if we all posted some nonsense at Tim's site based on his latest jab at OAs. Something totally off the subject of trading from the bored house wives that he's accused us of being like:

"Just curious if any of you have tried the Dyson, and how it compares to the Oreck?"

All in good taste. I like Tim' blog.

Trend I mention above = bottom channel line from the year and a half long uptrend from May '06.

Check out the day bull flag on the 10 day chart on all 3 major indexes (DJX/COMPQ/SPX). Should be good for about 13,500+ or so on the DJX if it plays out.

GRR - should be 2 day bull flag.

update on LCC and UAUA exploding on high volume... hedge fund pushing for Delta-United airline merger. Hope this helps!

here is the link if you want to read about it...
Airline Merge

Taken straight from the comments of Tim's post today titled "Fibonacci....God's Right-Hand Man."

I just want to show Jeff's not the only one who can play the zero word post game :-)

Posted by: Tim Knight | November 14, 2007 at 10:06 AM

Peter, your idea is too funny. I think it would drive him up the wall if we did that! Meet me over there in 5 mins. Just kidding. I don't want to make him mad. But I see where he's comin' from... Jeff really has a colorful and goofy bunch here, doesn't he? I wouldn't change this community for anything!

Sidebar, I may just insert a few dictionary.com entries on his site... what's the definition for, say, envious?

And look, he's even got his readers making fun of us:
In that case, let me be the first of 300 comments.

Posted by: Fatso | November 14, 2007 at 10:37 AM

I'm with Fatso. Only 297 to go.

Posted by: southvallium | November 14, 2007 at 10:42 AM

Jeff
I feel better. I decided to trade puts on MDC @ MER earlier today.Then I find them on your list. Maybe my head was not to far up my butt.

Posted before I knew about a "Clean Cup"

Brett,
Thank you so much for taking the time to write what you did. It really helps to know others are going through some of the same things.

Benton,
Are you sure you were talking about yourself or was it me? I started to trade with real money in April. Fumbled a bit, then took off. My goal was to double my money in a year. That was done by August. Then moved my goal to triple my account. I was well on my way to that also. I had it all figured out for me and my style. Then the market god said, "There is only one of us that knows whats-what, and it ain't you!"

SQWISH!!

I did get cocky, and lax on properly figuring out the best trade, and increasing my position size where it was not comfortable. And, And, And. Doing all the things carelessly. I am now barely above double. And I do mean barely. These past two weeks have been awful. I have learned a valuable lesson. Steady wins the race. Kind of like the rabbit and the tortoise race. I got rid of some big time losers, cleaned house in my account, and went back to my basics. There will be better trading days ahead and I gaurantee, we will all be much better traders for these bad days. I thank all of you for your input and wisdom.

Barbara

Howdy. Just passing through the airport and had to see how things were going. I must say Jeff I take GREAT OFFENCE to your comment about eating a donut. Cops eat donuts. Pilots do not. I eat healthy stuff like AAPLs and BEAVers. My razor wouldn't work today so I had to use a chainsaw.

Ouch.

James H,

How are you getting head & shoulder patterns on stocks making lower highs and lower lows?

Jeff

Jeff,

How about SCHW for a broker? Breaking new highs today...

They are also about to get another one of my accounts, that should give them a good pop:)

DaveW

Jeff,

I really appreciated the reply to my email earlier this week. You've really helped me get back into the game. I took a small nibble on JEC and NUVA and finally see the light of day with my portfolio. My TA book should be coming in by next week hopefully in time to analyze your weekly watchlist. Thanks again sir!

Jorge, what TA book was it that Jeff recommended to you, again? I saw it in another thread, but I don't remember where. Wasn't it something about candlesticks? I already have Murphy's TA book.

Thanks!

Jeff,

Would you consider GS forming a right shoulder(if it rolls) for a head and shoulder? although last pullback makes an ackward neckline.

Barbara (and Dan),

You definitely have the right attitude! And this blog is the place to get it.

I had a similar circumstance in June, which was about six months after I started... It is definitely a humbling experience. We can only learn and move forward. Looking back only creates unhealthy emotion. We have to look where we are going with our newfound knowledge, forward.

Krystal:

It is indeed Murphy's book. It's my first jump into TA. The first books I read when I started investing were Real Money by Cramer and the McMillan / Thomsett series of Options books. Cramer's book was a nice intro into fundamental trading but since my trading style's finally taking my own style I'm planning on focusing more on TA. Jeff recommended that I start with that book and from what I've heard, it's the gold standard in TA.

Jorge, I'm reading it now and it is very good! I'm about halfway through.

Krystal:

Yeah I'm excited to get it. I know quite a bit of the information's out on the web, but for some reason there's nothing better than a good paper reference. I figure between Murphy, Jeff's teachings, and the break we get for the holidays, I'll recharge for the new year. Let me know how the rest of it goes!

I was away for a few days. Catching up on the blog, there is a lot of heart felt stuff here. I left on Nov 7th (SPX 1475) I come back today (SPX 1482). To a mutual fund investor not much happened...maybe his fund is up a couple of pennies. But thats not what is happening to those of us choosing to do this. It's like Braveheart, some very bloody battles.

