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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market.

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« Prose Before Lows | Main | The Man Who Sold the World »

Way Too Vicious

History is being written, folks. These are exciting yet difficult times to trade in. At least one day you can look back on this period in the markets smiling- or scoffing and cursing if that's how you roll.

It is becoming increasingly risky to short at these lows. There have been few rips to sell, and if you don't catch them quickly, they are gone. My best advice to you is to check the chart toppers each day and go over the dollar gainers on the NYSE and NASDAQ (I never trade stock on the AMEX; don't ask). Use these as search parameters to sell anything positive in this market for short term swings.

I would take note in the VIX divergence that occured today. While the averages hit new lows, the VIX printed a lower high.

Speaking of VIX, the options market will hopefully return back to its normal, over-priced self tomorrow as the restrictions on the short selling of financial stocks will be lifted. This won't drive liquidity into the market, but the spreads should narrow to a degree. I am finiding that a good option to trade now days is a matter of randomness. Super liquid stocks could have ridiculously weak options, while not so liquid stocks on occasion have decent options available. This has limited my ability to take down less than a third of the good looking set-ups I have been finding. In fact, I have traded just as much stock in the last couple weeks as I have options. Weak!

Continue to diversify your plays, and keep a small position size. I am trying to price in the "bearded-halt" which could come at any sign of capitulation, and have priced in the rate cut, which is increasingly insulting as the days go by.

Going forward I'd use a rally in crude to buy an airline stock, short anything global growth related, and kick off tomorrow's trading session by shorting a bank- because I can.

In the mean time, keep it real- except for those of you who can't.

OA

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