After Hours Surprises
Wednesday, November 7, 2007 at 05:21PM Feeling violated? Puzzled? Overcome with emotion?
Stop it.
Yes, it is true…the market will open lower tomorrow. Don’t fight it. Cisco decided to miss earnings after the bell, which also shows various profits being let go in some of the big name four letter ticker symbols. Be careful. Take profits.
Speaking of after-hours, I implore you to speak out if you took trades on either ZUMZ or FSLR. Those are impressive numbers being printed right now, and you are deserving of all that they have to offer.
I love days like today where the shorts run the table. Allow me to share the big gainers I had running today. Don’t worry, you are familiar with all of them. CVH, TSCO, JCP, AMLN, ARW, EQ, JCG, LCC, KIM, LM, SNDK, SVU, AVTR, STI, JLL, MDC, MTB, NIHD and MER.
I could talk about some amateur gains in my long positions…but short lists aren’t worth the mention. Amateur gains on a day like today make me feel inadequate.
I’m eyeballing a few modest pullbacks in the following stocks, take a look…
APD- Right at support...

PCZ- A little extended...but a solid intermediate term play on Canada

OXY- Retest

FWLT- Wants to brekout. Let it.

I’m teaching Mastertalk tonight, so join me there if you’d be so kind. Throw suggestions my way if you have a topic of preference. See you tonight...or tomorrow perhaps.







