Built for Speed...Or Comfort?
Friday, November 16, 2007 at 02:12PM 
I also recommend you check out the 5 day chart and see what you think. I'll get to my opinion in a moment.
My idea to short China was pretty timely, if I do say so my damn self. However, I am so uneasy about this one, that if the mood catches me right I will jump ship.
I am also glad I jumped the gun on CMG. This looks like the making of a decent trend reversal. I'll highlight it again on Mondays watchlist, stay tuned.
I also nibbled on some more FCN, I re-upped my ante with AMLN, and chased it with some SINT. I typically don't enter too many trades on Fridays. Just the essentials.
HANS is a great example why you don't trade "broken" stocks after the gap. NUVA, despite all the controversy doesn't look as bad here at the close. That's because the dipshit that downgraded it bought up all the shares that you sold at the lows.
I'm still long...and trying to get someone fired over this madness.
Since I normally give my market forecast on Mondays, I will jump the gun and say that I am slightly bullish heading into next week (Gasp). It's typically a bullish week for the market ahead of the holidays, and keep in mind we held support like there was no choice in the matter. If the market is going to move lower, another bomb needs to drop (not literally). I'm not expecting huge rallies, but I imagine we drift higher.
Finally, I hate to mention it again, but remember the "Sweet 16?" "Of course I do, Jeff. You remind me of an ATM machine! You should go on tour!" 16 stocks to short, 13 of which are still down today. The three rallies consisted of $0.10, $0.30, and $0.76. Collectively, $1.16.
Remember...the market was up today.
In closing, I will acknowledge that this was a rough week. Had not taken profits last week, and traded smaller position sizes this week, I might not have made any money this week. I want you to start paying closer attention to shorter term charts, keep an eye on how volatile the daily ranges are, and watch volatility (implied & the VIX). As I have warned, things seem to be changing to an extent. Make sure you can adapt properly.
Have a great weekend. Forget about the market for the next two days. I'll try to kick Monday off with something fun. Since I wasn't able to give away free underwear for my 1 millionth visitor this week, I'll find another competition of sorts to make things fun.
See you Monday.
UPDATE: If you have been having a hard time trying to get me to answer e-mails lately, here is how I have been treating my messages...
Reader Comments (49)
always wanted to say that!!
thanks for all you do Jeff
question,,,do you get some coin if we click on the ads on this page? I for one hope you do.
Sue,
Yeah...but remember, I have no agenda here. In my opinion, they look festive, and are great decor!
thanks for the honest answer Jeff
guess we know what to do addicts;)
oh,,,and I KNOW you have no agenda other than to help us
The market drifted the right way for me today with my KBH short calls at 25 expiring worthless and GRMN throwing a Hail Mary for my 80/90 short put spread to also dissolve away. I put in an order to sell off FCX if it was under 100 with three minutes to go in the day and it got snatched away, only to close four cents over $100. Oh well, we have to draw the line somewhere. FSLR was a champ today, one of the few bullish stocks I have any confidence in.
As we drift along next week, keep a short leash on your driftwood.
Stan
Addicts,
I will not be around that much the next few weeks. Monday is opening day bear season, then Thanksgiving, then the follwing two weeks are deer season. I'll check in every so often from a tree, and wish you all well.
When I do get back, I have some thought, ideas, and a "plan" that I would like to deploy. It revolves around my watchlist idea I promised you guys, and I will deliver. Stay tuned, here comes RTTKL.
Figure it out.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!!
Welcome to the blog Early Bird.
Raimo and Gang of OAs,
TGIF! Jeff - enjoyed reading your words of wisdom and advice. As you teach - it is ALL in the charts - the S&P held above a strong base that only gets stronger - "the longer a stock stays at support area the more likely for it to trend higher". As I and others have said many times this week - the trend is still intact - for now and until proven otherwise - trust them! The sideways - range bound action of most of the week is a hard market to trade in no doubt but things will change and we must be prepared.
Raimo - have a great bear hunt! I hope you get the "leader" and bring his head to Vegas for a celebration dinner! Thanks for the personal welcome as well! Glad to be here.
Have a great weekend OAs and as Master Jeff ordered - Let us all take a break from the madness called trading.
