Don't Blink Today Folks...
Thursday, November 8, 2007 at 11:10AM Technology stocks finally see some weakness, Bernanke calls for a period of Slow Growth, and Retail stocks still suck. Now all hell breaks loose.
Start to modify your game plan folks. Be quick to take profits again, shorten your time horizons, and be selective on how you choose to play options. They are getting more expensive right before your very eyes. The VIX hit $28 today….this is not good.
Most of my activity today was spent taking profits and cutting losses. I hate to see stocks like ZION, AMLN, and TSCO force me to take some profits, even thought I still kept a good amount of skin in the game.
I also hate to see good profits go bad, even though they are reduced positions…BIDU, SOHU, RIMM, EMC, and HANS have me feeling a little emotional today. Don't worry, I'll get over it.
I'll come back to HANS in a minute.
My long positions in FWLT, GLDN, FSLR, APD, JEC, MON, OXY, GLD, VIP, WFR and CTRP have surprised me a little today…and my shorts in JCP, AVTR, JCG, LCC, KSS, SNDK, TM, OSK, JLL, MER, NIHD, UA, ZUMZ, and WSO have exceeded expectations. I love finding balance in this type of market.
In closing, I just received an e-mail from an old friend asking when or if he should sell CROX. Anyone have an opinion?
And last but not least… In loving memory of a good friend, a game changer, and a conversation piece for thousands of addicts across the world…I salute a fallen soldier. HANS.
Reader Comments (44)
What a day! Fantastic! My HANS puts went to the moon. This is the kind of day that puts a swagger in a bear's step. Hey, Jeff - - yer probably a lock for those Blogger's Choice #1 spot next week - good luck!
Tim, congrats! Ahh, the eternal bear... :)
Bringing this over from the last post:
TSL...
I've got one call contract on it. It's down $1.42 right now, and my call is up $37.50 on the day? Thoughts?
If it's implied volatility, is there any way to see that real time in TOS? ProphetCharts seems to be a day behind...
Jeff,
Appreciate your efforts in updating the blog on time while we are wondering whatz going on!! which means a lot!!
Thanks, Meena
Tim,
If you made money on HANS, I hope you also owned puts on FSLR. :)
Are you going to the award ceremony in Vegas? It is being held at the TAO. Looked interesting.
I'm done with EMC for now. The downgrade and the Dell storage purchase has the market hating EMC right now. With VMWare's stock price finally coming down from euphoric levels, I don't see EMC recovering for a while. It broke through the $20 support level earlier this morning too. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $19 within the next week or so.
Awww Tim
that was really nice....
That was nice, Tim. :-)
ISRG - is anyone buying this today? Just curious.
GS - might a good one to watch. Looks like a bear flag pole may have formed. I am watching for the flag part to appear. Forgive me if that is too presumptuous. I know I'm still learning. That's just what I've observed.
Jeff - I know its been said many times (and even then it's not enough) but thanks for your time and energy to help us grow and become better traders. My account will actually close at an all-time high today due in large part to what I have learned from you and the other OAs here. I will say it again - you are the game changer.
Tim Knight in the house? No way!
Yea, so apparently I blinked way too long by going to sleep on Bernanke. However I woke up later to check on things and I was up 4,000 at one point, now I check again and everything went to shit(I am still slightly up though).
This is where I wish I had margin to sell options with this high volatility.
Man, wish I would have kept those SPY puts, would have helped a bit today as well. Oh well. Time to shift mind sets to full on bearish? At this point though it almost seems like we don't have a TON to go down to hit 1450-1430 level, unless it is armegeddon.
What do you OA's think, both BIDU and GOOG look like they are pulling back to diagonal support but obviously the large correction on this volume is concerning...
Hey Jeff (& all),
I'm trying to decide whether to take some unrealized profits off the table on some PUTS I've held for a few/several days. NTRI, LM, and VSEA. (I understand this is totally my decision.)
I've had some problems with exits--not exiting soon enough (especially with currencies, argh).
I trade mostly flag breakouts and set the swing targets using the flag poles, per IT methods. Some price targets get hit, while others don't.
So I wait--only to see the little f'ers turn into a loss or breakeven, or hit my moved-up stoploss (at much less than the high it had been at). ARGH.
Questions:
Do you use e.g. stochastics to help signal when an early exit might be called for, or do you stick with pure price action?
I trade options using DAY charts, but am thinking about dropping down into HOUR charts to assess intra-day price action. ...What's your view of this?
