Jeff, several things, mostly from the last blog entry. . .

First off, this I copy/pasted this question from another user.

Jeff-

On CLF, do you see it going down to touch the lower support line (90-ish) once more before it bounces, or with the higher close today, will it just proceed upward to attempt to break out above resistance?

Thanks
Thu, February 7, 2008 at 05:21PM | Unregistered Commenter
ode2k

I was also wondering about this. What do you see that makes you think it's going to break upward? To my untrained eye, it looks like it will go to at least the lower trendline if not break through it. Are you thinking the previous partial decline is going to provide support? Any chance you could break this trade down into real specifics like you did for NVDA back in December? Those kinds of posts really help me.

2nd, I don't think the ag bubble will burst until the government decides to stop backing ethanol, though there are rumors of this happening already. And even if that happens, wheat should remain strong as every wheat growing area in the world has had weather problems.

I'm guessing even more acres will be pulled out of conservation programs this year which will be good for MON since they have traits in pretty much every crop. Also a guy at my coop told us that they were 80 tons short on the potash they ordered this year and that potash seems to be in low supply. That should be good for POT. Also I've read in farm magazines that farmers are buying lots of tractors and implements, good for DE, AG, CNH.

3rd, how do I trade gamma. I see you mentioned that in this post, that'll tide me over for now.

BTW, I sure don't mind you bragging up your wins, it reassures me that you know what you are doing.

thanks for sharing your positions, but you forgot long WYNN.
BTW I'm short BA. seems to be moving in the right direction.

My trading style: is now havoc trading. My trading outlook is down to hours: to bull/bear/bull! Jeff, for you to make a statement on a stocks direction (either way) is courageous. Anyone reading what you post need to understand, ‘these are Jeff’s opinions.’ Jeff enters & exits: calls, puts, spreads, complex spreads, sell/buy at his determined entry points– so if anyone is hanging their future on what Jeff prints is a crazy fool.

Jeff (my hats off to you), you are a master of your trades! As you know (for me); I am very open, independent and a rogue on this blog (that’s me). But you Jeff, put to type your picks (free). That does not, will not and is not one’s ‘dorm pass’ to just jump into a trade. This does not mean t that I always agree with Jeff – in fact, he might be buying (the stock) & I am selling – that is the market!

Anyway this gent; I’ve watched, studied, learned (almost 3 yrs). I do not always agree but I respect Mr. Jeff Kohler! Anyway, if I keep going, I’m going to get teary-eyed (rest assured he’s not my type – to short – plus girls don’t they say big feet... ???).

Cheers!

Jeff,

Thank you for "keeping it real." When you're good, you're good. But you are great! And even that is probably an understatement, but you get the point. This is not something new from me or anyone here, but there is nothing on the web that comes anywhere close to what you have created here on this blog. Thanks for sharing specifics about your trades. Not that I'll ever be anything close to the trader you are, but the education and information you put out is awesome and gives me a renewed motivation.

Thanks so much. Now, I'll shut up and proceed to further digest what you wrote.

Jeff,

Thanks for all you do. I am still struggling with implementing you timing in this market but I am committed to learn. I remember that time when you say that “the crowd turned against me”… but I say Keep it coming. I think that it is very helpful to see what you entered and are holding from you list. Also, it keeps me striving to refine my rules to be more like yours and know that this system works… even though it is a little painful to see my results compared to yours. But you know, that’s my problem not yours

Calvin

"Apparently, I was being "arrogant" about taking other peoples money and using it to buy ridiculous things...like dubs on my SUV, fine Italian suits, and flava-flav style jewelry."

Fine Italian Suits for who? I have never seen you at an Investool Workshop/outing, but I think you seem more at home in cutoffs and casual shirt....

Been a great week or me too. The TV Nut Cases just talked about going long VLO their reasoning is the Call volume in FTO.

What do you make of the FTO March 40 calls? The volume is 10,183 and the open interest is 1,190? Will the open interest show tomorrow or at the end of the day today there was 10,183 traded and 1,190 still outstanding?

Thanks,

Flying-pro

Being able to adapt quickly is what got me into trouble in Jan. You talk about plans and rules in place for that. Any specific insight on this would be so helpful. I've reviewed many of my trades over the past 6 weeks, but what I relate to the most is with this volatility not really being sure what will happen next. I may have strong ideas about direction but no conviction.

I'm trading the overall downtrend,but also stalking any potential signs of a reversal.

I must admitt its easier being a bull than a bear.