Okay guys, I started a thread for RTTKL. Let's hope this one is not rated R! (giggle, giggle)
hey OA's,,,we have a title to defend,,have you voted for Jeff on the best business blog for 2008,,never too early to pull away from the pack,,beanie is actually in the top 3
Jeff,
Is that not the most beautiful head & shoulders pattern you have ever seen on the spooz? Retest and the lot. I know the market is traditionally up Turkey Week, but the pattern. What say you?
Cheers,
Arty
Beanie is a bag of hot air... that makes me ill.
raimo trades the kohler list
don't kill all of the bears I am shorter than Tim Knight right now.
Cheers,
Arty
Jeff,
Late post I know but Iloved the IT video. Just a suggestion. Try wearing your plaid shorts while on the ledge. It makes you look that much more desperate and maniacal. If next week is like this week, save me a spot on the ledge!
OA's, have a great weekend.
Sue, YES! I've already voted....overly excited about this blog, I guess... :)
BTW, the new Raimo acronym thread is in the trader chat.
Krystal,
I knew it!!I bet you have also done some other clicking ;)
Sean,
I wish I would have brought my "short tie" and derby hat. That would have nominated me for an award.
Jeff
Just viewed your foray into film-making!! Loved it; just don't let that new career take you away from trading and this blog. How many talents can one guy have??
I owe you a Big Thank-you. I have learned much from following your blog. Last spring/summer when the market took a dive my account dove right with it. That was when I was still smokin the hope-ium. This time around I have learned to listen to the market, be diversified, risk managed, AND be nimble and Quick. This time around I have been able to manage the volatility and have been taking in profits in this environment... YEAH!! THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO. For those of you that have been down in this environment I hope this can be encouraging; cuz I know last year felt devastating to me. If I can get it you can too; just use the great learnings and support here.
Jeff, Lastly what is your take on BA? Your old 'controversial' call that I won the DVD's on. Looking like some great topping formations here - double top and/or H&S confirmed. Disclaimer: I entered yesterday.
Loretta
Arty,
I don't know my man. That trend clouds the canvas of the picture you paint. How about a triple bottom at the bottom of a short term downtrend?
No bueno?
Sue, too funny! And I'm not trying to be mean to the other blogs, but I think we're gonna win by a landslide next year. I know, I'm such an OA snob! :)
Jeff,
I think the plaid shorts, short tie and derby hat may not get you an Oscar but most definitely a Razzie.
My 4 highlights for today:
1) Movies: IT video & the Star trek video-both made me laugh out loud
2) Stopped losing $, thanks (Jeff) to the puts, especially MDC & a good call on ESRX (no pun intd). Enough for a cup of coffee--well, a little more than that.
3) Made my first batch of +mas potica (an all day affair) thanks to such a stupid market & still being gun shy. Checked it periodically, but there wasn't much to miss. Pounding dough was a good way to vent.
4) It's Friday.
Amen, Mary Beth!
Did you motorboat them? I bet you did you motorboatin' son of a bitch! LOL.
I made a slight amount on two day trades, 1 worked out, one didn't but my winner out did my loser, as it should, sadly the loser would have been a winner, I had my line slightly too tight. But I traded the plan.
Ben
Jeff,
Thanks for all you do. I traded options on the stocks from the watchlist that fit my rules and made money this week. I MADE MONEY THIS WEEK! Huh, that sounds nice and it has been a while. Thank you!!
Have a great weekend!!! See you next week!
Jeff,
Loved the video you guys did. Thanks for all the great plays. I think this is a first for me that I made money on my puts even when the market was up. Yahoo.
Jeff, thanks for everything. I did great this week and and a lot of that is b/c of your help.
OA's, hope you all enjoy the weekend!
Checking in briefly from Westchester NY where the foliage is at it's peak this weekend.
Have an intermittent internet connection so until and unless I can get it sorted out, I will be scarcer than I originally thought.
Still trying to figure out Raimo's other acronym...RTTsomething else. Did he ever post that anywhere?
Jeff,
The reason I try never to take the other side of a trade to the Master. If we rally next week I will be in some trouble.
Si Bueno,
Arty
Yes,checking in from Hawaii. I think the time difference works to my advantage,and am only catching the last few hours of the trading day.
