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« On the Confusing Matter of NVDA | Main | Market Breadth »

November Rain

I had a couple good earnings reactions today. Despite top-ticking VIP yesterday (which I hope nobody entered just for the earnings announcement...the rally occurred 2 weeks ahead of the announcement), I got a couple great moves in MW, ATW and AMWD. These were from the watchlists obviously.

Here is my list of appropriate shorts today... NVDA, MCRS, TIN, MFC, JCP, and SNDK. As you approach put ideas, look for these recent rallies in the stocks you are debating, to have increased on contracting volume.

Here are a couple of triangles...

avtr.png

bgc.png

epr.png

And for those that think I am so overly bearish on the market, rest assured I have been compounding dinero in FSLR, FFH, ATW, BIDU, ISRG, SOHU, ESRX, FLIR, MON, SYNA, VIP, etc...etc...etc... I could go over every position between every account, but that takes too much work. The aforementioned list is what comes to mind at this moment.

I don't want to defend my shorts, as you already know what they are. Unless of course you come here and don't read.

I don't any jaw dropping bullish trades today that I am not already a part of. Throw a few out there if you got'em.

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Reader Comments (48)

just wondering what people are looking at, what are your guys requirements for getting into some of these short positions, I find it alot harder to get my head around entry points for puts then i do for calls for some reason.... i dunno maybe its just psychological that if a stock is headed up in the short term its hard for me to think of reasons itll turn..... anyone got any ideas on potential trade entries????

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:17AM | Unregistered Commentercharlie

I know you asked for bullish ideas, but what about shorts on casinos like LVS or WYNN?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:26AM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

VCP (after it breaks out), SPW, EOG, IRM, YUM, DV, CBI (?), ALDN, DRQ, GHM

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:37AM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

Jeff,

A simple thank-you isn't enough. Because of your experience and willingness to share, I have had my eyes opened for me, and didn't get sucked into this bounce. I made some mistakes, true, but i made up for some of them today by closing out several calls for profits and taking some nice puts.

Oh, and NVDA is so sweet it hurts!

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:47AM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

Charile,

Look for the opposite entry you would take for a call option :)

I buy calls on stocks going down in an uptrend, I buy puts on stocks going up in a downtrend.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:49AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

Sarah,

I might consider this one just because the last trade you put me in front of made me rich.

You rock

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:51AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

KWK once again flirting with its neckline. Great debate in trader chat on this one. At entry point for some of us and getting close for others.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 11:53AM | Unregistered CommenterBen3

Jeff, short MCRS??? that had to be a typo.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:00PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

thinking about buying some puts on NVDA if it drops below 32.50

down trend, had a price bump today, it was mentioned here, 32.50 seems to be support for the short term so im thinking if it breaks.....

any ideas on this for an entry to this????

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:02PM | Unregistered Commentercharlie

Jeff,

I know you would want to slap someone upside their head for asking a qustion like this..... But here it goes..

I have been in VIP with a call option and I have a pretty good profit. You know what happened today with earnings and I am still up quite a bit but I have a dimished profit... In the future when earnings are coming, is this where we buy a put to protect, and would one make it a rule to do so every time. I was in the same situation with CROX and I said I would buy a put next tim, but I didn't cause I saw VIP going strong into earnings.

GO CHARGERS!!!!!!


Thanks,

Tony

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:07PM | Unregistered CommenterTony Sciarrino

Tony,

Allow me to offer that VIP looks pretty good today, in light of the recent selling in the markets. If it holds $35 here, i think it offers a fantastic entry.

And as one who's posed this question to Jeff a few times, NO you don't buy a put to protect a call position. You either sell a portion or sell all before earnings, and plan for it when you take the trade.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:11PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

Bob Raimo -

Looks like the Big 3 (DOW, NASDAQ, SP500) will do what we discussed they would do for the day... :)

Be interesting to see the close now...

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:19PM | Unregistered CommenterEarly Bird

Brett,
Help me out here (maybe I need glasses)
What do you see on NVDA?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:19PM | Unregistered Commenterjym

Jeff,

So glsd I could help contribute to the Kohler Klan college fund.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:24PM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

I can't spell either...glad:)

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:24PM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

jym,

Did you read my post? It was on my list of put candidates.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:26PM | Unregistered CommenterOptionAddict

Jeff

Thanks again for all the "good stuff". I'm curious about your read on ATW. My chart showed a symmetrical triangle. I took a short position on tuesday when it broke down below the ascending line. You apparantly had it as a long position. What am I missing?

Thanks again for all your help!

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:28PM | Unregistered CommenterStretch

Jeff,
I did. Other than that (which is a great reason by itself to take the trade) what is the pattern/resistance you see. I'm sure it's there I just don't see it.
Unless you mean resistance at ~33.9?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:31PM | Unregistered Commenterjym

When I was having TOS web issues the other day I finally downloaded the desktop software to my computer.

This is SO cool having the CNBC on the TOS desktop software. I don’t care so much about listening to the “talking heads” all day long, but, I get to listen to or watch Erin if I feel the urge.

Since yesterday, I too have bee doing what Brett said earlier about taking profits on some real good bullish positions and working in some good bears at good resistance levels.

Thanks for the reminder on NVDA! I haven’t gone through my end of the day moves yet, but will real soon.

Thanks Jeff, Brett and all OA’s.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:48PM | Unregistered CommenterLogan

Logan,

You can look at Erin, but you can't touch.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:50PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

Brett,

Sometimes we need to leave well enough alone.

