Real substance? I demand you write up an article about Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice... sorry, I've been in the TOS Shadowtrader chat for a few days now. It's getting nasty out there but I'm glad to see you've prepared us well. Thanks Jeff!

Jeff, do you make anything of the bullish divergence of the Dow Utilities compared to the other indices? Not making a lower low there. It is actually up today and it made a new high just a few weeks ago.

Jorge,
When you sold CYT were you able to get a decent fill or did you get out at the bid?

Vero,

I get it off the TOS real trading (not papermoney) platform. Just go into chat and click the listen button. I don't use the listening feature on the gadget's menu since it tends to lag.

Jym,

Haven't sold CYT yet. Probably doing that in the next 15 minutes. I'm waiting for a potential sell program to hit the market near the end of the day. I'll try and get it at the mid price, but I'd be happy with the bid right now since I'm up pretty big. I doubt I'll re-enter CYT though since the options liquidity for it isn't very ... well.. liquid.

Jeff,

Broken support across the board. Thanks for the heads-up.

Jorge,
Same here. I'm afraid since it's so illiquid that if try to to sell at mid, I'll knock down the bid and not get filled. (It's happened t me before.)

Jorge,

Thanks, I'll try that.

Did you see the action in SEED today? I was able to trade some intraday calls and make good money.

I want to short AMLN so bad but it's at strong support. Anyone else taking the plunge?

Yes, I am watching. What does this mean? Strong support is reached again and we will bounce, or all indexes are breaking support and down further we go? The thing that I do not see is extremely high VIX. I would think it should be higher if the market is to go down further. Please comment.

I'm with you on AMLN. It needs to break below its 52-week low for me to take some puts down.

Wow... looks like head and shoulders on the 5 year trend too... thanks for bringing it up

I don't know about the rest of you...but my brain is tired.

Jorge- on December 24th when GCI was at $39.50, I bought April 40 puts at $3. Since then I have been happily watching it drop and at the close today they are up to $5.70. You said you have 200% gains on yours? What month and strike did you buy? Just goes to show you, timing isn't everything, choosing the right strike price is just as important.
Stan

Why are you all in such a rush to dump your CYT puts? What do you have for a target? I see at least another 2 points in this trade. Am I missing something here?

Jeff, as you predicted, my DRYS ran into a reef, sinking with its cargo of WFMI.
Stan

After dinner tonight going to Barnes n Noble...anyone feel like suggesting there fav TA book.. I ran through Jeff's list and too many to choose from. I am new to using options and charting so something to get my feet wet would be best.

mike & supermarioVA

Pulled trigger on AMLN at the close. I don't mind taking a small hit if it doesn't continue lower, but I'm really sick of missing the moves 5% after the breakdown. No idea on how to get alerts other than end-of-day alerts, which don't help me intra-day. I don't have a TOS account, but I wonder if they offer intra-day alerts? That alone would be a plus over who I'm using now for trading.

Kim,
I'm on my way down with a jug of red wine. Put on the bikini, I'll put on my Speedo, white socks, and sandals, and we'll stroll the beach.

By the way, FSLR is at a perfect entry point if anyone's looking for a bullish trade. Monday's going to be interesting. I'll be in Mexico City. Land of the Corona.

1. We have a lower low on the indexes
2. If you draw a long term trend line on the 5yr/Weekly from 8/9/04 through 8/13/07 - a line which has acted as resistance many times, it hits today at 1,417.
Therefore
a. We can view today's close below 1,417 as a break of the trend line, or
b. It's close enough to the trend line that we could see a bounce on Monday.

Jeff - pls enlighten us with which way you would go, and why.

Jeff & OA's-

I've been doing lots of reading, but haven't found a book that really focuses on trading in a bear market environment. Is there one?

Jeff

Why the 5 year charts? I see the broken support but on the one year charts the $RUT is the only one showing broken support. The 5 year charts certainly suggest a medium term downtrend but surely that would not rule out a short term bounce between now and end of the month?