Reader Comments (108)
Since Jeff asked for comments and since he has been my main teacher in how to do this stuff .... I pulled this comment from the previous post .... to show how stupid I could have been .. but spared myself the pain this time:
I had ZUMZ in my order book in the last 1/2 hour today - ready to pull the SELL trigger because of such a reversal in this down day ... Remembered I get clobbered when I don't abide by my rules - and it had not hit my target nor had it come back to resistance .. it was in the middle .... I held back ... and what do you know, I get rewarded for what I should have never questioned ... my dang rules!
Rules are Rules .... they mean nothing if I don't abide by them. I have sweat bullets and lost money in developing them ... So one - at this point tonight - went in my favor - YEA!
Good for you, Benton! :-)
I'm in limbo also, guys. No stops hit...gains given back... and all that junk!...
Laney, you handle Planet Stupid for a while. I'm going to drown my sorrows in some homemade brownies... and then those'll go straight to my hips!
:(
Benton,
I am ashamed....one of the few times I did not follow my rules....and I had sold Zumz, my last half of it, yesterday. Between that and China this week, I have been violated. But I did some violations myself, like selling my ong position on GOOG today near its high to lock in MASSIVE gains, and then grew a set of brass testicles (soemthing the Phantom Poet wishes he had), and immedetiatly shorted it for more gains. As a matter of fact, Kim had called me just when I was doing it and the call delayed my order and made me a few extra bucks! Thank You Kim!!
Gotta love it when Jeff steers the big ship...
Yes Benton, good for you. Glad somebody followed their plan on ZUMZ! I obviously have some work to do on the emotion thing....
LisaG, every time I start feeling like I've got the emotion licked, BAM!!! I screw up...
Oh...
Benton,
Great job in following your rules. Your story sounds almost exactly what I was experiencing with the large candle and high volume ... intimidating ... trade the trend, play the pattern, I'm still in.
Awww, Krystal, big hug sister. We survived and we will live to trade another day.
Look at EPR from Jeff's watchlist. EPR is down 1.80 today but it is still sitting at the neck line of the H&S. Could be a good entry tomorrow.
Krystal,
I hear ya. I have actually been much better with it--days like today no big deal (account down very little) since I've done a better job with diversification. So that panicky feeling that I used to get has subsided. However, I let the overall market impact my original plan on an individual trade. So I've still got some work to do.... I'll get there. Eventually.
I sold out of a couple of my positions that were close to their lines on the assumption we were going lower so I could buy some SPY puts, since my GOOG daytrade left me without needed settled cash, oops.
I am glad I did though, I waited for a final break on the SPY bought puts. Hopefully they will pay off and help me avoid excess losses, although I do have half my postions in puts and the other half calls, KSS was going up today oddly, didn't break my line though.
Overall, I feel good about my positions, the others haven't broken my lines yet, but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
Ben
My puts today got me back to their entry prices. So I made amateur money, tomorrow may be a winner. I own a single contract of ZUMZ. Woo hoo! I'm gonna be rich.
Too bad I have to spend the whole day in corporate diversity and inclusiveness training learning how to be more senstive.
Happy Trading!
Laney and LisaG, You know what's funny?... The other day when the Dow was down 360 something points, I didn't even notice. I knew that the Dow was down, but I didn't realize how much until I listened to the Cast that night. I just traded my plans. But today... oh today, will live in my memory forever as an example of what NOT to do (read: don't trade with emotion).
My brownies are almost ready...
Lisa,
That's me, too. After Friday 10/19, I did a lot of evaluating of my own personal feelings and since then, I have been trading much better. I am really diversified now so that a day like today doesn't affect me too much.
Diversification took a lot of the emotion out and I was OK with all of my trades today except ZUMZ. I don't know why, I know better.
Actually, I do know why. When I posted on the trader chat about ZUMZ, Raimo commented that he got out yesterday. That affected me and it should not have. I got out because he got out instead of following my plan.
They say it all the time, make the trade your own. I didn't, I made it about someone else's trade.
Raimo, I hope you know that I mean no malintent. I respect your opinion a lot but I still should have done what I knew to do.
Laney, I've done that before, gotten into or out of a trade because someone else did. Don't worry... you'll live to trade another day, and so will I...
:)
I'm new to this forum. Can someone hook me up to where "Marketcast" and "Mastertalk" is happening.
ChasJ
mastertalk and cast are on investools,,,if you dont have access,,,I think you can get marketcast on itunes,free,,but have to buy mastertalk thru investools
Laney,
I've been there before as well... As some of us were blogging about it the other day, Jeff chimed in and reminded me (us) that current patterns take precedence over older support. However, I made the trade my own and did sell half as planned . So I am allowing myself to feel good about one part of it. Even though it wasn't to my benefit! Nice gains on it regardless, but talk about cutting your winners short. ..
Oh well. I'm over it. Till I look at the option price tomorrow!
=============================
Success comes in small losses
=============================
For me anyway. If today was 2/27 I would have been down 10% and today I am down $11.60 I was worried because I thought we were going to get a bounce so took profits on puts and was ALL bullish (+433 delta!) but one put.I had limited time today so finally toward the end of the day rebalanced to -34 delta. The progress I see in this is just amazing. You all are smarter than I am so you get faster and higher results but I am coming up behind you.
Kim, thanks for the birthday wishes you are most kind. My family is now getting upset that I have not joining them for my birthday dinner and now do I break away for the Mastertalk? Sorry Jeff I guess I have to catch the recording.
ChasJ, just to elaborate on what Sue said...
The Marketcast is something you must listen to. Our blog host Jeff and his partner in crime Eric host it every so often. If you have InvesTools, it's available on the homepage (at the bottom). (Like Sue said, it's free).
Mastertalk is a subscription available for purchase through InvesTools.
Glad to have you here!
:)
Happy Birthday Bob!
Laney, (all addicts)
You have heard Jeff and myself say this over and over again..do not take a trade unless you have done your own analysis, and put together your game plan. I am totally fine with my ZUMZ trade...I made excellent money, hit MY target, NOT JEFFS, and traded accordingly. Am I really ashamed I got out....NO....I followed my plan and got at at what I felt was my target. I do not trade like Jeff, vice versa (though I wish I could!!)