For the love of my 1976 Green Oldsmolbuick -- is that Nate Tolstoy. War and Piece looks like a pamphlet compared to that post.

Jeff,
Your take on shorting the EM currencies as history tells us they follow the Fed in the monetary policy (The Euro notwithstanding too new)

Cheers,
Arty

Jeff,

I was curious on your LONG on XHB.Seems to me that the home builders would be the last to recover from the sub-prime mess, but I am certainly no expert. Just curious what our thoughts are on having XHB move up. We we looking really LONG here (stock over 1 or more years)?

Thanks again for the great throughts and experience you bring the group.

Eric

Jeff,
How dare you jump into MON w/o confirmation yet you shy away from HANS. You must have needed some negative Delta and couldn't waite.

Just finished watching the Apprentice, not as good as the first ones. Still, the Donald (like him or not) he has done well!

Anyone still in GOOG? Just looked at my Theta - gotta love the big numbers into next week. Don't like the way GOOG is hanging onto the $500 (go up) – its a test of nerves! If google works, it will be better than robbing a bank – So, “here comes the money -or-!” Else, back to the drawing board!

Nice set up on LIFC which shows a break out in after hours trading. I haven't analyzed the options yet but thought some might want to take a look.

Research firm Canalys released its fourth quarter shipment data on the smartphone industry. The bottom line? Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone is now in second place in the U.S.'s smartphone market. Globally, it's in third place.

My take: from the note above and taken from http://www.bloggingstocks.com/ When the bear is out, don't argue!

CSUN - Is this a good entry for a bullish position? Or would it be wise to wait to see if it decides to break below the lower trend-line. (1 year chart). It seems to be in an ascending channel and just had a small double-bounce of the bottom.

Thanks

Jeff,

Thank you for your Real List. I am confused though on something you said....

"I am trying to stay delta neutral and my position sizes are around a half percent."

Do you mean you only have about 16% (32 positions @ .5%) in the market now or did you mean your trade risk on each position is a half per cent?

Raimo

I put on 1/2 postion in IBKR about 2 weeks ago at 32 and change. When it closed above 34 last week on decent volume, I added the other half.

My exit is 31.50 - sound ok?

Any thoughts on buying a bull spread on CME - buy MAR 520 and sell MAR 540 for $10 debit?

The guy on Street.com is suggesting it as a no-brainer....its already in the money 8 bucks.

You're long the homebuilders? Curious why? Your timeframe must be VERY short.

Jim. I got into PCU a few days ago and am looking for a drop of 20 to 30 points. I'll be happy with 20 and shoot for 30. Anything in between will be acceptable and I'll take the profits so Arty's grandma doesn't yell at me.

Sarah. I love BA and wish I'd noticed it a few days ago. Nice call.

Tom D... I have met Jeff in Orlando and his beautiful Polyester/Spandex blend was looking a bit tired at the time. The Italian Job should be a nice improvement. Bowling at Bowlerama will never be the same. One suit for each night of the week. Add that to the spinners on the SUV and it's lights out in Nevada.

Now that's class.

ode2k,
I don't see anyting on CSUN that indicates a bullish trend. If ever there were a "Wildly spinning star cross" this would be it. It looks to me like it's going to sit between 7.50 and 17.50 for decades. But I sure don't see a trend. There are way, way better trades out there.

IMHO.

Hello Jeff,
Arrogant? Please don't listen to this non sense, people are only jealous. Thanks for all that you do for us, trading is very difficult, we really need your help, I am sure many of us would have stop without your guidance and encouragement.
Please be above all that and keep mentoring us. You are the best Jeff I started to see price pattern after looking at your postings for quite a long time.

Are inverse head and shoulders suppose to be at the bottom of a downtrend? BBBY ?

MRAM,

I would suggest against it. My take is a good 50+ left to the downside.
Though I usually take the opposite side of what is on TV.

Ken...(I think you were asking about Elliott),

Elliott Wave Principle (Blue Book) by Prechter and Frost is a must read. (2x here, with a tablet full of notes).

If you don't believe what it says, or have trouble understanding, the book should be a very good lesson in fibonacci retracement/relationships.

I would be happy to give my input, but as I said...I am a young student to ALL of this.

Good Luck.

Berkshire

Jeff,
Okay after 2 hours I can't find good info. on TOL on why to be "long". I respect your expertise and definitely don't want to be on the wrongside of a "guru". Enlighten me, are you looking for a countertrend ralley, 2, 5, 15+ days in the housing stocks. Just trying to see things from your viewpoint.

