Oil breakout? Triple top?

POT/MOS - Jeff, I noticed these 2 breakouts didn't have any significant volume today.

You have taught us in the past, volume is the key to a breakout. Or does volume really matter when it is just breaking a recent high (MOS)? Could you clarify? Thanks again for the wealth of information.

Jeff,

I am a little late to thank you for today's efforts. I did get into CALM today and closed with a nice virtual profit so far. Thank Amber for her guest appearance on the late night Kohler show. I am sure her reward is flowers, a back rub, dishes, a few diaper changes, some housework and being left alone to sleep for 24 hours!! What can I say....I am well trained!

Thanks for all your efforts!

CALM

http://seekingalpha.com/article/64860-cal-maine-foods-omlette-or-bad-egg

I know I'm late on the trigger, but great watchlist vid.

I especially enjoyed the obviously false bravado of "Now go make me some dinner!" only after admitting "I had a dinner date this evening that I am just now returning from."

Good Stuff! Thanks for all you do!

I just read there was pretty heavy trading on March options on MRVL today on no news. For you gamblers out there.

I missed CALM but...did get into COIN.

After reviewing a lot of charts tonight, I am convinced there is a good potential for 5-8% upside on the major indicies within the next 2 weeks.

A close under 616 on the OEX would cause me to get more bearish in the short term.

Everything still looks like we're in a long-term bear market, but I think we're setting up for a nice little rally over the next couple weeks.

I know you have heard this before... But where the Heck is Eric

Hey Jeff or any other OA's

What About goold old VIP... Does it look like a break out of above $38.00 resistance with a target in the range of $46.00?????

Thanks,

Tony

Tony,

I am thinking VIP could be a bearish rising wedge.

Heavy vol on the sell off in Jan, contracting volume during the rally/consolidation = classic bearish formation. Overhead resistance at $40.

Either way, it could be a wait & see IMHO.

Jeff,

From your watchlist: CREE is approaching pretty strong resistance at $35, so is it a good entry point if it can break through and close above it?

Another thing I noticed, if I switch to a 5 year chart, is that an inverse head & shoulders pattern with a price target of about $54?

Thanks again for the great watchlist. I appreciate your dedication to educate all of us and spread the wealth :) [Once I catch on that is]

Jeff

Don't you think POT and MOS are too far out to enter now...or is that something you are leaving up to us, based on the rules we are supposed to have?

Or is your point merely that these are still in early breakout stages and should provide good trend trades from here on?

As per rules though, we "should" wait for a good REE point...but man its really hard to resist when YOU headline them like this...

So, pls clarify your position - would you jump into these if you werent in already, or wait for the right entry points?

mram,

Why wouldn't you trade them?

Breakout trades. especially these ones are easy to manage. Arent they?

Jeff - the problem is that my exit points would be several bucks below market, so if they turn down, I have to deal with the emotion of justifying my position vs exiting for a hefty loss (hefty in my opinion is more than $500..)....unless I set a very tight stop, which may end up being a suicide trade...

Appreciate your insight..

Sorry Jeff, would like to reword my previous post...

When you say 'easy to manage', I'm assuming knowing your exit...but for MOS and POT specifically, the logical exit would be several percent below current mkt price, right?

Or is it acceptable to set an arbitrary tight stop below entry if you see a major breakout you want to get on board?

Looking at HOLX it seems to drop below $61 quite often - a safer point of entry might be if it breaks below its 200DMA at around $59.98

Mram,

Sounds to me like you have not established trading rules for yourself. The LAST thing you want to do is rely on ANYONE to tell you when to get in and out of trades. Jeff offers a premium service to his Option Addict members (its called AA ...Addict Alert)that allows you to mirror trade with him...but it's big bucks.

Jordan,

I've been smokin POT, here is why it is going to at least $165....it does have a pattern..its been loyal to its trend...

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1896/pot9mo022108yj8.gif

POT and MOS are sweet set ups breakouts with easy to manage exits.

mram, Knowing your entry, exit and target price out of the gate makes this so much easier.

Bull flags on WHR and SFG

SPEEDO ALERT
Squak Box guys dressed in Speedos and Michel Phelps, damn its gonna be a good day.

RIMM CEO said RIMM did not experience holiday slow down. Anyone playing to the downside might want to check out the bid/ask this morning. $106 right now.

