thanks jeff! i'm excited to watch these stocks break and join you (and other OA's) with some profits!

That's what I don't get about this market ... bad news just isn't what it used to be.

Is anyone else in the put play on ATI that Jeff proposed earlier in the week? This thing just doesn't want to go down! Any thoughts?

Looks like a H&S forming on PVH on the 60 day chart.

Cameron,

I was thining the same thing this morning.

I've opted to be patient with this one.

Cameron,

I like ATI puts here. I picked some up earlier today. However, I probably should have waited until the close. It is still in a downtrend, close to REE so I will know if I am wrong pretty quick and I think it will go back down and at least retest $65. IMO

Cameron, I'm in ATI. I sold CNX calls I was in this morning at close to the lows. I'm sure if I sell my ATI puts now it will plummet immediately. Maybe we could work something out!
(Thanks Berkshire, for the input.)

At least we are getting a little bump in coal stocks and gold (miners) today.

thanks Jeff...

Jeff, as a follow up to the trend line video and a stock you outlined here I have a question. The stock in question is STRA. Now when I switch to a line chart what I initially see is a support line that was broken and the new line moved out to create a new support line. The original support line would of touched 3 points (1/8, 1/22 & 1/30) then the stock broke through.

So the question is. If someone was playing STRA a few weeks back they most likely would of exited (i think). Secondly when is it ok to redraw the support line?

This would really help me in understanding when the price pattern is done.

Jeff-

CLF: So, you are looking for it to hit horiz. support? In other words, bearish in the very near term?

ATI is moving against me too.

Thanks,
Lara

Jeff -

I'm guessing you like bullish entry into WCC today?

Jeff love the posts! Any one short DRYS? or have any thoughts on it? Looks like its at resistance but i'm pretty new to this...

Jeff, what is your trigger for MON? A break below 100 or support at about 97? How important is volume on this move?

I posted a 'book' question yesterday but not sure it got through. When is the "Trading Options" by Jeff Kohler going to hit the bookstores. I read Murphy, very helpful, but more useful here in the archives etc.

Tom in SC

PCU- I have a put. When I draw my diagonal resistance line on a line chart it appears as if old resistance has become new support and it bounced off of it intraday today. It's had a little rally in the last hour which is playing on my fears.

Your thoughts? (Yes you!)

Oh yeah beautiful freakin charts on this post.
Let's not forget the sym. triangles on BTU and BAX as well.

Steve,

I can see your H/S top on PVH (though I typically look for more time for that pattern to form), however...It does happen to be at the 61.8% retrace from the 5/30 high of 62.23 to the 1/18 low of 31.82. A typical move here would be back down to 123.6 @ approx. 25ish.

The point is there is strong resistance where it is, head and shoulders or not.

Good Luck.

Berkshire

I am going for some puts in HANS. The coke guys will probably think the same - buy them at under $30 - if they want to.

Poundcake,

I got out of PCU this morning when it was on its way up. I have resistance at about 100.25 but in this market I was not willing to ride it back up to resistance.

By the way, I know your brother, coffecake.

Jeff,

How do you go about finding out what individual stocks are in a given ETF? I may have missed this in the last few days but I would really appreciate it if you could point me in the right direction.

Anu

Jeff,
You said you are waiting for the opportunity to short MON. What about POT whose chart is similar and same industry group?

Anu you can look at top ten holdings on yahoo finance or you can go directly to sight sponsor for full list. www.ishares.com or www.powershares.com for example. What ETF are you intrested in?

Question about ATI here (Note I am not trading this because of my time out). I have support around 75 and it is above it with a slight drop in volume. So, if it closes above that, I would not buy puts (per my rules). Where does everyone have their support drawn for ATI? What are your plans for the trade?

PeterC

Jeff, love these price patterns :-)

Also, I am looking at the 10/20 day charts of the major indexes and there is clearly a Head and shoulders formation across the board. Take SPX for example, if I look at 1340 as neck line, SPX has broken support, is retesting now, if the pattern confirms, SPX will go down to 1290, which incidentally, is the last support level prior to the surprised rate cut. However, if I use 1325 as neck line, we hit 1320 this morning and rebounced.

This posts an interesting question - do we go higher or lower from here? If support is at 1325 and we head higher, the market will show a higher high, higher low! We will be back to an uptrend. Is that possible fundamentally with all the housing crises? And why are the retail stores like WMT (Walmart) going up on bad earnings? They even claim that as fewer customers than expected cashed in gift cards -- and many who did used them for food instead of discretionary items like clothes.

What do you think? I think it goes lower from here.

geckoJB,

Thanks. I wasn't looking for a particular ETF yet but was trying to set up a system like Stan had mentioned earlier where you can identify the trend of the ETF and then look to see if there are any particular stocks in that ETF that would be a good candidate to trade. I will check out the sites you noted. Thanks again for your help.

Anu not sure if you are using charting/brokerage service but some of these allow you to quickly scan industry charts then drill down deeper in stocks that make up that sector.