Sledge Hammer -

TOS alerts fire off intra day. Schwab has a similiar system. It's the only way I catch some of the moves on the watchlist before they make huge moves.

geckoJB,

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. John Murphy.

GeckoJB,

Krystal is right on the money with the book choice. Run...don't walk to get it.

Chris,

You are welcome on my doorstep anytime. Wine or not. Kim

Thx for the Rec's

I know trendlines can be very basic TA....but I tend to make them very advanced. Does anyone know where I can refer to the best source for trendline drawing.

I have been using MACD as a guide for my connections between points. For example...VIP I have re-drawn the trendline at least 4 times.

I would just like to be on the same page as everyone with this basic part of charting.

Stan,

I bought the Feb. 35s for an average price of .45 and sold today for 1.40. I was tempted to buy the Jan 35s at .10 to .15 and live dangerously but I listened to Raimo the Wise. I'm sure I could have made a bigger profit with the Jan 35s, but taking an extra month let me sleep better at night.

Doji,

Here's how Iread the chart for CYT. The green horizontal is my $$$ line and the orange is my piggish line. CYT closed between the two so in my eyes I'm a happy camper. I could have held out for another point but I'll take a 100+% return any day. My portfolio was also very delta negative (in my eyes, -350) so I pared back a bit in anticipation of what may be a relief bounce Monday.

http://investingadventures.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/cyt-january-4-2008.png

I learned my lesson today. I bought 8 OXY Feb 65 calls for $8.50 each a few weeks ago (thank you Jeff!). Yesterday, it was trading at $16.00+. My original target exit was at $16.00 and my stop loss is at $4.50. So when it hit my target yesterday, instead of selling, I figured there is still a lot of time left, and I would just hold on to them. I broke my own rules. I did toy with selling half my position, and let the other half ride while resetting the stop loss to $14.00 for those. But I didn't do it. It closed at $13.65 today. I am a pig and you all know what happens to pigs. I am sharing my mistake as others have taught me through theirs. ~Jeany

Jeff,

Saw your charts and I agree. Taking just the $SPX it landed on my FIB 78% line (start @ 3/14 shadow line and top @ 10/12 top line). Did you hold any bought PUTs over the week-end? For me, becuz of the sudden and forcefull drop, I took the exit and went to cash.

Jorge,
I see now from your chart where you get your horizontal support at around the 57 area. I drew it differently and looked at the lower highs and lower lows and drew a channel, the bottom of which comes it at about 56.50. Perhaps your horizontal support is stronger than my diagonal trendline but here's what I see:
Starting at the bottom of the gap up on June 27, connect the bottoms of Aug. 15,16 (body) and a bunch in November and that is where I see the channel. I was planning on getting out at 57.50 though because of that horizontal support.

VASOS LIMPIOS

Jeff,

Line charts show lower highs and lower lows on your 3 examples quite clearly.

SPX and INDU look like H&S tops with lower right shoulders.

I'm 100% Puts as all my Calls tanked.

Still continued to make good money as was bearish weighted.

Jeff,
My OCD doesn't allow me to make things simple. I must have perfection.

Doug

Clean Cups!

Hey guys,

if you want a strong support for the market look at the EMA(100) WEEKLY for the S&P500. This EMA is a strong support since 2004. If this EMA doesn't hold .... bye bye market.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p15672738850

Doug,
I realize that I may be late for the party, but try being consistent in the chart type you are using to draw you trendlines. I prefer line charts because there is no guess work. Unlike candlesticks where there is always the question of using the close or the open or the high or the low or the middle. I use different color lines for different periods (blue solid for 5+ years, blue dashed for 2 yrs, ...) and I have been toying with using ovals to highlight patterns. I also use green ovals to indicate my actual trade entries (to give a general idea of entry) and red rectangles to indicate actual exit points. In addition I use text notes to add a little more detail and historical perspective for when I come back to review the trade or if I get into that stock again. Remember that by definition support/resistance requires that the price stop along the trendline at least twice, but the more the merrier.

Jeff - as usual - is right that drawing trendlines is should be simple. But I suffer from a similar affliction as you, so I feel your pain.

Good Luck

Carl