At least I can smile at work now.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:53PM | Unregistered CommenterLogan

what support levels are people looking for NVDA to break before purchasing some puts??? i see the very short term support at $33 or the longer term support at $32 (or just above it) ?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:53PM | Unregistered Commentercharlie

Charlie, the time is NOW! We are at retest area!

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:55PM | Unregistered CommenterLogan

Jeff, may I take a stab at this?

I have no idea if this is what Jeff was looking at, but that's the beauty of trading. Perhaps we see different things, but still bearish.

I see a complex h&s top with a neckline from 9/17 to 10/29, and carried through. Today was a nice retest of that.

There is a nice lnog-term trendline below around $30, so factor that into your analysis.

Does that help? Jeff, just curious if that's what you saw too.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 12:56PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

I agree with you Brett and the upside volume is unimpressive.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:00PM | Unregistered CommenterLogan

Lol, thanks for that logan, so if it breaks above 33.75 or so whatever that resistance level is are we planning on dropping it for a loss? but we`re hoping that its bounces off that resistance and continues its downtrend for a bit???

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:01PM | Unregistered Commentercharlie

Well said, Brett

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:08PM | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Jeff
i know you were watching CMI for a h&s break, but what about a bearish bounce??
looks like it has rallied up to a down trending diagonal area of support for a bearish bounce play (if it turns down from here)

what do you think?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:08PM | Unregistered Commentertonya

Jeff,

It goes without saying that trading takes patience, and that we can't expect our trades to be instantaneous winners (or losers for that matter, but at least giving us a quick answer as to whether we're right or wrong), so can you give us an idea of how long you might typically stay in a trade, without your target being hit, or your stop-loss, in order to find out if you're right/wrong about a trade? A couple of hours? A couple of days?

thanks!

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:29PM | Unregistered CommenterSausalitoMike

new oa with question on nvda
what strike and month is the groups favorite ?? and why
i am looking at the jan08 32.50 put

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:34PM | Unregistered Commenterjack

Tonya, my .02 on CMI,

I have the same analysis as you. It looks like a good bounce trade with the next level of support around 105. Options are pricey (to me anyway). Even out of the money are a little high.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:35PM | Unregistered CommenterAmy

NILE appears to be breaking support. Barely.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:41PM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

Jeff-

"As you approach put ideas, look for these recent rallies in the stocks you are debating, to have increased on contracting volume."

Do you mean, look for rallies that occur with low or decreasing volume? Can prices rally on low volume?

Sorry, I'm having a hard time figuring out this one out, though I did just get back from Planet Stoopid (X-mas shopping at the local mall).

Thank you!
Lara

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:42PM | Unregistered CommenterLara

Brett,

What do u think of gme for put play?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:45PM | Unregistered CommenterPat B.

Pat,

I don't like GME as a put. Plus I keep hearing great things about gaming (including Guitar Hero which is supposed to be the best game ever).

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:49PM | Unregistered CommenterBrett

FAF just broke my line today.
Computer crashed,
Grandma's hurt.
Kids are sick.
Cat's hurling hairballs all over the carpet
Hampster died
Snowing.

I should write country music.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:52PM | Unregistered CommenterChris and Catherine

Lara

You've got it. That's exactly what he means. Prices increase while volume declines. Usually means that the buying power behind the price move upward is diminishing. Happens all the time. Good luck.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:54PM | Unregistered CommenterBen3

Thanks Brett for your opinion.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 01:56PM | Unregistered CommenterPat B.

Off to the locker rooms for a Pep Talk and strategy session....

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:02PM | Unregistered CommenterEarly Bird

Chris,
I'll bring the moonshine and you make the cornbread. We'll have a pity party, but leave the cat at home. K?

:-)

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:03PM | Unregistered CommenterLaney

AMY
thanks for your input on CMI, i agree w support @105 and the put options are a lil pricey....but it could be worth it for a 10 point move....

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:10PM | Unregistered Commentertonya

CLEAN CUPS!!!

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:14PM | Unregistered CommenterKrystal

Lara, if I may answer for Jeff on this - Yes. Of course stocks can rally on low volume. Look at FISV action yesterday for one (just because I happen to be looking at that one now).

Man, I hate coming home 10 minutes before the close with lots of stocks that are potential buys (or sells)but not enough time to plan the trade properly. At this rate, I'll be in cash until April when season is over down here and I finally have some time.

Jeff, thanks for the added list and the article which I will read in a bit. Hope to be able to jump into some stuff soon.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:18PM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl

I guess I have a question on Prophet charts. When I look at the charts Jeff posts the patterns are very clear. Then I go to my charts at IT an look at BGC and the traingle is not near as apparent to me.

Anybody else have that issue ?

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:30PM | Unregistered CommenterJamie

Jamie,
Yes, I have that issue all the time and it drives me &*$#&%$ crazy!!!!!!!! I have played around with the charts, but have yet to figure out why mine don't look the same.... So I would love to know why as well.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 02:40PM | Unregistered CommenterLisaG

I'm with Brett on the MCRS typo. Don't quite get the short reco on that one, but appreciate the others.

If it makes you feel better, Jeff, NVDA was on my radar before your post, so I am learning your teachings. Thanks for your patience with us trading neophytes.

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 03:21PM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

Brett,

Thanks.....

Thu, November 29, 2007 at 05:21PM | Unregistered CommenterTony Sciarrino

For the three triangles Jeff posted, is he bullish or bearish?

Sat, December 1, 2007 at 11:06PM | Unregistered CommenterJim Collins

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