If the Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) breaks out to the upside that would very likely have a negative effect on the US indices. There has been a strong negative divergence between the two.

Good work Jeff, nice slightly mysterious sounding opening. I liked how having fewer patterns to get through allowed you to spend more time talking about entries and stops.

I was actually coming here to post that DE was showing a triangle just like the indicies.

ALY--is that a bull flag with a target slightly under 15? I'm looking for conformation that I'm starting to get this technical stuff.

Jeff, thanks for the list. Worth staying up for!

Am I correct in understanding that you believe if we break up out the Triangle (SPX) that's the end of the bear market or are you calling it an intermediate uptrend in a longer term bear market?

Jeff, thanks for posting the watchlist this late. I sure hope you are correct about the possible turn in the markets.

Nate, the bull flag price pattern is a trend continuation pattern and only appears in an uptrend. ALY looks to have bottomed out at $10, and if anything, I see a possible inverted head & shoulder in the making.

Jeff,
Another great list. If we breakout (close above 1370) on the S&P what is your time horizon on your prediction of 1500? I won't hold your feet to the fire on this but just to see if you are looking like I am at May '08 which is a 90 day horizon. We have been trading sideways/down for just as long. That is all, I hope I have made some contribution on this. And if I am wrong in my time estimation oh well I am always learning each day. This makes me a better trader for the long haul.
Out,
REBIGDOG aka Steve

Jeff, Again the Sunday watchlist is a hit !!!
Gotta thank you, aside from the absolutely insane ideas for the week, it the best opportunity to watch, listen and learn from you. No asskissing here, just graitude from a newer addict.

I

Jeff,

At the end you say to get short the financials. Agreed, but do you see the S&P going to 1500 and the financials, being the biggest part of the S&P, not being a part of that move? In other words, can the S&P move independently of the financials when they're the biggest component?

Thanks for the great list Jeff! I have lines on all and I'm ready for the morning.

Jeff,

I am all about the OAA mirror program. $995 introductory subscription is squat FFS. Even Arty is in.

Good Morning optimism...

I think it is amazing that the markets fell almost 20% - 30% (depending on Index) in a matter of monthes, and have rallied 10% from the bottom. 1 higher high and 1 higher low and now we are all bullish.

On that note, I will throw something I use out there that will probably get some more funny looks or hang-over references.

Look at the market (any) from late November 07 to late December 07. Now look at the most recent rally to now (1/22 to 2/22). First note at the time length (1 month each). Do the forms of either of these 2 period look anything similar?

I think with some open eyes, you would be amazed at what you could see.

Think Mandelbrot...

Just a Monday Morning thought.

Happy trading.

Berkshire

thanks for the list Jeff's. ready for a profitable week.

Berk,
I get what you're saying about Mandlebrot (fractals...how cool). I too am having a hard time believing in bullishness (other than very short term spurts) with all the bearish news surfacing on a daily basis.

Thanks Doji,

Don't know if you saw this...

I think what you are referring to is the bollinger bands (exponential).
I use 2.0, 1.5, and 1.0 breakouts in conjunction with oscillator divergances. I also turned the opacity of the upper and lower line to 0 to make things easier on my eyes. (Harder on Raimo stomach, but he can take it right?)

Don't get me wrong, I still respect the bullish case. IMO the Major trend is closer to down than up. And I feel I have sufficient evidence to back my case.

Berkshire

Great job Jeff! You just earned a new reader. It was a very well put together watchlist. The superman snip was a very nice touch too. I would edit the initial intro down a couple secs. 26 secs seemed a bit too long.

I found your blog off of ThinkorSwim's new portal mytrade.com . Its pretty pimp, I would recommend anyone who enjoys trading blogs to check it out.

Thanks again Jeff for your great work and taking the time to share it with us! Mad props!

Thanks Jeff for putting out the list Sunday night.

Even if we break up/down of triangle on SPX, won't all the economic data this week possibly negate the move?

Thanks again,
Sue G

Great job Jeff! You just earned a new reader. It was a very well put together watchlist. The souljaboy snip was a very nice touch too. I would edit the initial intro down a couple secs. 26 secs seemed a bit too long.

I found your blog off of ThinkorSwim's new portal mytrade.com . Its pretty pimp, I would recommend anyone who enjoys trading blogs to check it out.

Thanks again Jeff for your great work and taking the time to share it with us! Mad props!

berkshire:

The difference is the full effect of the of the credit crunch wasn't felt yet. Nor were the banks beaten down to the level they are now. Also since then, there has been 125 basis points cut. Granted these take 6 mos. + to make an effect.

Sue:

IME... When sentiment changes, it generally changes for everything. When seniment is good, both bad and good news is interpreted good. In the current case, "more rate cuts". When sentiment is bad, even good news can be taken as bad news. Many traders on these blogs didn't believe the ambac bailout was that significant, but look at the volume and rally friday.

