Jeff,

Wish you a Happy Valentine's Day! I'm sorry all that weather storm you had but, i'm glad you and your family are settled and safe!

Thanks, Meena

Just to throw a fundamental spin on UNG, if coal prices / stocks continue going up, it will help make gas cost effective for electric generation...I work for an electric and gas utility, we keep gas units off ( except during high demand peaks ) due to coal being much cheaper than natural gas...if this coal story keeps playing out, it will level the field and continue causing gas draws to be high….many gas turbines out there that were built in late 1990’s and don’t run to 100% capacity due to the increase in price of gas vs. coal

Westy,

Not only the index ETFs but the $VIX is forming a triangle too as well as all the Short index ETFs. It is going to pop one way or the other soon.

Beautiful - thanks for the developing setups!

Does anyone know when DRYS earnings will be out? It says 4pm ET, but I dont see any news yet...

What?? No professing your love to Amber? No Amber professing her love to you? Last night must have been hard on you --- or is the blog broke?

Jeff,

The Rocket used to be 6'4", according to the mug shot he's now just barely 6' even! Is that what you meant by "short in size"?

Good call on CMG Jeff ... Looks like you win that one! Down 11 after hours ...

Seriously, Jeff, thanks for the second watchlist of the week!

Jeff, Any thoughts on ABX? Looks like it's at horizontal support.Good entry point?

DRYS earnings are in - up 8 bucks!!

CMG - I had puts on that when it broke down last week. The big run up yesterday kicked me out at a loss. pffft.

My timing sucks.

Go DRYS! So, the question is... Do you sell at open expecting a drop after the gap up?

Will allow for bigger moves in DBA....

The Kansas City Board of Trade and Minneapolis Grain Exchange on Wednesday will raise daily trading limits for wheat futures to 90 cents from 60 cents, exchange officials said Tuesday.

The daily trading limit at the Chicago Board of Trade will remain 60 cents, said a spokeswoman for the CME Group Inc. (CME).

The three exchanges late Friday increased their daily limits to 60 cents from 30 cents and said they would increase limits by another 50% if at least two contract months within a crop year closed at limit bid or offer. That was the case at the KCBT and MGE, exchange officials said.

Doji-

I feel your pain. Getting stopped out one day only to watch the position rally the next is rather frustrating. Just sort of running in place right now. Hang in there. It's good to know I'm not the only one feeling this way. Do I start day trading, or take an opposite approach a go more long term with my bearish stance?

Thanks to Jeff for creating this place.

M Bluejays,
This could in effect also push DBA down. As the market makers unlock the locked Wheat Market, some may see this as a unnecessary reason to take profits on Wheat and Wheat based instruments.

That is why the markets are not effecient........

AYE MATEY that is a black swan if ever sar one!

Cheers,
Arty

necessary

Oh and Besides that I talked to Utley today so I inherently become a macro-economist. God I admire him!

Boots

Arty---

"AYE MATEY that is a black swan if ever sar one!"

In order to talk like a pirate, you really should be wearing the thong... er... eye patch

Curious what type of bullish pattern you're seeing in AEM?

For what it's worth, what stands out is an ascending wedge signaling the potential termination of the current intermediate uptrend. Coincides with a triple negative MACD divergence and declining volume (and volume indicators - OBV, A/D) on advances. Each of the past three successive rallies have barely managed to move above the previous high indicating possible exhaustion in demand.

No intention to dismiss your analysis, just curious what you're seeing. Just goes to show TA is an art and not a science.

Thanks

Jeff,

If you held onto your DRYS calls you will be 1-2 on earnings play. I did :) sorry I skipped BIDU.

Arty,

You're scaring me with your wheat talk. All I know is since Jeff put this trade on the blog I'm up 85%. I've been in this trade for 3 weeks and added yesterday. that seems like an eternity in this market and my best trade for 2008. thank you Jeff. Go agriculture!

I'm holding onto my DRYS for the longer haul...its at 4 times 2009 earnings! But thats not pertinent to the trade though...

Technically too, there is a lot of upside on this, IMHO...

Jeff - what do you think?

Wheat is only a 1/4 of DBA, but it has been lifting the other grains higher, and now when they finally buy enough wheat acres, the wheat price will come down hard.

Jeff,
What do you think of DXD? Bounce off trend line. But it made a lower swing high, which I recall you said you won't take such trades. Correct me if I'm wrong please.

Is it just me or does FPL look like an almost perfect symmetrical triangle?

John H.

The rocket looks a little taller on the left side. Must be log scale.

Shorting Idea.