So Laney, I take no offense.....we all trade at our own risk. And we are all at some point influenced.....Jeff has had a HUGE INFLUENCE on me, and all for the better. That is why he is the BIG KAHUNA, and I love the guy.
Okay, guys, where's that IT bear search...? You know, the one that says something like "Puts before they happen" or something...
Anybody know? Seems like it's under the strategies tab, but I can't find it.
All hail Alpha Jeff,
repost from trader chat.
I'm in ZUMZ. My target was 34 however I was reevaluating and thinking about getting out at 37 because I have Nov. paper. My rational for staying in was as follows: I saw that they were due to report October sales after the bell and decided to hold till after. I attributed the spike today to people betting on better than expected results and decided to hold in the hope of a lousy report (due to overall weakness in retail) or even if good news ,a decline tomorrow on people selling the news. I gotta admit I was twitching at the end of the day.Apparently the news was lousy ;)
Please feel free to rip my analysis to shreds. I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks.
Once again
All hail Alpha Jeff
Krystal, look in the archives. One of Jeff's searches from way back is called Anticipating the Bounce Part II, which is the bearish search you're thinking of I believe.
I think the way the market is acting, you can pretty much throw a dart and find a bearish play, though not necessarity at REE.
Raimo,
Agree. We have to make sure we make the trades our own... In the past I have entered trades without having a solid plan that I was comfortable with--got in because so and so was trading it. However, more often than not it came back to bite me in the @$$. However, I have learned to be more selective. If I'm not comfortable with a trade after doing my own analysis, I move on to a different one. It is definitely very easy to be influenced by the more experienced, successful traders. No doubt about that. The key is to make sure we are learning from the influence, and not just being a follower....That being said THE BIG KAHUNA has also been a huge, incredible influence for me! And so have you. I will admit a few times I was just a "follower", but those days are gone! Now I am sucking up all the knowledge that I can--thank you! Therefore, can I go on record to say that I love you both???
i missed "oil going to 100" live today, so I just checked it out, Eric did a great job explaining things, however Jeff's voice wasnt recorded. ahh well
Raimo,
Thanks for referencing my brass testicles. They are legendary, at least one of them. The other just makes a very nice chime in the wind......like in the Santa Ana's. I feel free as a Barn Swallow!!!
DG, THANKS! I'll definitely look it up. Thanks for pointing me in the right direction! :)
friggin FSLR, I missed it by one day waiting for funds to transfer but noooooo I'm in RCI and AKS. at least POT o GLD keeps me in $3.35 gas.
HANS you %^$*&%%$!
LisaG,
I'm not sure if that is permissible here. Loving someone else, that is :)
Jeff, yes I came back to hear more than half of your MT. Good job as usual and I liked the integrated sound.
Thanks Sue. At my age the kids are more excited about it. We had candle lite dinner, with a fire (yes in southern California) and even a cut rose from the garden all a result of my daughter's design.
DG, I found the search I was looking for on IT. Thanks, again!
Hey Krystal,
I found a search called "Finding Puts Before They Move." That may be what you wanted. The one coaches have recommended to me in the past is "Down Trending Stocks with High MACD." I have had success with that one. The first one I'm not too familiar with, but it has a title close to what you asked for. Both are under Strategy Searches in the Momentum Searches archives. If I counted right they are 11th and 17th down the list respectively.
HTH. I am reluctant to share trading ideas/strategies until I get better at this, but finding a prebuilt search I can help with!
Andrea
Hi Jeff, I actually have 2 trades on FSLR (DEC 07 140 & MAR 08 170). I entered in the trades during the last 2 breakouts and had posted the trade 2 weeks ago on your blog. I have healthy profits so far but with an after hour pop of $40, I cannot wait to see the results tomorrow! I missed ZUMZ but got into MDC, SVA, THQI recently and JAH today.
I love FSLR! wheeeeeeeeeeee
I'm raising target to $1,000 from $500.
Our first target of $200 has already been hit.
booyah.
Jeff, Lisa can love us both, Jeesh man, I already I admitted loving you...
Phantom this comment is OFF LIMITS BROTHER!
LOL....
Andrea,
Welcome! I have found that just putting the ideas out here will help to make you a better trader quicker. Who knows? You might just come across the next FSLR! We can tend to be direct in our opinions but all with the best intent in mind.
Andrea, that's exactly the search I was looking for. Many thanks!
That's all good. I am getting clobbered this morning with HANS. hope my stop works.doesnt really matter. My calls will probably be worth .05 at open.
for those that missed FSLR, don't worry there will be many more chances. This company is still very young. I took my first trade at 60,road it 119, and my second trade entered at 102 who knows where it lands after this morning(215). I'm sharing this not to brag,but to point out that these 2 trades have pretty much made my year. Lots of other smaller wins and lots of small losses. The story is true, it only takes one good trade to change everything and make you very profitable :)
HANS down 18% so far after hours but the earnings /outlook were good, I don't get it.
This market is acting crazy. I remember Jeff and Eric being bearish after the rate cuts and now I thing things are playing out. Regardless, I feel comfortable with these price movements. I have been selling into strength and buying puts and buying calls into weakness and covering.
If I would use the 3 pm and 3:30 rule I would be making more money. Regardless, when you have puts calls and position correctly it feels pretty good.
I have a couple of good opens this morning, hopefully, AIRM, PBR, PCZ, ZUMZ, JCOM,EWZ,KSS,SSL,stp and some bad ones like HANS, ZNH and some that are just sitting dead in the water.
Thank you for teaching
What IS with HANS???? I read the company news on corporate snapshot. The news sounded fantastic to me. What did I miss?
On a good note, Dan sold Rimm yesterday morning on the opening run up.
Barbara
Anyone in RTP? Up 103.50!!! Pre-Market
Looks like futures are up today. Whoo-hoo. Another roller coaster ride.
the only thing i see on HANS is that estimates were about .48 and they cvame in at .46. But you are right, this way over reacting. I am just gonna hold on for a bounce or just let it go.
FSLR - I had picked up a couple of the DEC 165s and held them. Thanks for throwing yet another great opportunity out in front of us Jeff!
Jym, no but WOW!!
David$, are you short JCOM? If so, I see a descending triangle. Is that what you see?...
Michelle, too funny! Hasn't this become the norm, though? Up one day, down the next? Jedi Kohler would have one word for us: diversify! :)
Does anybody see TSL as a cup 'n handle breaking out today?