Ten Stocks I Won't Trade
Friday, December 14, 2007 at 12:21PM With the market down, heading into the close, and a fun filled weekend full steam ahead, I thought I would take a moment to talk about a fun topic. One that each trader has experienced...and one that I take very seriously.
The topic is..."Stocks I won't trade."
This will come from personal experience, mostly emotional experiences. Have you taken a trade on a stock that totally kicked you in the ass? Even worse... for no good reason? What about a stock you have traded multiple times, and never got it right? Perhaps a stock you just plain don't like.
Here are my top ten...
10. Allegheny Technologies: ATI
This is the most recent addition to the list. In fact, ATI made the list this summer when I lost money on a failed triple top. Truth be told I have had a lot of good trades with it prior to this summer, but I have always had a special place in my heart (and account) for US Steel (X).
9. Morgan Stanley: MS
I worked for this horrible company during the Purcell/Mack debacle. I heard that a book was just written about that situation that I want to read. Anyway, I'd much rather trade GS, JPM, LEH...even PJC (which says a lot). Death to MS!
8. Hovnanian Enterprises: HOV
HOV is the proud recipient of my second biggest loss of all time back in 2004. I wouldn't even short this stock to try to make some money back over the last year because I tremble when it's name is spoken.
7. Tenaris: TS
First two times I traded this in 2005, I lost both times. It immediately made the list thereafter.What sticks out in my mind about this stock was that in 2005, it only went down 2 or 3 times. Look at the chart and you'll see how amazing of an accomplishment it was to lose money on this stock. I might have been the only person in the world to do it.
6. Phillip Van Heusen: PVH
Interestingly enough, when I make my top 50 most profitable trades list, you'll find PVH on the list. In 2006 this stock generated flags like no other. When it stopped being a "go-to" trade, I stopped liking it.
5. Ventiv Health: VTIV
Lifetime stats: 0-4. I hate this stock.
4. NutriSystems: NTRI
I am pretty close to "even" on this stock, but had a couple bad trades (one over a gap). No thanks.
3. Todco: THE
This stock holds the title of my biggest loss ever. I had to close down shop, and lay off several of my trading staff after that loss. It still hurts to think about it (took me nearly a month to recover). Even though they are no longer traded, I still fear "THE" ticker.
2. Google: GOOG
Surprised? I'm not. I don't trade this stock because I feel I am cool if I don't. Plus it doesn't react the way it should in situations when I have traded it. Even though I Google myself regularly, I consider myself too cool for GOOG.
1. Titanium Metals: TIE
The HOTTEST stock of early 2006. I couldn't go anywhere, or do anything without someone e-mailing me, calling me, sending me smoke signals, or text messaging me (before it was cool) about TIE. The stock went straight up. Never went down. In my opinion, it was the easiest trade I've ever seen my career...yet people couldn't cope for some reason. Aside from nearly quitting trading, leaving the country and committing myself from all the stupid questions, I HAVE NEVER TRADED THIS STOCK ONCE. I refused. The commotion over this stock was so bad, it automatically topped my list without me ever trading it.
That was therapeutic. I feel better.
Have a great weekend!
Reader Comments (66)
I am soooo glad to hear you say that! I thought it was just me. I hate CROX and AZO, although that's no secret.
What I do not understand is why, when the market is falling rapicdly, my puts are up and my calls are down. Down huge! It is simply not logical and as a logical person, i do not understand it. Am I not to waste energy attempting to understand and just continue to trade what I see?
Oh, Lord. I want to kick something.
Where's that damn dog...
I have been waiting for this list for so long.....thanks Mr. Kohler!
P.S. I am still chuckling at this line, " I don't trade this stock because I feel I am cool if I don't."
:-)
Hi Jodi!
Hi Laney,
I am giggling over that line too! (Mostly because I know Raimo loves GOOG - what does that say about him I wonder?)
Wish I could say I don't trade it cause I'm too cool. I don't trade it cause I can't afford it! Yet!
Laney,
I am developing rules of being an Option Addict...
