GLD was a great entry point earlier this week, I got in at 87.65, can anyone bet that?

Anyone else notice that ISRG is teetering on the edge of a 45 point cliff?

I think all gaps will get filled eventually. Soon
would be preferable.

Berkshire

Jeff,

You can buy my Feb $127 SPY NPs for $0.57

Deal?

SWIM - on the 61.8% retrace! What's going on, 'did SWIM' piss of some investors?'. ETFC goes up and SWIM goes down. That did it, I'm finding a new hobby.

IBKR getting tasty here...put this on your list for monday along with STI...

Raimo,

Thanks on IBKR - 4 Monday. Now, when will CAB start moving? I need some more spring fishing stuff!

I will be one of the people that is not thinking about going long banks here. I passed on the last round of puts because of some divergances, but I am liking them to go down now.

My basic approach to shorting banks since before the top has been to enter and hold short. Exit before Fed Days. Otherwise, I wouldn't expect any new/outside influences to help them out for very long. The problems are too big and too wide spread.

Personal View.

Berkshire

CAB at resis, a nice inverse H&S..but earnings in the way...and I LOVE CAB..I live in that place. If you have never been to one, it is a must go to store.

Raimo- I still have puts on STI. I don't see assertive higher highs or higher lows, the stock has been in a downtrend, the volume is weakening the MACD and Stochastics are rolling over. What are you looking at that gets you so excitedly bullish about this???
Stan

Raimo,

Judging by the trend what do you think CAB's earnings will suggest?

Berkshire

berkshire- Nothing would make me happier than to see ISRG fall off that cliff as I am short Feb 290 calls. A little too much of an upside surprise on a pre-earnings strangle.
Stan

Jeff,

I've been holding on to BVN now for a couple months. Miners have been looking good lately like you mentioned. With the TA charts for BVN do you see an ascending triangle or potential double top forming? How can we differentiate between the two? Anyone else care to add?

Shawn,

If you notice a potential double top that could also be a triangle, where the stock falls to and off of the top should help determine the pattern.

If it falls to the triangle line, it could be a triangle. If it bust through, could be a double top. If you recognize the resistance ahead of time, perhaps you should take some off the table as it closes in on resistance.

Also, some traders like to see around 5 touches in a triangle (3 on one side 2 on another) before calling it a triangle.

Berkshire

I should have followed my rules. Had a 20% gain on ACI and DIA today and didn't take them. Now I'm under by a good amount. That's what I get for failing to follow my rules.

It doesn't matter though because I just won a Shadowtrader and Thinkorswim monkey. And the markets can't take that away from me.

Stan,

$63 is support,if you were short this, that was your exit.

My opinion of course...and I reserve the right to be wrong.

Berkshire,

"The problems are too big and too wide spread."

I revieved a report from Goldman yesterday that oulined 2008 write down expectations for the financials. They see CRE as a problem and Options ARMs, and HELOC creating write down roughly the same size as subprime, but more slowly. What they did not go over was the leverage loan market. If you want the report I can send it to you. It is great These have been my best trades over the last 6 months.

DMS425

Jeff if you would like to read it I can do the same.

Berk, I dont spec on earnings, ever. Even i you r right, u don't always know how the marklet will react to them.

CAB, I need it above $15.....and since i need 20 more tree stands this year for my hunting lodge, maybe that will help if i order them now :)

Jeff,
I am impressed with your call on XHB. That thing refuses to stay below 20!

For those that didn't take DBA, check out DBC breaking out today.

I'm put shopping if anyone has someone indeas?

Raimo- I'll bet you a pair of Speedos lined with bear fur that STI closes below 63 and heads lower within a week! (maybe today)
Stan

Do you see any double bottom in RIMM?

DMS,

berkshire.rockaway@gmail.com

I would love to read it.

Thank you.

Berkshire

Stan,

You may call it "Speedos lined with bear fur"......I call it "ball to ball carpeting".

I apologize in advance.

Raimo,

Fair enough. If you don't do, you don't do it. As far as I feel, earnings are another (like news) reflection of the past. If it has done bad, the chart should show it.

However, I agree that you can't always predict how the market will take the news. Though depending on how you think the market is performing (bullish/bearish), you should also be able to interpret how those earnings SHOULD be taken.

However we all know what happens to what should have happened.

Sarah,

Most of the stocks that are up today (FSLR, FLR, RIM, PCR, FCX, MON, PCU) are all good shorts in my book.

Berkshire

CAB - bought a $500 Diawa Steez reel bait caster with my CAB trades (a few months back). If you ever get to Draper, UT. A new one just S. of IT. So, what is the problem with CAB? - major expansion thru-out this country (not the cheapest game) and their Cat. sales might be down. I check this one every day.