Thanks,

Mike

MRAM,

Full disclosure...I do own puts on CME right now.

Berkshire

Jeff, if you like the pattern on CLF, check out APOL. Not quite as big a triangle but a nice expected move nonetheless and there are no earnings coming up to deal with.

Jeff, I’m with you in thinking the bulls could not have been feeling all the love they wanted at the end of the day today, and after synthesizing all the opinions I listen to (yours is primary) I agree we are heading down.

I for one am glad you are still being "arrogant" (if you want to call it that – I don’t consider it so) as it leads to much learning for me. I only hope someday I can go out and help people in the same manner as you are doing here and I want to buy totally useless things too.

I realize the trades you listed might not all be open at one time, but from counting them it appears, as you have indicated, your account is balanced between calls & puts to be delta neutral.

I may be asking a totally obvious question, but what does it mean when you indicate “my position sizes are around a half percent”?

Thank you so much for all you do for this community. I enjoy and look forward to reading your writings, watching the videos and the community you have built through your generosity.

Denver, I just asked him the same question about the .5%. It would make sense if he meant he position sized so that his trade risk is .5% for each. But I won't attempt to speak for him.

Doji, I appreciate your input & was guessing that, but was not 100% sure.

Thanks, Denver

A couple more ideas:

Bearish - BWLD - right at resistance
Bullish - NTGR - right at support (Look at a 5-year chart)

Entrys and Exits - Entrys and Exits - Entrys and Exits

F2T,

I understand you don’t agree with Jeff on everything and I’m willing to bet he likes it that way. I am looking to you for a little clarification on part of your post re: “My trading style: is now havoc trading. My trading outlook is down to hours: to bull/bear/bull!”

As you indicated your outlook is down to hours, I was wondering if that literal. It seems every time I leave a position open overnight I get slammed the next day (maybe not quite that bad, but it feels like it). I’ve spoken to IT coaches and they tell me trade what I see and assure me I will make more money trading the trend then I will playing a trade for the day. The problem is it is very hard for me to call much of what the market is doing a trend. For profitable trades at the end of the day, and before staying in overnight, I have started placing a stop so barring a gap against my trade I will be profitable or at least have the enjoyment of a free trade when I get stopped out.

Any advice you, Jeff or the other OA’s can give will be appreciated.

Thanks.

Doji and Denver:

I'm sure he means .5% in each position. Keep in mind that he most likely has a ton of positions open. Unless you're as good as him and can keep a constant eye on everything, we can forget about having that many open positions. (Or we'd get crushed...)

I try to keep my percentage in the 3-5% range in this kind of market.

But everyone makes their own rules....

C&C-

Thanks for the input. I was mainly thinking for a short-term trade on CSUN it seems like 'if' it continues to follow in it's channel, it would be an easy double in a few months. Not that we're going for the get-rich-quick type of trade, it just looks like the trend is headed in that direction.

Here's what I was seeing on CSUN

http://img526.imageshack.us/my.php?image=20080207toschartssu1.png

I picked up on what Doji Girl first pointed out. It appears Jeff left out 1 big position, CASH. Maybe I should follow his lead.

Jeff
When you can walk the talk, that's not arrogant. So please keep sharing your insights and teaching us.

Before I started reading this, some of my best trades came from your suggestions on the 'Cast. Keep up the good work!

Jeff
First time post but long time follower. I just want to second what Janine had to say on her post. Those naysayers are waaay to serious. It's not bragging when you can do it. Keep it up.

Sarah
Like my position in BA and hopefully, like last time, for another nice gain.

Denver & ALL!

If I said havoc (tongue and cheek).
A person stopped by tonight (his mutual funds were down $35K for Jan), and (for the record) a few know that I am active trader (most don’t understand, so I leave it at best a short sweet – yeah, I play around – they all think I gamble. I go on to ask, “if you had a heart problem would you let me operate – we all know the answer! Now, I ask, if I had 20 years of education and practice would you let me work on your heart – most finally agree that maybe a trained trader could do a heart surgery on an AAPL – your turn to laugh at this remark – I liked it!).

Anyway, (folks) we do not have to trade all the time. I am 56 years young. Wealth as Mr. Walmart once stated (Sam Walton), ‘everyone thought Walmart was an overnight success, (he goes on to say), it was 25 years in the making.” So, why does everyone on this blog have to get rich tomorrow and poor the day after? I DO NOT UNDERSTAND! Jeff, please do the math as food for us all! If not, I will be happy to plug in your numbers on my HP 12C as you go into your 90th year on earth (provided you don't smoke, exercise and keep your seat belt on).