SPX yep bottoming pattern(5 day chart). definitely tough week,but ended it making some $$ so that's always good.
Jeff, next year's halloween costume for you...human ATM machine.
as for your video nice job.....but we need to talk!(I feel a little left out.) lol. Nah, great work,nice f/x. Call if you need any help.
I have been reading this blog for quite a while and I just want to thank all of the OA's and especially Jeff. I am constantly amazed by his wisdom and generosity. I am not confident enough to offer anything up, but just wanted to say thanks. After being down about 60% in my very small account, I am slowly building myself back up to even, 1 contract at a time.
Welcome Ohio Sue!
Ohio Sue, WELCOME!
Doji, there's a thread in the Trader Chat about Raimo's new mystery acronym!
:)
Pretty good article on Risk/Reward for anybody interested.
http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedetail.asp?ID=1116963865&MonthNameID=November&YearID=2007
Looks like part of the link gets cut off. The end of it is =November&YearID=2007
Sue from Ohio (and others): I have seen many post about being down 50%, 60%, 75% or more, and getting their account value back up one contract at a time.
Would you guys be willing to share your experiences, successes and failures, in accomplishing this? I'd like to start a thread about it as I am currently doing the same thing: recouping losses and getting my account back up in value.
I think it would be helpful to myself and to others... :)
Krystal,
Good idea!!!
I would like that. Recovering losses has recently started to click for me and I am severely challenged in my ability to give back to this great community. It takes everything in me to stay awake during market hours and I only get here, to really dig, on the weekends when everyone is away.
If I could say anything, stick with one strategy, and ONE strategy only, until you have perfected it, KNOWING you can do no wrong if the trade goes your way or it goes against you. For me, it has been REE. Thanks Raimo by the way. Once you have a certain strategy down, move onto the next. Some of you can take on several strategies at once, this almost wiped ME out, along with position size that created emotional decisions.
Anyway, start the thread and I will try to be here.
Thanks, Mike
By the way, I tried to quit about two months ago, It lasted four hours.
I love this stuff!!!
Mike
Artois-
I was going to go with Danny Devito (as I've yet to see Tim standing next to anything measurable), but I will join you in downtrend-land.
We may bounce, we may not. But I think we're going lower. How much lower is going to be the fun part. Clearly the stock market has finally come around to how bad the economy is about to get.
I spoke with a few bankers in Chicago this weekend who laughed when i asked about the economy. None were involved in subprime loans, yet all of them are feeling serious effects, and sharing stories with me about some of their big customers. Not a pretty sight.
Anyway, I gave up fighting the downtrend in the market, and it's made all the difference the last few days (including Friday which supposedly was a bullish day). This is how I see it:
Long term, of course we're all bullish. However there's A LOT OF ROOM down before that long-term uptrend is broken. Jeff's right, this market has changed and we all need to change with it.
On a side note, Jeff your picks have been absolutely en fuego lately. Borderline madness. Thanks for getting me back in the saddle. Well, about 90% thanks to you and 10% thanks to DLTR. But hopefully CMG's stock will reflect the inedible giblets i've been spitting out from my burritos lately and that thing tanks.
Good to be back in town. Traveling with 2 young kids is not something I recommend you do to lower your blood pressure.
Hey Brett! I thought you were staying away til after Turkey day. I've been chasing a couple of rug rats myself the past few days and will be until the day after T-day. I've been thinking about my one option trade that I have going now - STI puts. I also expect a little bounce here this week but I don't think it will bounce me out of that trade. We'll see.
Krystal
I will start a thread under trader chat about building back accounts one contract at a time. I would also like to hear what others have done.
Mike, same for me. I tried to 'quit' about 2 years ago - it didn't last more than one week.
Growing up I never imagined that I would EVER say this, but I'm happy tomorrow is Monday....and the markets will be open again.
TheDude,
I hear you loud and clear!!! My problem is I still have a job to go to so Mondays tug at me in both directions.
Mike
clean cups!!! new watch list
Please glance my new blog
http://onemillionlinks.biz/
Let's talk about it
Keep on posting such themes. I love to read stories like this. By the way add more pics :)
What a great blog! It is a pity that I can not find RRS address. If RRS offers a subscription service, I can easily follow your blog!
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