Great list Jeff, but my novice eyes don't see the H&S in SYNT, can you point at the head for me?

Thanks for the great list. I already have positions in OMG,FWLT,JOYG,& POT. I think I am slowly learning!

Anon,

Have you tried looking at something longer than a 1 year chart? It might be easier to see.

The head forms is in October.

Great list! Thank you!! But I still think NIHD is no longer bearish. It's up over $4 today so far.

I'm with you Doji -- got booted from NIHD today too. This may have to go on my poo list. Seems I'm always going the wrong way or in too late or out too early. Yuck

Anyone else with small accounts and can't trade every single one of Jeffs list have the incredible ability to pick the few of them that tank?! NIHD is one example....good grief!!! :{ I want to be optimistic but I've been following this blog for months and trying to implement the principles here but I've yet to have a profitable month. Going on six consecutive down...jeesh.

Ah there it is, thanks!

Matt,
I'm with you. One of the things that I have been doing, and a new goal for the new year, is to stop overtrading. Over trading was killing me. Now I have two trades and am watching them very closely. I am taking profits when my targets are reached and I am not playing around with my lines in the sand for exiting. Last week was the first week that I actually made money in 7 weeks. Today I am up a little bit, too.

Be encouraged, you are not alone. Follow your rules or maybe you need to re-vamp them.

Hang in there!

Matt,
One other thing. Define *strong* support and resistance, that will help you and be disciplined to get out when you are at your target.

Jeff has said that in this market environment, shortening time frames is wise.

I don't have ot all figured out, not be a long shot, but maybe this will help you a little.

:-)

I will again post what I left at the bottom of the last Jeff entry for some of you newbies ... Jeff talks a lot about $VIX when it approaches 30 .... It is up 4 since the 12/21.

$VIX is like the big bad bear that wants to take your profits away and before you you wake up to see it, they're gone.

When the VIX keeps creeping up like this .. take it from one who got kicked in the butt in November ... it's much much more risky with straight calls and puts options.. Pricing becomes crazier and you have to change your strategy almost immediately. It's like - turn the curve and change or get thrown off of the road ....

Just a bit of caution for those who don't remember November....

So what are you saying Benton a straddle would be preferred in times like this?

I went ahead and entered into OMG and GILD. The reason I chose these is the MACD and Slow Stoch both made a positive crossover. The MACD Histogram also appears to be a positive divergence.

I am newbie at this stuff so don't follow me. I only looking for someone to call me out for this type of analysis or so yeah that makes sense.

Anyone want to comment?

GeckoJB -

I'm not one to give 'what to play advice here' but for me, I am moving to synthetics in order to have neutral delta ... unless the chart just screams DOWN or UP - like GS this AM ... which I am enjoying today on the downside and ESRX on the upside.

Jeff has many alternative plays for high $VIX .. check his archives. There is a recent one in there on Synthetics ... I have papertraded those for the last month and made higher profit than straight calls and puts ..

I had tripled my portfolio last year by November but lost 1/3 of the triple in November to high $VIX environment. Just trying to help others to be careful as Jeff has instructed.

Laney,

It is so good to have you back. I too chose 3 off Jeff's list that have not worked out. It seems the words of insight alway come a the right time on the site.

Matt,

Been there with ya. My strategy (added to my rules) is to place stops and stop trading when I have had a streak of 60% or better of loosing trades. Just like a time out in basketball I found it stops the momentum to walk away for a day or two. I have missed some good trades but saved my $$ in long run.

Diana

Hi Jeff
Since I am new to the site.......please help me with this question.Do you take bullish trades irrespective of the direction in which tha broader market is heading . For example I am nervous about the market as a whole but should I go ahead and buy YGE which according to me is approaching a major trend line?
Pls help
Dian

Very nice Jeff, there is so many stock picking blogs/sites, but you have it set-up great!!
I am new to this blogging world , also have "Daily Stock Picks" check it out and let me know what you think
only 2 weeks old, but my average gain each/every day...+46% yes, per day!!!! diff. stocks each day, I know the site is young but I cannt complain!!!

WWW.PLATINUMPICKS.BLOGSPOT.COM

bought BIIB jan 60 calls at 1.00, FDA approval of Tysarbi for Crohn's disease scehduled for this weekend as an end date and response date.

Bought APOL to start a strangle going into earnings tomorrow.

Hey Nick,

Sounds like an advertisement to me. There's a place for ads, and it's not in the comments section. It's in the paid ad boxes on the main page.

I am a seekian alpha writer and option trader and have written an analysis on APOl and MOS going into earnings. this is my website and my article starts with the cheerleaders.

This is a cool forum and have been watching optionaddict for awhile, great site great anlysis. love it.

http://www.wangshappytrading.com/
this is the link to my article.

YGE does not look good.If t break further Id stop out.

BG flying after upgrade today.
SEED also of interest although it is flatlining up here.

MOS will be a great earnings play either for the catalyst with a strangle or Gap Trade IV implosion after earnings. Earnings on wednesday morning.

CAM---bull flag?

yes CAM, i am bullish I like OII, FTI, SII, ATW, NOV
also.

Laney, you mentioned having only two trades right now. Might I ask... did you go with one call and one put? I'm just asking because I'm scaled back right now, too.

Benton,
Synthetics will not make you delta neutral, they will give you a delta of 1.
It's a strong directional play.

Krystal,
Yes, you may ask. :-)

I actually got into one more, I have two calls. One on VIP and one on BTU that I entered at $57. I also have one GS put that I entered earyl this morning. I am perfecting my entries. I am doing better now.

