I have been watching these as well. I was in MRO today, the break a couple days ago held yesterday. I was in today before the breakdown. I am now out and waiting for a refiner reentry. I like TSO above $41ish and VLO above $62 is nice. Thanks for the WNR and HOC ideas, they seem better for today.

John

What's up with AEM.. I heard on the cast that it was down graded, it seemed that it moved up pretty good after the conference then pulled back. SHould we be out of this trade ASAP????

Tony S,

Downgrades aren't fatal all the time. I have been in plenty of downgraded positions only to have them rebound the very next day. If it isn’t technically broken, I wouldn’t throw it to the wind yet. I kept a small position over earnings and am still in it. My out right now is a break of the trend on a 60 day chart or a break below the $64 breakout.

I hope this helps.

John

AEM, ascending triangle with break out confirmed. It is completely normal for this pattern to retest its breakout support, as Jeff has said in the past "THIS IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN!" The trick now is to find the perfect E/E point for minimum loss on a bounce re-entry ... do we wait for it to try and test 64 and risk the big move up? Currently only 1 point into a possible 10 point move. Reward/ Risk should be somewhere above 3, and current entry now shows about 10/2 or about 5 to 1 !!!!

guys this guys is very helpfull. i went long on SPY and POT and CALM today just traded 1 contract. Also got 1 put for HOLX.

My question to u guys is do you guys put stoploss on your options contract is that required. let me know how you guys deal with it.

I am also looking to see if i can find an entry in WFR and other refineries

hi JEFF im new here , glad to join ur cool community, simple and stupid question , these 3 stocks u mention are they going down or up ? sorry again for asking my english is very2 poor

Bill,

I'm no expert, but this is what I've been doing lately (learning lately) and it has really helped my trading a ton - like night and day.

I don't use stop losses any more after being stopped out prematurely too many times. Instead, I make a line in the sand on the underlying (NOT the option price) and make myself exit the trade if it is going to close on or beyond. I leave a little fudge room in there too, since S/R lines aren't necessarily black and white - but tend to lean towards taking slightly smaller losses than waiting for another losing day to confirm what you probably already know. I'm finding I like this method because it's an easy rule to make and stick to than others I've tried in the past.

There's a term a lot of people have picked up around here called REE, or EE, which refers to entry/exit - get in as close to your entry/exit point as possible, e.g., support/resistance or trend lines. it helps you find out real quick and relatively painlessly if you were right or wrong. The link: http://www.optionaddict.net/discussion-board/post/317085

RYAN BAIRD,

(from previous thread).

You would go long the IEF, because there are no options on TLH, and the TLT options are not as liquid as the IEF. Either way, you're getting a decent entry into the long end of the curve, with a 50-basis point cut coming. Sell an 88 put against the 89 call, and you have yourself a synthetic long position. (not that I'm recommending this. Do your own research). Good luck!

Jeff when u said HES is a close second di u mean HOC which is the chart below it? HES is also a refiner with a nice chart.

Thank you for the fed back in reference to AEM. From the Techs it still looks good, I was just concerned about a down grade.

MOS- looks like it may have a good entry point today, with yesterdays pullback to old resistance and new support...

Tony

Today might be the big breakout on the SPY and SPX. If not I expect about a 1.5 point move up on the SPY. We are at the bottom trend line right now.

Bulls I am in: CALM, SPY

Bears I am in: HOLX(Confirmed for me below 60), ABT(Conformed for me below 55), ICE

Lets see what the day brings.

AEM

I'm no expert, but take a look at the MACD bearish divergence. Also, it looks like a rising wedge should be bearish.

Mram: Call INVESTools Tech @ 800-550-2835, sometimes hard to get through but very supportive.

Jim

Jeff,

ABT...I did NOT play this to the downside for these two reasons...

1)for the breakout to the downside, the volume was not a big deal, just slightly more than it's 30 day average.
2)since the market has been wacked, i have also been paying attention to some MA,s, and ABT has bounced off the 200ma 4 times since Nov, not including where it is now.....a 5th time. I am waiting for it to break that as more confirmation, or, I'll play this to the upside on the bounce if it does so today.

I myself don't normally pay attention to MA's, but in this climate, I have been.....

Thoughts??

Old Lefty,

A rising wedges are continuation patterns, not topping patterns.

The divergence is something to keep an eye on.

John

pervious post... continuation patterns in a downtrend...

Raimo,

On ABT I see what you are talking about with the bounces off of the 200MA. I will be playing this one with a tight stop for sure. And may flip it if I see it turning

Thanks for the input as always.

AMG is leaving the station.