XMAN,

I could see, but I could also offer you a descending triangle out of it. Either way,
double bottom is not confirmed until a higher high is made. (As far as I know anyway).

Berkshire

F2T,

Nothing wrong, I just wouldn't expect much out of a specialty store in this economy. Even the staples seem to be getting hit.

Just my thoughts. Maybe there are enough of you hunters out there to keep them in business.

Berkshire

The prophet has spoken! I am casting my vote for SPY to 1275 next week also :-)

All my shorts went up today, starting with PCU :-( Trying to decide whether to close it out today or not - it is flirting with my line on the sand.

Sarah,

I left out GOOG, if it is in your price range.

Berkshire

Sean M.

I applaud your wit. That made me laugh until a hernia popped out.

F2T,

Great call there on SHLD, just now flipped to it...down almost 6%.

Nice

Berkshire

Just took profits on Puts on RHD for 209% gain in 4 days.

Nudged my portfolio 7% north.

Double Bottom (from the book)

The double bottom looks like the letter "W". The twice touched low is considered a support level.

Most technical analysts believe that the advance off of the first bottom should be 10-20%. The second bottom should form within 3-4% of the previous low, and volume on the ensuing advance should increase.

So, increase volume is most important & a break of resistance on high volume confirms the pattern. Is that what you are seeing?

Grace,

Have faith in your analysis and patience.

A rising tide floats all boats, falling tide lowers all boats. Some just have a little more buoyancy, than others.

If you expect the S&P to hit 1275 next week, why would you bail on some of you puts?

Berkshire

Grace,

I just took a bit on PCU at 95.5 and I am liking the set up. I see resistance at 98 and then again at 100. Your "line in the sand" should be on a resistance line or just past one.

I think it is still a good set up.

Thanks Sledge,

I would say "turn your head a cough" but I am sure that would be painful at this point.

Thanks, Berkshire.

SHLD - add more or wait till Monday -- my take break & now hold the last two days (pattern of $97.30) confirmed ride down! That my dear Watson could be a start of a double bottom. Time will tell! In the mean time, I've taken a few Craftsman dollars. Until this trading stuff started, I didn't know Sears was in the BEAR business!

F2T,

Thanks for the bookwork.

Grace,

PCU is also just about 61% retrace off of the previous move down. A typical play would be 61.8 to 123.6% (about 84).

Just don't like to see people bail where I would enter.

(Of course I'm not always right)

Berkshire

Sarah,

Glad to help, hope they can make you some $$$.

F2T,

For the double bottom are you talking short term, intraday, or the other bottom @ 85ish?

Just trying to see what you see.

Berkshire

Jeff,

Just now catching up. In response to your comments on shorting the OA blog, I haven't been able to post or contribute much because the motherboard on my computer met its demise, and I have been sporadically using my wife's employee laptop (when available) to try to keep up with all the posts and comments.

I'll be able to "bring it on" when I get a computer that allows me to install JAVA for charts and the like. For now, this laptop allows little due to her employer's admin software. Once I get a new computer or fix my old one, I will be happy to comment on what I see, if I think it will help anybody.

Your blog rocks. You rock. Pop rocks + soda = instant headache relief.

Hi

I’m new to blogging and shy about entering in here. Please be kind. First, Jeff. Your website is awesome in a hundred different ways. So grateful for your willingness to share. The fact that you don’t charge us for your knowledge and professionalism makes me gulp sometimes. But enough of that.

I just read that you expect the S&P to decline pretty quickly in the next week. I have Feb. puts on the SPY and was planning on exiting today because of the quick loss of time value on these options the week of expiration Friday. I am wondering if its worth holding onto these if there is an expected quick drop, considering the rapidly decreasing time value.

Thanks again for everything!

Cecelia

CNX bearflag breakout fo sho!

make that bullflag fo sho!

Berkshire and Westy,

Glad to hear your analysis on PCU - yes, patience. And trust in my analysis. I have been falling short in those areas lately which ended up costing me a lot of money. Thank you for the reminder.

Cecelia,

Welcome

Thanks for posting.

In my opinion, it depends on the strike that you are holding.

Berkshire

Raimo,
i split the bid/ask dead in the middle on SMTS no problem.

Cecelia,

Welcome, friend.

Grace,

It is much harder to stick to your guns in this market where many people are losing money, and almost everyone has a different. I would rather lose with my rules (that I will be able to reproduce in the future), than win with someone else's analysis.

Not that I don't appreciate other's analysis,
'cause I most certainly do.

Stick with it. It's not easy.

Berkshire

P.S. That's what the community is here for...

Thanks! Its the Feb 132