RIMM also said they'd be adding 20% more subscribers than forecast. Fuel to the fire.

Raimo,
I have not heard of that? When did the AA happen?

AA great concept, I'd be interested.

Laney, your'e not a subscriber??

No, I really have no idea what it is. How could I have missed this?

I think Raimo is pulling our chain.

Raimo, you are MEEEN.

Oh, OK. Jokes on me I guess.

Meeen...I don't think so...

I was just messin around....truth be told..we are all getting AA weekly here.....

You need to have a sponsor to get into AA.

mram - this is from Investors Business Daily.
Cut every loss when it’s 8% below your cost. Make no exceptions so you can always avoid huge, damaging losses. First – NEVER average down in price, NEVER! Second, always cut your losers based on your position sizing calculation which should have a direct relationship to your risk-to-reward setup. Don’t allow losses to grow larger than 8-10%.

-Follow selling rules on when to sell and take profit on the way up. Always sell when a rule is violated. Examples could be a price falling back below a specific moving average, a specific retracement from new highs or a trailing stop.

Berkshire:

I apologize for the delay in responding to the FLR daytrade question Tuesday, I have been in "medical time out" for a full day. Let me preface my question by stating THANKS again for such a detailed response. After retracing the technicales analysis you offered, they all tied nicely to you 850% ROI conclusion. However, I noticed (5da,5min chart enlarged) the ATR peaked at 9:50-10:00 but the price held until 10:55 (window of opportunity) then dropped on flat volume to hit your 120 target.
Absolutly beutiful!

Now for the question: was the catalyst news or event driven? FLR was upgraded by UBS, Barron's lowered their target by $12, FWLT and JEC both followed with similar patterns. I could find nothing specific to support the abrupt downward move. When PCU bounced along with RIO they were carried by the pre earning report pop of RTI at Friday's close. Was your original stradegy strictly a technical one or supported by yet another catalyst?

Berkshire and other OA's, I apologize for this lengthly post but this input is more like a "single malt scotch" than just simply a drink of water.

Thanks once again, Jim

COV looks like it is breaking out to the upside

Right from Jeffs list, is PRXL going to go BOOM with BNI? ....!!!!

CEOJWS (JIM),

There was no particular catalyst except witching day. I track a couple of stocks and issue out day trade alerts on expiry. FLR, being the largest (in $) of the infrastructures seemed good. FLR is not highest beta, but is about 2x the others in price. I was looking for a single day $ move. Other things like CF move HUGE on expiry.

Essentially, when I open above my entry price and I saw really cheap ATM options, I could not resist.

As far as news goes, I usually don't bother. I think the information is out there if you know where to look, and I certainly don't want CNBC (GE's) opinion of how I'm supposed to think.

If I had known it had been upgraded, that would only have been another reason for ME to short it.

In conclusion, It was purely a technical play, perhaps with a splash of expiry.

Hope that helped.

Berkshire

Jeff..

Thanks man, the watch list should be re-named the hit list buddy...

of today getting to play the market
CMI
lot of buying
betred

that should be off today
maybe I am off today
betred

BIDU opened pretty close to where I have a reistance trendline drawn. I can't play it though, have to shuffle some money around first.

CNQ was a Jeff play right? Anyway I am showing it settling nicely right back at support line or REE.

mram,

The idea is to use the entry/exit concept that is talked about here everyday. Once a stock breaks resistance, use that as new support. If that level is voilated, use it as a stop. The trade is easy to manage because the current price is not too far away from getting stopped out.

Look up the post I did for the group about the last GLD trade. I think it was titled GLD; In My Opinion...or any post about breakouts for that matter.

CNQ..

And I have it at resistance.....

CNQ - didn't it just form a double bottom?

Sorry geckoJB - didn't see your post......

This morning I went on a buying spree. I added calls on CMED, CSIQ, MA, MCD, NFLX, NOK, and WFR.

I am leaning bullish for the next 1-2 week timeframe unless we get a serious breakdown soon.

raimo, here's what I am seeing. opionions appreciated.

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2120/cnqlp2.jpg

CNQ.....

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/292/cnq1yr022108fl1.gif

Thoughts?? Lets debate this, always good to see how different eyes see different things...

After all, beauty is in the beholder.....

Trader J,

your a maniac! ( I like it)