Will the down move continue tomorrow?
Tom in SC

Yea Ha! Ride a bull or ride a bear! If this is a bear market - I could not be happier - google that! Short emotions, long happeniness and don't forget to vote today.

Jeff,
I love the trend... but there's zero open interest and zero trades and... well... zero anything on these options. It looks like a great trade and no one is interested. How do you trade this? I think DG needs to wave her magic wand over it.

By the way DG... PCU is the current love of my life. Meet me in FLL and I will pass on some of the magic. I sure wish I'd got into GS yesterday. I hope everyone who was fretting about it this morning held on until the close. Have we learned our lesson?

I chased DRYS all day and have not managed to get in. It's official... 70 is no longer the battle-hardened line in the sand that it once was and this ship is sinking. Why oh why did I not get in yesterday? I need Catherine to get her booty in gear and get onto this stuff so we can be making our fortune while I'm away. I think DRYS still is at a good entry... just not as good as yesterday. Now I have to wait until Thursday.

Crap. Ooops... I mean Poop.

Can anyone explain to me what is happening when a stock like TOL which I own calls on is down 2% at the close and 5 minutes after the close it is up 3% in after hours trading, ditto for RYL. This is on very low volume - just not understanding whats happening after the closing bell?

EWZ - nothing but cloths coming off this one! Imagine the beaches of Rio De Janeiro shorted! The perfect decending triangle - perky and colorful.

Ken,
Stuff happens after hours that defies comprehension. When it's only on volume of a few shares it means nothing (other than that the sky might be falling) because some unfilled orders might get filled when no-one is looking. The chances are that it will change dramatically as the night progresses.

F2T.. I love your thoughts on Rio... love the analogy even more. But this thing tends to make $5 moves and then schlep back up and today it made a 4.42 move down which means there's not much gas left in the tank.

IMHO.

PCU has a dividend scheduled for Friday. Is that a problem for the Puts we are holding? I typically wont hold options over a dividend.

Appreciate a little guidance here please.

Thanks in advance.

I have a trend channel I liked to share. Honeywell (HON). Yeah ok it's only 1 millionth as long as yours Jeff buts it's a channel none the less!

F2T,
I do not see a descending trianlge on EWZ. Even if I squint. I do see a nice rounded top, lower highs and lows however.

well, as of close today, i am officially changing strategies in my non-retirement account away from directional trading. my style of directional trading isn't working right now, perhaps because the markets really lack direction.

In my IRA, I've been trading with the ThinkorSwim "Options in your IRA" style, which is quasi-market-neutral and taking advantage of selling time and it's been working much better in this current environment.

A large part of the decision is the fact that the market-neutral approach is a bit longer term and takes less of my attention on a daily basis, which is needed for me.

I will hopefully return to some directional trading when conditions change. Jeff, hopefully you can help me identify when the time is right.

I'll still be around. Please don't disown me for moving away from directional trading temporarily.

X is forming a nice sym triangle. I'm going to need some of their product to build myself a snowplow to get out of the mess headed our way tomorrow. I'll be in Mexico. Catherine will be shoveling the driveway. Send sympathetic glances her way.

So Jeff... you're saying that shorting the $TNX is the only way to ride this one down? I'm curious because I want to find out if I can short stuff in my RRSP. Thanks.

DJ & C2,

Not suppose to go to the beach late afternoon unless, you are trying to catch the tail end of the day. For me, its been a great day!

C2, I was just looking at X and saw the same thing but I also have a one year diag. support line which comes in at around 92ish which may cut short the trade. I was also looking at AKS in the same family.

F2T, Not sure what you meant about late afternoon at the beach (that happens to be my favorite time there) but it was a good day for me as well, thanks to SDS, TWM and some BEN puts.

Doji Girl;

Sold Puts on EWZ the last hour yesterday. No exag., I saw the star and took the plunge. For me, there is so much going on right now. Still in goog (plus added more Feb $500 NPs). Got dumped out on FXI (calls) Gold turned to dog 'doo-doo". Glad I did not get into MSFT. WHR - sold for earning - should have! GS to $175? VPU - sucks air! CASH? I wanta ta buy something!