1. Don't talk about being an Option Addict
2. We don't trade GOOG
(Thats all I have so far, still working on the rest)
Since beginning options seriously a year ago, I have a list going. #1 on my list? LFC .. for some reason ... I couldn't beat it ... Timing was ALWAYS wrong ....(meaning I mis-read the chart everytime!)
No more!
Enjoyed that list! I have a few of my own.
HANS (I've talked about this before) tops my list.
The others will have to wait...market moving against me in a couple of trades and I need to do something. Maybe.
Jeff, I have about a 50% profit in CRM but it hasn't hit my target. In such a schizo market, would you still hang on and wait for your target or grab it while it's reasonably good?
I ask because I had the same thing in ATW until today and now I'm facing a loss. It's been like this all week for me.
Is it just me or has everyone else had a "expletive, expletive" week? If it werent for JASO today, I would have probably closed out all my positions and whimpered off to the bar.
Come on people, let it out.
Next week will be better, it always is.
My list includes only one: SYNA. It hasn't broken its trendline since March. I get in. It buckles.
This bites.
Pffft!
:-)
The first rule of Option Addict Club is, DON'T talk about Option Addict Club!
Should we begin making soap now?
Lisa posts for me re GOOG.
Laney posts for me re AZO - 3 times I traded that one and the best I could do was break even on one of them.
DG,
Take it, girl! I took my APA profits and hid them under the mattress.
Who knows what Monday will bring. Up? Down? The end of the World?
Sorry to be so chatty, I just know Raimo's gonna yell at me. :-)
Doji,
HANS?
Sniff...sniff...
Howcome I don't understand why we would begin making soap?
Norcal,
see Chit-Chat
Yes, Jeff, HANS. Go to a 2 year chart and look at end of July beginning of August. I bought in the day before the drop. Stock (there weren't options then)
Worst week ever. Worse than all the other bad weeks combined.
Jodi - you had to have seen "Fight Club" to get the soap reference.
TSL is at the top of my list...lost a huge amount on that one, only solar play to lose money this year probably...
Good weekend all!
Jodi,
Google Fight Club
Jodi,
It's probably because you watch "normal" people movies. I have a deep and abiding love for all things Edward Norton and that's why I've seen it. Beware, it's violent.
Jeff- Don't I feel like an idiot. I proudly wear my Option Addict apparel whenever I'm at an investor meeting or seminar. I like to talk about the blog and how it's helped me and countless others. Plus it helps me meet up with other under cover OAs. Maybe I'll just put a jacket over it and flash people.
Stan
You guys crack me up....
Long: GOOG
Short JODI
Thanks guys! I googled it - I loved the pink soap. Can we have pink soap too?
Raimo - Short Jodi? Don't you want to be part of the club? You could have pink soap (is that what we do with the soap?) or better yet, when you swear on the blog, we could wash your mouth out with it....
CME Has kicked my Butt more than I like to remember.Today I got some revenge when I picked the High!
JODI!
Just bustin on ya!!
You know I would never short the JODI..(your one of my all time favorites here, well, that and I told the OptionFanatic earlier that I love him!)!
Me, Swear? On this blog? I would never!
O-fantaic...
CME...Picked the high? You got out?? I am still in ....onward and upwards...Where's Jeff, I have a target of $740 on this..
Raimo. I'm scared of CME, when I trade it I dedicate one screen just for it. I don't let it out of my sight.lol
Worst trades, 1992 when a First Interstate Bank Exec (prior to WFC aquiring them) convinced me to put all my stuff into 'mutual fund B shares" - ouch.
Next, 4 years ago, I went with a company known as Moe Ansari out of LA (Compak Asset Mgmt). The first $500K 2%, 1% for the next $500 and .75% for the rest. Keep in mind, the fees are paid prior to the start of the quarter and for the most part, most of these so-called Asset Mgmt fees are taken financial whores.
A bad day or bad stock is still better then paying someone else to manage your money. Rule #1: no one loves your money more than you do!
Jeff,
No trading GOOG!!! Guess I will be a rebel and a rule breaker!
Fantatic...that is funny...BUT...are you taking the trade within your portfolio % rule?? If not, maybe that is why you are watching it so closely?? It should not represent any more of your portfolio than any other trade...unless of course you are gambling and not trading!