Overall, do you have any input for me on exit management, given my recent losses of unrealized gains?
Thanks for any feedback you might offer! Again, I know my trading is my responsibility, I'm just hoping to learn. Thanks again.
Barbara,
I am mostly in cash and not buying anything until I am sure where the market is going.
puts on FSLR! now that is funny. APD looks ripe for an entry.
Michelle, I think I'm gonna be right behind ya!
Hey Michelle-
When you know for sure which way the market is going to go, would you mind letting me know? :)
CHRIS, WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN ALL DAY! I NEED A GOOD LAUGH... PLEASE!
Yes, let me know, too! Also, let me know which stock is going to open up 40 big oones tomorrow. :-)
Just kidding Michelle.
Nice to see Tim checking up on us here!
Jeff - I have a bunch of puts which did well but are seeming to stall or get stale (GCI in particular). I'm hesitant to sell and take profits because every other put I'm looking to enter seems over extended.
When you say 'take profits' do you mean puts as well?
Peter,
Too funny. What I meant is I'm not buying any "bargain" stocks." What do they say, it's like trying to catch a falling knife. So until the indices find some support, I'm gonna sit and wait and let me puts and GLD do their thing.
You guys crack me up. I should come here and read the comments more often during the day.
Doji Girl,
I bought the same spread on RIMM. I was so close to hitting the sell button yesterday but thought that even with some pull pack, it will close above $120. I am kicking myself now.
I am praying for a late day re-bounce.
Krystal - me sound like Ben Watson Oh no! I did not mention Disneyland. Even though my kids and I are there like at least once a month I would not close with that line - EVER.
Looks like a bounce!
Looks like APD wants to break above the $100 resistance level but can't on a down day like this. Curious if now's the time to jump in before markets recover.
I'm beginning to think my timing is really screwed up. I had a couple of bullish plays that I recently entered which about an hour ago tanked really hard. So I took my losses. Now the market or at least those stocks are bouncing and my puts are giving it back. So all I've managed to do is lock in some losses while letting other profits evaporate.
Pass me the Village Idiot hat. It's my turn.
To anyone,
What happens when a company aquires 90% of the stock on which you are holding options on?
Does that company fold because the other one bought 90% of it?
I'm referring to MDG and Yamana Gold who bought them.
Sorry for the studpid question!
FANTASTIC VIDEO! You sacrificed yourself for our collective enjoyment. I have to say I am remiss in not acknowledging the fine work with the meat whistle reference the other day.
UPS was talked about as a put yesterday on the cast. Volatility in it is not to bad, but its not the fastest moving stock in the world. Thoughts?
Bad thinkgs happening to my account today.
Sure wish I had stayed away from VWM and RIMM. Luckily stops were in place and bleeding was kept to a min.
How long until I quit paying for all of the 'learning'?
Doji Girl,
Don't worry, your puts will come back and make you money, hang in there. This market is crazy! Reminds me of a few months ago with the late day rallies.
Doji Girl,
you would have to time share that hat.
Look at this rebound... Jeff, are you buyin' up everything again?
:)
DG,
I want in on the hat.Sold Mon at low bought it back at high and sold at low again. Now its back up.
ABC!! It's not easy as 1.2.3!!
Is this sucker making higer lows or is it me?
ABC needs a spanking!
so does MW... with all the retail stocks going down, Men's Warehouse is not, who buys a suit these days away? Jeff doesn't. :-)
Laney,
when did you take this trade, and what were you looking for out of it?
Wow what a bounce!
At this point my hedge plays today look to be the only thing hurting me now - I hate that!
CLEAN CUPS!!!
OK, Jodi, don't get all "Jeff Kohler" on me. :-)
I took it on 10/24 expecting a $4-5 move off of a descending triangle. I think it's not going to happen.
Jeff, That is a priceless video! I cant stop laughing. Totally the real reason I am on this blog. You make me laugh.
The other is to see Tim Knight take puts on your pride and joy and win. You guys are too funny. Too funny.
Laney,
what is your email address?
oh and switch to line charts,,,, it will make it easier to see the bottoms
Today is an example of sticking to your rules and don't panic when all goes to $hit. Make exit decisions in the last hour of the trading day. I'm sure glad I waited it out.
Jodi
gardnerfam4@hotmail.com
I'll switch now.
Thanks
Jeff,
Just saw your video "Entry, Exit, Style & Mgt." It covered my questions (above) nicely. Thanks.
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