Peter C.,
I have resistance/support line on ATI at 75.4. It is not, however, a very strong or established line.

Thanks. I have been watching a similar triangle pattern as the above in COIN. Anybody have any thoughts?

I think this small rally today will get crushed! I held onto my PCU puts since, well, I got in at 99

Hope I'm making the right choice by holding on!

Sean M. - I can introduce you to my sister Buntcake if you want.

Gecko,

Remember, when you switch to a line chart...it is only plotting closing prices. You are omitting some important opening prices when doing this.

So now everyone will ask, why switch? I do it when I want to remove a lot of intra pricing chatter...but not at the sake of losing important opening price data. You lose a lot of range on your trendlines.

IMO, there isn't really a need to switch charts here

Lara,

No. Not bearish at all. I am watching for this to eventually break resistance.

Macallan12,

Its not bad...

Tom,

My entry in this pattern is a break of the neckline. If you want to learn more...

www.optionaddict.net/price-patterns

Anu,

Good question...go to the website of the ETF. For example, is it is an ishares product, go to ishares.com and search by ticker symbol.

Doji,

Pot looks a lot different in my eyes. It is only a few points off the highs.

Grace,

I agree.

Poundcake,

Send me a picture first!

Grace,

My opinion on earnings in a bear market is that the market takes the news inversely. (i.e. if it is bad, it can't get much worse...let's buy or wow that's good, let's sell before something happens to my money.)

I struggle to see your head and shoulders on the SPX and in my opinion there has not been enough trend (up) to consider a topping pattern forming.

Either way I agree...lower should still be in the cards.

Berkshire

Entered DRYS today - bought put.

Promptly got stopped out. I think I'll chill for a bit yet.

Jeff,

What do you think about JOYG and BUCY as possible coal plays?

Jeremiah,
I'm holding onto my PCU puts also. Toward the end of the day I'll check the volume. I'm still liking the lower highs and lower lows here. I think we're ok.

Sean M and Poundcake,

I have resistance for PCU at 94ish. I used intraday charts to determine this number. I am still in. I am also curious to see how the market reacts to the H&S pattern noted above. If the market rolls down from here - a lot more down side to go. My price target is 82.50 - happens to meet the 5 year support trend line.

Is that an inverse H&S I see on the CROX intraday chart? Does it mean much?

Axman,

BUCY
I see a possible head and shoulders top (LS 12/11, Head 12/26, RS 2/4...both shoulders we're the same price) No other contrarian factors to weigh in on that one.

JOYG
Is putting the finishing touches on a multi-year counter-trend rally. I would take some long term puts on this one. Long term target is about 30.

I would be a little cautious on both as the machinery manufactures will often perform differently that the metal group for which they provide.

Berkshire

Ok need advice. Yesterday I got into CNX around 73 which was also the point close to where I would exit if support didnt hold. So I set my stop for 72.75, stock gapped below, I sold and now today a day later it's 75. What did I do wrong? Did I not give it enough time or did I do the right thing?

Interesting.... I'm long ATI several are short ATI. Anybody nervous ? Well neither side should be if your trading your plan. The short will come to you if it sets up right for you. And my stop is in place.

New topic...could you call that a H&S on MICC. I see the neckline more clearly on the line chart at 105. Earnings are coming up so options are pricey

ATI....

Volume up has been light but today it seems to be a bit ahead of yesterday. I guess until it breaks resistence, I should not be worried and I should be patient. But really....WTF? Am I missing something here that is giving this stock strength in a down market? If it doesn't go down with the rest of the market...what happens when the market rallies?

Berkshire, Good point about inverse reaction to earnings during a bear market. NYX blew expectations 2 days ago and went down 14%. Crazy.

Still 2.5 more hours to go - what a volatile day!

STRA requires strangling, no? Being that earnings are on 2/14 how far ahead would you buy and with how big a spread? (Sorry for the basic questions, I've never done one of these before)

Berkshire,

Thanks for the insight. I do believe in the coal story and currently do own names like (BTU, ANR). Guess, I'm trying to squeeze every penny from this story.Greed setting in? You set me straight lol I considered these secondary plays. But on closer examination I do see a HS on BUCY.

Grace,

I don't see the 94 support you mentioned on PCU. I did try using the intraday charts. I went back and listned to Jeff's 2/4 watchlist and he had drawn resistance at 100. Either way, I don't think it is wrong to still be short on PCU . I just couldn't stomach the ride back up in this market. Good luck!

Thanks for the great picks Jeff, lovin' the bounce today in financials, retails, and homebuilders, GES up 9% !!

Chuck,

The markets are up today. That could be giving it strength.

Berkshire

Sean,

I used 5 day 15 min chart and saw that PCU hesitated around 94ish area. Anyway, I wished I had taken half off the table this morning.

ATI - I'm still stalking this for a short entry but I think it has a bit more room on the upside., possibly to nearly 80. If it doesn't get there, I'll wait or pass.

Thanks for the price patterens Jeff.

I own ACI (stock) and it looks like it breaking out of a bull flag.

Financials are leading the market up today.