Raimo, There are some trades I like day trade and CME, GOOG are a few, breaks the monotony. I keep them on a tight leash.I used to let CME as a trade and always had bad luck.
Jeff
I'm with you on ATI and TIE, both were my worst trades ever, broke my rules was up over 40% on each and next day they dumped and left me with a large loss. Ouch, I wont touch them.
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I still have 999,990 to write...let me continue:
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
I will not ever trade AZO again - EVER!!!
Benton and Jeff,
I am with you on the trades I will not make again due to deep scars:
LFC and GOOG both have always been timed wrong. LFC is my single biggest loss besides the $60,000 I lost holding a position in Fidelity Magellan over the early 2000's before the great Kohler showed me the light.
Cheers,
CC
Here's one, FCX...set the wrong type of stop and it expired. left town for a week. From a $3000 profit to a $3000 loss. sucks!
HANS sucks too.
Arty
after reading your post my tail is in between my legs. I just hope to be in your position and lose $60000 and keep trading.
God bless.
DG, "got's to know???", did you get into CF this morning. Here's your post...
Well, by the time I finished figuring out what to do with CF, it has run away. Sigh. I can't chase it here. Nice going to those who were quicker than I.
Fri, December 14, 2007 at 08:18AM | Doji Girl
This question is not to put you on the spot. Heck, I typically shoot from the hip and ask questions later. This trading stuff is different, "I shoot myself first, instead of aiming." Now, I practice aiming cuz, it's like you only have one bullet in the gun and it's a big ugly demon that wants to take my money. So, now work on taking my time with only one shot --- bang! Or, here's my money.
So, did you get in this morning with your silver bullet?
TIE --> DIE! I will never trade this stock again - yes I am one of the few that managed to lose money on this stock - a couple of times :(
This is very therapeutic - thanks for starting us off Jeff...
Hey Mike in Salt Lake,
If you care to take another shot at FCX, look at the 10d & 40d ma crossover for trading entrance and exits. I'm waiting to re-enter.
Julia
I will never trade DRYS ever again ... lol. This stock really kicked my butt. I had spread trades in three different accounts and was not able to be at my computer on expiration Friday. Needless to say I was screwed in all three accounts. Never trade DRYS.... Never trade DRYS ..... Up until then I really liked it. Sad to see it go... boo hoo!
Its GOOG for me. It too expensive and moves too fast for me to control my risk.
I am never trading genders again either. I like being a guy now.
Just kidding............ I may trade GOOG again!
Free2 - re CF, I did not get in. I watched it lose steam in the middle of the day and saw that it wasn't breaking out after all. At the end of the day it was nowhere near REE so I did not take it. If it drops back to 90-91ish, where I have support, I might look at it again.
I sold a vertical on AAPL instead.
I have a few I won't trade. I work for DE and it was second only to VIP as my biggest loser of the year. Both VIP and DE made money for everyone but me this year.
In reading the comments I see a common thread in some of them. Without putting anyone on the spot including myself. If the companies that you will never trade again taught you lessons, maybe you didn't lose $$ in them. Maybe the money was just expensive tuition.
With that being said...... I am not going to class in VIP or DE ever again.
I have no superstitions about what I see on a chart. There is nothing I won't trade (except this blog for another) if the setup looks good to me.
Nice! CF is just building a little better entry or will it be some other stock?
Are you trading the market on Saturday & Sunday? Stupid question, huh? Unless you go to your TOS Monitor page a see you are on target to make over a $1000/day this week-end with your Greek friend Theta. What's even cooler are all the (red) ITM on your Buy-Rights. Don't get me wrong, I do buy Calls and Puts but lately (since the first of Nov) my recent money has been made selling. Funny I put selling like this becuz, my profession career was high tech sales, then buying/selling businesses and - now I just invest but I guess I’m still in sales. SELL, SELL, SELL – sounds like Cramer. Have a warm week-end everyone.
My worst trade ever .....IPS! thankfully you can't trade it anymore.
Sarah,
Actually, your trade on IPS was awesome...you just had a bad option.
There is nothing I won't do! I mean trade if I get the right signal. Yeah, there are some I don't particularly care for, but, that is a one sided thing.
John
DG...
what vertical did you do on AAPL??