Hope y'all hopped on.

Berkshire

I was more excited this morning when I though Jeff
was calling a bottom on the US dollar. I think it would have been a better conversation piece.

Berkshire

Jeff,
Thanks. Something to look at definitely. What is the economic reason you think the refiners will turn up? I see the technical analysis. Anything going on in the global economy that we should be aware of?

Michelle,

Turns went into Iraq this morning that could cause oil prices to increase. Most refinerys actually make less money at higher crude prices then when they are around $65 to $70.

I expect to see a drop in Crude soon back down to $80 so that would be good for refiners.

I took the bait on MOS yesterday. Anyone else taking this entry?

Raimo, I agree, ABT lack of selling volume. It is tempting but we need some confirmation on this one (my opinion).
We just turned negative SPY puts anyone ?

I am back been out of circulation for a while - but yes I BOT the AMG 95 Put on 2/20 - and it has left the station. Down to 75-80

Got stoped out on CALM and SPY, I am fully bearish right now. Any good bull calls sitting out there?

FRE has left the station also.

Berkshire

AEM doesn't look strong enough to break out at higher level. Looking bearsih for short term..

down 2.25 as im writing this..

Mosan

Glad to see your aboard David.

See ya at $75.

Berkshire

Anyone here in EWM still? Looks like it's at make it or break it support.

Walking into the lower Trendline right now on SPX 6 month chart right now. Might see a bounce off these lows.

Need some Bulls here. AKS and VIP?

i am sure this has already been mentioned numerous times...but how about descending triangle on AAPL if it can break and hold 120...getting closer

Westy,

What are you seeing in VIP that makes you want to be a bull?

Berkshire

Hey Cameron,

I am looking at MOS as well, I did not get in yet, I am waitng to watch how much it pulls back. I'm from San Diego as well..

Take care

Tony

Decided to bail on all the calls I was buying yesterday. Added CNX puts and DRYS calls this morning.

Market isn't acting like I expected so that means it's time for me to get back into mostly cash until things become more clear.

Sold half of CSIQ will sell the rest if it breaks 19.15.

Hi Tony!

Right about now I'm wishing I'd waited.:)

Do you go to the IT user group meetings over at Kaiser?

EWH - Descending Triangle Breakdown?

Berkshire,

VIP is trading in an upword pattern ever since January lows. Right now might not be a good entry point, but I expect it to match its highs from end of last year.

AKS looks nice right here as a bull play.

I worry if we break through the trend line we could be headed back to January lows.

I need to see some support here or I am not getting into any bulls.

I love the smell of slaughtered bulls in the morning.

Make me want a Bison Burger...

Berkshire

Westy,

My thoughts on VIP (note I am very bearish on telecoms) is that it is at the 38% retrace of the last move down. Also, a channel/trendline off the top 2 peaks hit the high of this advance. I could also argue that it is a sloppy h/s top forming. Either way those are my thoughts. Don't let me scare you off.

Curious as to what you saw. (Glad you entry was not right here too.)

Berkshire

Berkshire, FRE and FNM were down graded today :)

Thanks Grace.

I missed that, though I am not a news follower.

That's not too surprising, is it?

Berkshire

Any idea why IBKR tanked today?

BOT the Spy Strangle the other day and just sold off the broken "Call" leg. The Spy Put is working fine.

ABT

I am short.

Bullish, EQIX if it holds by days end...

Sam,

#1 Market is down, no?
#2 Double Top?
#3 if not double top then lower high right.
#4 Big divergance on 4 out of 4 oscillators.

IMO

Berkshire

Raimo,

At least you aren't buying the highs.

Berkshire

AMG and HOLX - Will you be taking your profits today? Since profits must be taken faster in this environment, will you take them today? I am not even at the halfway mark to my target price, which is where I would ordinarily take at least half of my profits. But I'm sitting on 70% profits on both trades. My rules say to wait, but I don't want to lose any profits here. Ugh...

CCJ - Was this a put play, Raimo?

Sledge,

I understand the need to be taking profits quicker now.

The question is which way do you think the larger trend is. Since the trend is our friend (I think it is down), I would be more likely to let them run.

Since AMG just broke a triangle (like potentially the markets just did) I am goin to wait until at least half of the $20 point (min) move that I am expecting is in.

Also, No real support for HOLX under where it is at.

Since the markets are just resuming their downtrends, I would be willing to hold for another couple of days.

IMO

Berkshire

Sledge,

My target is $75 on AMG. Right now I am up +70% or so. I am supposed to be up roughly 700% at target. I am thinking this could be suicide, no?

Berkshire