I know this is a blog supported by technical traders but this whole thing with the 'sky is falling' just isn't what I am experiencing. The motel is booking out almost every night, business at the restuarants are up, the RV Park is doing pretty good - considering the fowl weather (cold, wind and snow), the apartments are full (always someone with an excuse for not paying), ice cream, yogurt, margarita machines and juice bar equipment are selling in NoCal - so....

"Where's the beef (recession)?" I'm trading the trend and yet, I don't understand!

Oh! for those that read my comments on my VT employee (last month) - he's out!

My take, "who cares."

STOP!

MY COMMENT, "who cares" is a reference to the market -the stock market which is not listening to me right now. For "who cares" with reference to employees, "I do!" Employees are my biggest, best-est and most valuable asset." FYI, for anyone getting into business, "do not forget your employees are kings/queens - the money makers."

F2T,

As I recall, you had a good employee, but VT was demanding that he spend some time in their state. Is he out of VT and back at work? How did you work that little miracle?

I don't understand how calls or puts can cite volume 4 times open interest, e.i Feb 500 Goog.
Is that interday vs open volume?

options on the $TNX dont have liquidity.
anyone know of alternative instruments?

John H.

Long story (another chapter in my life) but ' (good) people screw up from time to time.' This person did screw up. In his case, whether our prayers, his strength or just luck - who knows? VT closed the case and he is a free person.

Quick story & lesson from Zig-Ziglar (if you do not know of him – Google), his take, "our real life title should be ‘crisis manager’ for we are either going into a crisis (death, divorce, tragedy, etc) or coming out of one – for those that can deal with it (you win), or be dealt it (drugs, spousal abuse, harm, etc) the final outcome is ones choice. Those that deal with it - win! Those that do not … (life’s tragedy’s). Make sense? In this case, WIN!

If rates are going to go that low again, and in fact make a new all time low, it could be a good time for commercial property again...

Acutally, XHB -- been CC'ng them over the last 2 months. 5K shares and up TOS $5650 - not a home run, just some gas in the tank!

Jeff,

Just got back from my sons baseball game, had a delmonico steak dinner with the family, then looked at my account.

Jeff....you are the man. I love you buddy..yeah..a littel merlot action here..but needless to say, I am indebted to the knowledge that you have so freely given here over the last year or so. Kohler Rocks.

Love you man..in a manly way!

OA's rock!

Dialog

If the democrats get into office, rescind the capital gains ‘low tax rate’ will we see a mass selloff of long term assets going into the election this year?

Jeff

Residential property,IMO, is still badly broken with high inventories, foreclosures etc. And there will not (or SHOULD NOT) be any more sub-prime buyers to push up the market from below.

So not sure about homebuilders cuz they are all residential pretty much (But you're Jeff and I'm not...)

How about some beaten down commercial REITs with high yields (and liquid optionable)?

Anyone know any good ones?

AVB

F2T,

The Democrats won't be able to change capital gains rates until they get in office in January.

The question is will they try to make it retroactive to the first of the year? While tax rate cuts have been made retroactive to an earlier date, tax increases are nearly impossible to make retroactive due to the complexity of collecting the taxes. Besides, if there are enough Republicans in the Senate, they may threaten a filibuster. In my opinion we should have an opportunity sometime in 2009 to sell longterm assets a few days or weeks before Congress takes up the issue.

Look @ Mar $100 puts - what's going on? Did Jeff unlease the bears? Or did someone sell a whole bunch of naked puts? Scramble - someone knows! Who will own 'board walk'?

JK

it has been weeks since i listened to the market cast, but i tuned in today and got lucky !!!

why is it always better when you are on????

Sorry, can't spell - watching FOX news - eating carrots, thinking about everything but (posting versus fishing).

For me, spit it out, look at AVB Mar $100 PUTs - fess up, somebody is playing this one. Come one, who is it? What do you know? Carl Icahn is it you?