Denver,

Sorry, I unloaded. The first of January, I got kicked in the mid-section. It was hard to switch from Bull to Bear! We humans are not geared that way. Now, I feel, I could get kicked the other way for a bullish (cow pie). It's always easy to trade a market going one direction and now, its 'every which way". I know Jeff is more bearish than me - I am fearful of a the VC that does not play by the rules.

So, I call it havoc or sniper trading. Trade less - there are no 'queens boxing rules'. Down and dirty or safety in the bank (cash).

Today, I thought MSFT was safety - as an investment- slim picking - long. Time will tell.

Does this make sense?

Jeff,

Regarding:"Apparently, I was being "arrogant" about taking other peoples money and using it to buy ridiculous things...like dubs on my SUV, fine Italian suits, and flava-flav style jewelry."

One only has to look at your plaid bowling shorts and realize that fine Italian Suits do not suit you. You should let the bloggers know that you drive a Chevy Vega and save all your free cash for trading. I went to a funeral for a veterinary friend of mine. His passion was sailing. We were asked to speak anything about him that was interesting. One older gentleman said that " Dick always drove a crappy car.....but he always had a brand new boat". To me, it is all about fueling your passion. Trading is your mistress. Trading is my new passion and if I have to wear ugly bowling shorts and borrow money to buy your used Ford Maverick, than dammit, I am in!!!

I am truly sorry for the previous rant. C2 has had an unsettling influence on me.

F2T,

Having read several of your recent post I was guessing you were an active trader and had been around for sometime. As for me I have only been trading for approximately 4 to 5 months. Being relatively new I am content being in all cash or when I see what I view as a good setup I take it, but per Jeff’s teachings I stayed diversified and make sure to keep my risk to .5% of my account balance per trade.

What I get from Jeff is this is a tough market to trade in, and for now it is as much about preserving capital as it is growing a trading account.

I appreciate your response. It is the confirmation I was looking for.

Jeff: I can't find news on DRYS. It went up over $5.00 today. Also, thanks to you and the rest of the community, I started trading REEs, and it's been great. Also, given the volatility, I've been selling premium for the past 2 months and it's been great.I kept using REE to make several rounds and increasing my overall gains. Thanks for all of your lessons and ideas.

Jeff,

Fuck those that think you are arrogant. Plain and simple, who gives a rats ass. Your track record is what makes them jealous. And if you were arrogant, I'll take it, it puts $$ in my account.

Doji..CLF is a way better setup than APOL,There is no comparison. Stick with Jeffs pick here. APOL is stuck in a channel....

Berk..

Did you not go long when I posted going long CME the day before yesterday?? I don't like being on opposite sides of the fence with you brother!

Mram..

Can't help ya much on IBKR...getting in about two weeks ago (without knowing what day) at $32 looks like it was not a great entry from what I see...and I think an exit at $32.50 is too tight..my opinion...especially since I'd like to go long at that price, if I get my confirmation!!

The biggest mistake I see traders making (been there so I know) is taking a trade on a day that the stock is making a nice move, but you are too far away from a manageable exit..therefore it is an emotional entry (and shacing the trade), not a technical entry. Then,m before you know it, the trade has turned against you from a loss point of view, and you get out, then the price action does what you wanted it to do in the first place, and you are left in the duest, with a loss, that would have been a profit. Sound familiar? Make sense?

F2T...

Bob@raimo.com

Ode2k,

CSUN....

I think this a low risk bullish entry...the lower channel line to be used as your exit...I see light support at $8, and possible weak resistance at $10..If it continues to channel, nothing wrong with doubling your money if a stock play! This is an excellent R/R, at EE. (keep in mind that this channel currently only has two points of contact 8/29 and 11/27...where the price currently is now does not count as a point of contact until it bounces here.....which it has not done yet)

Scoot

Show me your flava jewelry, GLD, DBA, AEM, CNX anytime....

Jeff,

Thoughts are well expressed!! Will look forward for video on Daytrading System.

Thanks, Meena

raimo
great point on rookie traders(like me), I'm not set up nor have the confidence to be nimble, hence emotions and 'wants' interfere and gains turn to losses.
I;m learning, in mostly cash, paper trading my rules till I improve.

RAIMO - how you fixed on DRYS? Do you see $70 as pivot point?