Cyphress,

There certainly have been cuts, and how did the market react to all but the emergency ones?

It surely didn't like it. And cutting rates with a falling US $$ certainly seems to be increasing inflation right?

So, you are saying that we NOW have felt the FULL effect of the credit crunch, or do you think there is more pain left to go around.

From what I can tell, the banks haven't done anything with their debt, except play hot potato.

I think you will see something when we break our recent lows instead of "retest them.

Anyway Cypress, Glad to see your new, hope to hear more from you.

Berkshire

Just a though... Anyone notice the VIX so far.

Up 4% and market is down 4 points.

Might be telling us something.

Berkshire

Thanks Yvonne, I didn't know it was a continuation pattern. Also looks like it's a stretch for an inverse head and shoulders IMO.

Anyone else see AEM as a Bearish rising wedge? If so, that's about a 10point drop.

Poundcake,

Did you bail on RIMM on Friday, on now that Jeff is bullish on it?

Berkshire

CEOJWS,

Did you get the CNH puts @ 1.45 like me this morning? Or were you scared off too?

Berkshire

EDU looks like it is wanting to break down

AMG looks to be offering another ticket for a $10 slide.

For those who missed it.

Berkshire

RIMM at a nice EE area...(short side)

Sausalito Mike,

Look at a long term chart of the S&P, then look at a long term chart of XLF to answer that question.

Added calls in CF, CLF, RRC, SEED, and ZEUS. Dumped my AIG puts...

SEED is really getting ready to spike in my opinion.

Check out FAF right here.

p.s. good morning everybody.

BNI - Looks like it's near support to take the bull flag breakout early. Berk, thanks for helping me with this concept on Friday. Looks like a price target of $91.00.

YUM - I exited my puts. Anybody gonna go long for that sym tri move? I don't know if the pattern has failed. Hate to miss a $25 move.

I read an article in a farm newspaper today talking about how it was almost 34 years to the day ago that Wheat last topped out. It mentioned that was interesting because 34 is a fib number. I've never heard of fibs being used on the time axis before.

Jeff, thank you for AET on Friday. Took my profits end o' day for a nice quick gain. Thanks!

Bought JOE calls this morning.

Sledge,

I struggle to see I $25 move in YUM on a 1y1d anyway.

Perhaps you could shed some light?

Berkshire

Nate,

Great post. It is QUITE interesting that a fib # can be related to wheat's market.

I mean, the Fibonacci principle does guide living formations right?

Again, thanks.

Berkshire

Nate,

There is a fibonacci time series tool on prophet charts, right next to the lines and arcs.

Sledge,
YUM never broke on volume. Probably why it failed. In this market I would wait for volume, especially for an upside move.

Nate,

Check this out too.

From 1932 low to 1966 high 34 years.
From 1966 High to 2000 High 34 years.
From 1974 Low to 1987 High 13 years.
From 1987 High to 2000 High 13 years.

I can go on, or show you that the days, or even hours, can be even more interesting.

Since you mentioned it, I thought I would say what I thought.

Berkshire

bought some DE this am; lookin great so far.

Jeff,

If you could get them to change from a simple series projection (i.e 1,1,2,3,5,8,13, etc.) to an actual retracement/projection level (i.e from A to B is 10 days. Fib time retraces .618, .382, and projects, 123.6, 138.2, and 161.8)

Just like a price projection, except with time.

I have thought about talking to TOS about it, but you might have more sway.

Berkshire

Anybody like BCO chart today?

Berk,

I'm debating on bailing on RIMM. I'd like to wait until the end of the day but it's right at my mental stop and will probably break through.

Your thoughts?

SNA may make its move today...finally...

Sean, USG..

Is that a rocket in your pocket?

Jeff,

Thanks for having my back this morning. You know how much I like DEer hunting, so I killed this one at the open. Loaded up....took it down.

YUM looks like it is breaking it's triangle to the upside today. NUE looks like a good trade. If either of these is mentioned in the watchlist, don't stone me. I haven't had a chance to watch it yet.

Poundcake,

If it is at a stop level, put a line up, and check on it in about and hour or so.

If it have closed above it, you might want to stop out. However, if the markets turn down, I'm sure RIMM will fall with them.

Some big boys didn't want to play in this rally...GOOG, BIDU, MA, GS, etc.

I AM bearish, so I'm sure my bias comes out in what I say.

If it makes you feel any better, I am still short.

Berkshire

Did anyone add with me on TCK friday mornning? I am already up pretty big on this...Jeff, the list rocks! Did Amber get my check for the OAA service?

Cypress,

With FRE and FNM's recent downgrade, you really think that the FULL scale of this credit "bubble"
has ALREADY been played out.

Berkshire