I'd like to throw out a die, NYX, die. I bought a Feb 70 put a while ago and watched it get further and further from being in the money each day. Now in one day its taken back a week or more of gains.

Does it count as a bearish engulfing candle if the stock gaps down?

F2T,

Volume of an even thousand today with only 54 open before today. The price gapped up $2 and then rose another $1 during the day. That's over a $million play with earnings tomorrow. Is Martha trading again? Or Hillary?

Nate: I feel like catty Kathy tonight. Watching the election stuff, if you bought the FEB Puts - congrats. Now, to be a hero, look at the option Greeks (right now, they are like the SOB with the father that caught you in bed with his daughter).

FYI, everything is now going against you (fast). Eval your position - it's like a San Francisco earth quake, the ground is moving - how much longer do you want to hold this put. Plus, the girlfriends father is about to hit you – ouch!

John H -

this is Carl Icahn AVB is mine (find your own trash can) - back in 1985 when I took over TWA - I screwed the employees, then forced Texaco in BK 1987 went on to raid Anchor Holdings.

Hey, I'm a friend with the Clintons,know the Donald & really care about no one but my bank acct. - creep find your own trade!

Carl/F2T,

lol

Still multi-tasking with news, carrots, and fishing and forgot to change your author tag?

No, Free2Trade is very tuned in but - just trying to figure out...

will this Presidential Election be a beauty contest?

Folks, there are no free rides in this county we live in but I feel this elction is all about 'free rides'.

One opinion!

Jeff,

On the MarketCast was that WLT or WFT. or Both?

Chris,
Thanks for the advise on DRYS. Was home for lunch and wanted to see what direction it would take. Too late now but will keep an eye in the future.

F2T: "no free rides" in my county too. ;)

AXman721: I heard WFT, ACI, and ANR, but not WLT.

Thanx, John H

What do you guys think about the solars? Bear Flags are popping up all over my screen. But they went down hard today anyone still looking at these for new shorts.

F2T, the only thing in this market that I fear is Helicopter Ben.

Well, the other thing to fear is that Cramer finally came out and said NYX was a horrible stock, so it may very well bottom here.

Time for action: anyone watch 3:10 to Yuma? Costco has it out so (forget-this-stock-crap) : hit the play and good night!

Do stock traders (@nite) count sheep jumping over fences or bears and bulls (pooping on each other)?

F2T,

I used to have nightmares about bears. Now I just have nightmares about speedos stuffed with beanbags. My wife says I wake up screaming, but I black out pretty quickly, so I don't remember.

Sledge

Any opinions on DLB? Caught my attention as the only up stock on by bear list, up over 1.5% today!!...bearing in mind Jeff's call to look for reversals.

Actually - would love to get some thoughts on the chart pattern - looks like a sort of triple top, or is it a triple bottom but then followed by a "clumpish" island reversal...???

Just curious on this one...as I said, the fact it held it up today so well is intriguing.....

what is market cast? sounds like a good thing I need to tune into.

Jeff: I've never played the down market, and forget about selling premium. .. until I joined this Blog. Thank you Jeff and thanks also to everyone who so freely gave their time in responding to questions posed by this newbie. I found myself cheering the bears on all day long, something I've never done before...

I finally had one of my best days in months today and Tim it was because I did what you are doing. I was not comfortable with selling strategies so went through it all again and have Naked Calls and a few spreads and for some reason my emotions are level even in these high movement times.

Oh and on homebuilders - as Eric and Jeff stated last year some will go under, unfortunately. I have been in this industry for years and the smart ones are turning to apartments and commercial projects. Others that are stuck or management cannot move quickly are hiring restructuring professionals - do we all know what that means? Unfortuntately, some of these have been my best clients but getting paid is a daily worry so short them and make money on them in any case.

Sorry I have not posted in a couple of weeks but regrouping a bit here.

F2T

Thanks for the AVB idea - I am lookin into it ; if it holds 88-90, it might be a buy. It also has a 3.5% or so yield, but hey, if you're here, who cares about that, right?

Good luck!!