I made 3 horrendous trades that broke every rule I have and that is why I am down this month. I've analyzed it and corrected the problem and it won't happen again.

We've got the best, most generous coach out there. I've learned a lot from this group on the blog. We may lose a few battles but the leadership of Jeff, expertise of you fellow bloggers and comaraderie here will make us all winners. Stick with it you'll all see.

Thanks Jeff, for making this forum available. Now I 've got to review some of your videos.

Jamie

does JLL qualify as a bear flag ??? or do you need 3 days of pullback ???

i noticed when going through my watchlist that a few stock charts look the same (1 day pullback) and was just wondering if this price action warrants a new entry, or just sit it out.....

Okay, I can't stand it anymore. Tried to stay away today and actually went shopping! But the pull of this blog and the market has me back here. Just had to stick my toe back in. I'd been eyeing the banks since they began their mini-rally last week, just waiting for a day like today. So I took a small position in STI. It was real good to me last time I traded it in early October. Maybe I can do it again.

Can't keep a good OA down!

Doji .... wouldn't be the same without you around here ... Glad you left shopping and came back to MAKE money .. :))))

Benton

DG, Nice! This is too much fun to pass up!

DG,

I am thinking about jumping into ("fading the rally" -Kohler) STI puts, too. I just don't want to think too long as this has caused me to miss opportunities in the past. It looks like is could make a 5-7 pt. move to downside.

AMTD - Ameritrade, has some quite high open interest on the out of the money calls, particularly the Jan 22.50 and 25.00 strikes. Maybe some vertical spreads going on here. On the same note, quite high volume on the $17.50 puts. Just a thought.

Joel,

Also noticed SCHW NOve 22.5 Having high call Volume

Diana

My prior post should have noted the Dec calls not what ever nove is.

Diana

I just got here about 20 min. ago & I haven't read thru the post yet today. But I have a stupid question;

On a drowntrending stock, what does it mean if the volume is going down but the price action is going up?

Denise, I think that's called a divergence (I'm fairly new to the concept). It means that your technical indicator does NOT confirm what the chart is telling you; your technical indicator is indicating the opposite.

Do you have a specific ticker symbol?...

Denise, scratch that. After I reread your question, I don't think that's the answer you were looking for... Sorry!

CLEAN CUPS!

(Krystal, how'd you miss it?!)

CAUTION! Hateful words below. I've been biting my tongue for 3 days so please bear with me.

Let's talk about how many ways I can lose money this week. I am so sick of losing money. I am sick of news from a stupid hedge fund manager screwing my trades (LCC, got out at 3pm). I am sick of doing a good analysis bounce trade off of a one year chart at 3:45 pm to watch it fall apart in the last 15 minutes (ISRG). I am sick of watching a bull flag set up go against me this afternoon (ESRX). Can the market just throw me ONE friggin' bone please!!!!!

Stupid TOS bell. Good, go ahead and ring. You miserable three letter bastard.

That is all.

Jeff,

A. I meant to say Inverse H&S

B. Bullish Divergences in the financials and retail - take XRT for example, made me think about August - compare that to the bullish divergence you talked about in in the indexes. We are at the same point (upside of the head of the pattern) on the MACD as we were right before the second shoulder formed. COH appears to have both a small one forming (16-17days so far), and a larger one (July - current). ANF has already come back up to touch the neckline. JCP - okay not so much. MTB and STI have come above (not far but still) their shorter term downward trendlines (october through current), and were almost back to where I drew the possible neckline.

C. None of patterns are formed yet - just possibly forming (one shoulder and head approaching neckline or at neckline) and the bullish divergence seems to support the theory a bit. The stocks and spyders I mentioned look alot like the indexes did in August to me.

D. I already bowed to the MasterKohler in my original post, and said I was throwing it out there for argument's sake, and said I might be out in left field. I assumed you were reading charts better than I (duh, you're JK) but I know you don't look at MACD much (as you preach price action and volume), and when you did in August you proposed it as a possible turnaround.

E. I suppose I may be looking for reasons to be bullish.

Hey a guy can hope can't he? You da man - I'm just taking a stab at optimism.

Jeff,

You mentioned that the reason you have such a long bearish list is that you don't have enough short positions in your portfolio. Do you measure "not enough short positions" by your total portfolio delta? And if so, do you try to keep your SPX beta weighted portfolio delta close to zero or imbalanced slightly depending on your short-term market posture? With all this crazy volitility I try to keep mine close to zero.

Options Geek-

For Jeff's opinion on beta-weighting, check out the Trader Chat, p.4- I posted a similar question under "Weighted Deltas". Also, look @ the comments from the daily blog on 11/5 "Closing Remarks" & the 11/6 post "Alpha". Hope that helps!

- Todd

Hey jeff or whoever can answer this for me. what kind of play are you taking on cnx? is it an anticipatory trade for a breakout or are you playing off some support? From what i can see the diagonal support broke a few days ago but now it is there again.Are you ignoring the temporary breakthrough of the diagonal trendline and taking a trade with a stop below this? Or are you playing it off the horizontal trendline at 50$ that it rallied from yesterday?