Victory
Wednesday, January 9, 2008 at 11:21AM Do yourself a favor and take some time to revisit the last 2-3 weeks of posts that I have offered. Here you will find timely recommendations on the large number of stocks that I have been holding puts on. Allow me to "tip my hand..."
ROP, VMC, CYT, TSCO, SLM, ATI, GES, KBH, FORM, MBI, ZUMZ, SPW, WFMI, SHLD, DRYS, BA, XL, TSO, SYNT, SINA, HOG, REG, PSB, USG, NCS, GS and JLL.
These stocks have each moved a minimum of 10%...most of them near 20%. I hope you've been there trading them with me. I would feel guilty making all the money.
And when this morning looked like I was going to have to close out a bunch of losses on the bullish side...the perfectly timed Fed rumor hits the tape and buoys my early morning losses (MOS, JASO, POT, MON, AMZN to name a few).
However not all was bad with the bulls...CVD, HUM and PBR held their ground this morning in the face of a pretty nice drop in the averages. Anything else wasn't worthy of an honorable mention...except yesterdays defensive plays.
I'm sure you don't want to hear me talk about the money I made today, or what I was trading (since you already know). What I will tell you is what I have done in response to today's price action and rumors.
Since I have been stopped out of a few bullish trades, I am trying to play catch up. Here is what I added this morning...
I scaled out of portions of all the puts I have listed above. Now is a great time to take profits off the table if you have them. Plus, if a surprise cut comes out of nowhere, I don't want to be left holding the bag.
Note: I realized more gains today than I did all last month.
The end result leaves me with a sense of accomplishment. I am still feeling like I am at the very top of my game, and the results have proven it. It feels good to know that on a big reversal day like today, I am having the best day I've had in a long time. My hope is that all of you are reading my ideas, understanding my strategies, and hopefully picking up a few good profits for yourselves along the way.
BTW- If you are interested in an article I wrote about the Head & Shoulders formation, click here to read it on Forbes.
Reader Comments (17)
Jeff,
Thanks for all your tips. I'm liking the price action of VIP and OMG, bouncing off support.
I actually had a very good day, too. I set the alert on AMZN and got in just prior to it falling almost $8. I got out at the low but realized that, GAH!!, that was a day trade. I called TOS, and they assured me that the FTC would not be breathing down my neck for one day trade. I also took GENZ off the table with an 85% return, probably too early, but at this point I am all about preserving capital.
I feel like I have learned more with having so little money to trade with. It has sharpened my skills and *forced* me to make good decisions and stick to my rules.
If I can just say one more thing...The money that I have made in the past two weeks has been on stocks that I previously traded and lost money on. I went back to all of them and went over them with a fine tooth comb. I feel a tremendous sense of personal satisfaction in having been able to do that. It is thanks to you Jeff, that I learned to do this.
I am learning to fish, even with a few piddly worms, and it feels great!
Sorry for the tome, gang.
Laney,
Per your reference to day trading, what is the penalty for doing this? And why is there a penalty?
You have to make 3 trades that are less than 3 days long in a week to be flagged as a day trader, don't you?
Jeff thanks to you I've had the best 2 days trading I've experienced yet!!! I took your reco, evaluated opportunites and took a short ride on DRYS, USG, MO & LLY.
Great article in Forbes.
Thanks for all the teachings.
Jeff you are awesome!!
I have recovered my account back to where I can show my wife. Its amazing. 8 months of losses last year were recovered within the last week. I am still upset about LFC. Why would adding more shares to trade take the stock higher?
Please elaborate!
I am not set up to day trade and I don't have enough money to day trade. I am copyin and pasting from TOS
"Effective September 28th, 2001 the NYSE and FINRA imposed a $25,000 minimum equity requirement for "pattern day traders." Consistent with the new margin rules, if a thinkorswim customer's margin account falls under $25,000 and the customer has opened and closed positions on the same day four times within five days, the customer will not be allowed to open new positions until the $25,000 requirement is restored or the five days have elapsed.
Additionally, for a designated a "pattern day trader" account, the customer is allowed on any day to open new positions up to a total of the account's Day Trading Buying Power (defined as four times the difference of your account equity less maintenance margin requirements). The rule requires orders exceeding Day Trading Buying Power to be rejected."
That sounds very unpleasant, which is why I called TOS. Because I am not a habitual day trader, they told me not to worry about it.
You are the best around Jeff!
And congrats on the blog award!
http://www.bloggerschoiceawards.com/main/winners?page=2
Anon
Mike in Salt Lick,
China exploded today. This wasn't specific to LFC, it followed suit with all China stocks.
I liked your article on Forbes, Could'nt help but notice the first comment suggested that your analysis was flawed. In terms of volume and how it relates to the pattern as it plays out,
The poster stated...
""One big problem with your analysis. Volume does not confirm the head and shoulders""
...""As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation." "The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder""
""Volume has actually decreased from the Head through the right shoulder...it really should be increasing to confirm the pattern""
I think he is dead wrong. Volume is normally the heaviest during the formation of the left shoulder. It also tends to be quite heavy when a price is approaching the peak. The real confirmation comes with the formation of the right shoulder, which is invariably accompanied by a distinctly lower volume which is EXACTLY what I see when I use prophet C to do my volume analysis.
Can someone please correct me if I'm wrong, or explain it a little further for me?
Argh, So, it seems I picked the wrong stocks/entry points today. It was a rough day for me. Now I need to learn from it!
When people draw their support lines, what time frame do you use? I am going over a couple of my picks and the 1 year chart pattern support looks to have been broken, but if I use a 6 month chart, it closed right at support. What have people found to work the best, or what do you use? Which line is the best to trust?
Sorry, if its a confusing question. After a day where many people won, I am left with more questions!
Thanks,
PeterC
Peter C
I'm with you on that question, I've been using 5 year charts to plot trend lines and 1 year, maybe 6 month charts for Fib S/R. I wing it and go with what looks correct trying multiple combinations until it looks right and hope I'm on the money. Someone PLEASE help us with this one. :)
Jeff,
thank you for all the work you do. I have picked a few of your plays but just too many to pick. right now i have 16 holdings, 8 calls 8 puts. on a 40k account.
Just curious, how many trades you currently in right now.
Just too many very good plays for me to take, so i am not able to pick up more of your wonderful plays.
Keep up the great work...
IKNOWNOTHING
Hi Jeff
I am curious as to on what basis did you take the trade on ATW? Do you see anything that I cant see.? Isn't it much above the support line (or the trandline)? What is your logic for taking this trade?
And About the trade on Illumina .......Aren't we supposed to take the trade when it breaks either the upper or the lower line .
Pls explain so that I can understand the reasoning behind these trades .
Thanks
Dian
Clean cups.
Jeff,
Speaking of victory, what percentages did hit in your accounts for 2007?
ILMN just exploded this morning. Hope you all were in it.