CMI - resistance at 52,50

OptionSniper, yes it does look perfect. There are so many perfect looking triangles out there, including all the indices. Spooky. Like a ginormous powder keg getting ready to explode.

ok....still have a chance of "getting some"...if my wife wakes up from putting the kids to bed. Not holding my breath...so I gave her "coupons" for free foot rub, any household chore, night on town..etc, PLUS gave her a 5k check (from our joint acct....so no big deal) in anticipation of my DRYS upside tomorrow. Told her to cash it in early...in case I start losin here (aint happening)

For tmorrow, thinking CMG puts...any better put ideas?

CMI was a bull pick very recently, by de boss....but, I see what you mean...watchin it

right....of course, everybody is getting some right about now, eh?

Good fantasy...I'm the only sorry no-life ass trying to scalp a few bucks on Valentines Day, i suppose..

mram...you are not completely alone...

thanks Zbob, lets make some maney, man!!!

lets catch the sleeping fuckers with their pants down, eh?

PCLN up 9% in pre-market.

My Airplane is retarted.
Yesterday I had to sit in the back of the airplane (with all the... you know... REAL people) so I watched a movie. When I selected the movie it asked me what language I wanted to watch it in. It's called The Gold Rush with Charlie Chaplin. It's a SILENT movie. So it brings up my language options.

English.

Nothing else. So I pick english. What else can I do? Then I get a little blurb on the movie and am told that this movie won the Academy Award for... get ready for it... SOUND.

SOUND!!! IT'S A SILENT FRICKIN' MOVIE!!!

My airplane is retarded. I'm the Captain, so I guess I must be too.

C2, you are so funny. glad you're back.

Has anyone else been noticing that POT has been doing it's thing quietly in the background the last little while? It's up 12% since I got in a month and a bit ago. I'd give you the exact date but I'm too retarded to know.

Thanks Jeff for DBA. I only have a couple of options right now (one call, one put) and yesterday I was up 25% on the money I have invested.

Wish I'd been around yesterday. CMG would have been a perfect entry early in the day. I probably would have stayed away from it with earnings, as I don't want to get caught with my pants down over earnings (Jodi... I wear my speedo under the pants to convince the Russian judge I'm doing it on purpose... Straight 10's usually.)

GS does a hatchet job on CNX?..huh? down grade, how rude.

Incidentally, if I wear a speedo it's not a Naked put anymore.

More like a Ball Put Spread.

Dr Dirt,
Considering the mess GS got us into over mortgages I have no time for their rating system at all. Unfortunately people still seem to listen. Time to get out, if you're in.

Chris Catherine, I'm thinking about buying more.
But I;m a simple man, in my bean bag chair,cheetos and spddeo, a must.

Jeff, You mentioned that you take losses at the end of the day if a stock hits your exit price(on a loss).I would like to ask why you wait to the end of the day and is this a hard and fast rule for you? Thanks.

Jim,
You could search for Jeff's exit strategies... but the Reader's Digest Condensed Version is that he exits at the end of the day ALMOST all the time as quite often a stock will rebound during the day. I personally have seen this happend many a time... usually after I have sold it in a panic at the opening bell. There WILL be times that things just get worse as the day goes on and these are the times you've got to decide to stick with the rule or break the rule. If you stick with the rule you will come out ahead more often than you will lose.

For what it's worth... that's what I do too.

Now.

Sarah,
Nice to be back. My employer seems to find it necessary to make me show up at work from time to time and I find it most inconsiderate. I keep hoping ARTY will hire me as a full time trainer but the lineup seems to be awfully long for a Beer And Wings Trainer.

For those liking the results of DBA, you may want to watch charts for pullbacks to support on it's cousin DBC...based on futures also, it covers a variety of commodities and has been moving up strongly too over past few months....

Crude Oil (Fut) 36.65%
Heating Oil (Fut) 21.12%
Wheat (Fut) 13%
Corn (Fut) 12.43%
Lme Alum (Fut) 12.11%
Gold 100 (Fut) 10.07%

DrDirt.
So you're one of those "Glass is half Full" guys, huh? Good on you. Personally I hate bottom fishing because it's ripped my speedo off too often. And the Russian judges really, REALLY frown on that.

Thanks for the response C&C I did try to find it but apparently didn't have the key words.Does make sense.Thanks again.

HANS- This looks like a breakout to me. What do you guys think? I was hopeing for a breakdown but this might work.

USG - Raimo whats your exit on this one?

GMCR "near" a good E/E. low risk (manageable).

C2, yeah....half full.....thats why I'm all red today, and those Russian Judges are in a Mafia, be careful.
How can cnx, with global short of coal be bottom fishing? My speedos in a wad.