Diana,
What a lovely compliment, thank-you!

Ewwww! That sounded so haughty, "perfecting my entries." I meant, I am working on perfecting my entries.

jym,

Thanks for the correction! I should have better clarified ... implied vol and time decay offset ... similar to owning the stock position .. That particular strategy better neutralizes the volatility and expensive option premiums ... It's been safer for me ...

Sorry for the mis-state .... and I agree strong directional play ...

Thanks, Laney. I was wondering because with my being scaled back, I'm trying not to get weighted too heavily either way. :)

Jeff, many thanks for the watch list.
Any opinion on GFI? The co has pre-released quarterly losses and gold prices appear to be rolling over....

Matt,
I have been there, my friend and the thing I found that worked for me after I lost 50% of my account back in Feb last year was to scale way, way back and trade single contracts. It took all the emotion out of trading and within a very short while I'd increased my account by 25% with only trading about 10% of my original account. As I got my confidence back I started to increase to 2 contracts and so on. It taught me a lot about entries although I'm still struggling with my exits. Today I have half of three of my top performers up for sale as I've got two that are up over 100% and in this high VIX I want to take my profits and run.

Chris you did the right thing very important to stay in the game to be able to learn as you go.

A question about patience and fundamental vs. technical analysis. TKC (I also own VIP thanks to Jeff)
I own april calls on this stock. Fundamentals are good. Rocky political climate since Bhutto's murder. Stock broke my support line. Looking like 10d/40d ma crossover- one of my sell signals. I'm inclined to get out with a 9% loss--any recommendations from fellow traders?

TKC- I have a pivot line at 25.63 and another support level at $25.17. Looks oversold in the short term but you want to see it base here and consolidate to move higher otherwise I would cut my losses if it breaks 25.17. Hopefully you get a bounce and then sell out but it has taken a hit. $26.79 was the big support level pivot line that you should have stopped out on but the jobs data really pushed this one down.

Am I the only nincompoop who doesn't know what a "pivot line" is?...

Jeff,
I'm trying to figure a timeframe target on OMG.
Where is the pattern considered to start from: is it from the beginning of the ascending line and about 2 months, or is it from the resistance line and around 1 month?

Yes, Krystal, you are.:-)

J/K

Have you watched the Person Pivots presentation that TOS offers? It's on there. I watched it once, but I'm the slow kid in the back who needs at least 3-4 more viewings to get it.

I am resigning my commission as "King of the Idiots" and starting a new Village, to which I will appoint myself as President (actually... Prime Minister but that's all in the paperwork.) The Village of the Almost Competent will start business at market opening tomorrow. I am up again today and have taken half profits on all my big winners (as opposed to "weiners" which belongs to my previous Village.) I feel like I'm starting to catch on to the whole exit strategy and really regret having to go to Mexico City tomorrow where I know I won't be able to get online. I'm ready to attack Jeff's list and I have to leave in an hour. And first I have to finish the paperwork for the new Village. Perhaps I'll revert to my Inner Self and put it off until Wednesday. We'll have a Procrastinator's Wing to the Village.

ESRX and EMC are my homeruns of the day. Thanks Jeff.

Krystal... I believe "pivot lines" are normally used in the summer Olympics and involve pointy sticks and cement balls. If you find otherwise, please inform me at my new Office in the Village of almost Competents. I find overanalysis to be the dirge of my soul. Give me a pretty graph and nothing more.

Laney,

I'll have to check that out. Thanks a bunch! :)

KNDL - from Jeff's list

I'm looking to do a buy-write strategy on this one as a bull flag breakout. $6 expected move to $55 plus sell Feb 55 call for $2.25.

OK, I bought IHP right on the trendline and it shot above it. I let it go trying to follow Jeff's "close at the end of the day" strategy. (Which has saved me money in the past.) It doesn't look like it is going to come back today though. Now I'm having trouble getting filled to buy my vertical back! My bear plays are going up and my bulls are going down! arg!

Jeff,
My question is, does todays price action strike this stock from your bearish list or is it still potentially playable?

Revise that to Feb 55 for $.50

I am so tempted to take a profit on FPL which I bought on Friday. Up about 75% or so and in this flakey market I'd hate to give it back (like I did with CMED and CAM).

DG
Do what I did and sell half. It makes you feel six feet tall (and a little birdie told me that you, especially, would find that an attractive thought.)

Ok, here's my wimp move of the day...So I see my long positions in OMG and GILD starting to weaken around 2:30 I get scared, open up a put on the SP 500 feel better but wtf did I do that for? Are emotional decisions like this normal when you firtst get going?

Optiondragon re: TKC Thanks. I also don't know what a pivot line is, but had been looking at similar support.

YES .. geckoJB ...

OMG and GILD look like excellent plays ... Don't over analyze it .... they are playing the pattern perfectly to this point ... excellent volume today on both ..and even though they may pullback a little tomorrow, the pattern isn't broken until it dips below $47.28 on GILD and $60.44 for OMG ... (at least on my chart) ...

Hope this helps .. You made some good buys there today I think..... I joined you in GILD ....

JB
Emotional decisions are the Smarties of the trading world. They give you a brief feeling of well-being but you usually end up with messy hands. My SHLD started to weaken at day's end but it hadn't reached my target so I held on. Buying puts on the S&P should only be done based on strong technical information. Exorcise your emotions.

and geckoJB ... be sure you have your rules ... follow those ... If you do, those will reduce your emotions big time ... DO WHAT YOUR RULES SAY DO .... that's RULE 1 around here!

Good luck!