Judge Smails and Mitch Cumstein, my all time favorites. Loved that movie.

THanks for the list Jeff. Have a great day.
DEES

Great list Jeff. Be the ball Danny!

Kohler,

fucking awesome.

I love u man.

that says it all.

I think Raimo nailed it - great video - great ideas - great advice. I think your close sums it up - tough market getting tougher, much better start to Mch for me than Feb - many thanks for previous postings on how to actually trade correctly.

Jeff,

What Raimo said.

Thanks.

Jeff:
You are The Man!!
Thanks for all your do.
Robert
CANI

Jeff: Again, thanks for the watchlist! On CME, with the bear call spread, since you are looking to buy the OTM call as insurance, would you consider doing 2 strikes from the call that is being sold? Or is that too aggressive and unwise? I don't particularly like to do credit spreads but I agree that the high premium in CME (and also GS etc) is so high that it makes sense to sell premium than to buy.

Jeany,

If you spread 2 strikes out your max loss is way too large. And your R/R won't work.

Jeff,
Great list and great picks. Thanks for all your time and efforts.

Jeff and all OA's

Can you explain the significance of the fact that the $VIX didn't move last friday, and if you see a pattern forming now?

thanks so much

awesome list with awesome opening...oh my my...oh hell yeah!

Thanks for the list...
Great week everyone

Jeff, Every week when I see your list I get inspired that someday I am going to work it like you do. Thanks!

SueG, IMHO when the vix hasnt moved, the market has more room to go down. I monitor the vix vs the dow intraday. Check out some of these divergences to help trade timing.

Jeff, always appreciated...never duplicated! Although we all aspire to do so. Thanks for another awesome watch list.

Jeff:
Thanks for burning that midnight oil last night to create this awesome watch list.

Your weekly lists really make me look forward to Monday Mornings.

That Tom Petty song always reminds me of Kim Bassinger for some reason.

i fear bmrn could roast me like gild did....

Jeff and others,

Do you still think we can expect an earnings run for MOS (reporting in 3 weeks) or not in these economic conditions?

Thoughts?

Jeff, many thanks, as ever.

Everyone: I really enjoyed reading Friday's debate over a possible premature exit of ESRX. To be sure, I identified with the early exit takers, as I continue to struggle in determining a good system for profit taking.

Typically I set targets upon entering new positions but then end up taking much smaller profits earlier - even when these targets weren't overly ambitious. In many cases, I have no regrets afterward, but sometimes I miss big moves as a result.

I wasn't in the ESRX trade, but on Friday, for example, I took small profits on puts in MA, FSLR and RIMM after watching these stocks channel up and down - and profits come and go - all last week. I'm not sure if my exit was prudent or impatient. I suppose some of you would tell me I had no good reason to exit, while others might question my buying puts on these in the first place. I just might re-enter all three trades eventually - but as of 2:30 on Friday afternoon, I didn't want to give back profits on any sort of immediate recovery.

The discussion on this board lately about EE - entering trades with precision and cutting losses accordingly - has been enormously helpful to me. I think my entries have been getting more precise as a result. But when it comes to managing trades that appear to be winners - or at least haven't reached my stop-loss points - I really need to come up with a better way to make judgment calls: When to follow a trade to my target and when to exit earlier?

I think this is an issue especially for those of us who trade small - one contract in a position at a time - and can't scale out of positions as easily. Often when holding a single contract that's turned a nice profit, I take money off the table simply by closing my position and then re-entering a position at the next strike up or down, but again, sometimes this works for me (SLB last month) and sometimes it doesn't (CF last week).

Jeff has emphasized again and again the need to take profits quickly in this environment. At the same time, the charts Jeff posted last week on the likes of AEM, MTL, WLT, AMLN, and XL underscore the rewards of sticking with a trend and riding out the daily market hiccups. In my case, I have jumped and out of several of the above but have missed out on the big moves because I exited too soon, fearing imminent reversals or stagnation/erosion from time decay.

Of course, getting out sometimes turns out to be the right move - I took profits gradually in COF during its slide last month, then closed what remained of my position when the COF stopped falling, and then re-entered after COF went back up to 49. But in the cases of AMLN and XL, in 20/20 hindsight, I would have been fine to stay in these positions from the moment I entered them in late December.

The result of all of this: I have protected my account from losing ground - but I also have prevented my account from getting too far ahead. Maybe I need to keep my eyes focused more resolutely on the forest and not just the trees. Another way to put it, thinking of my two-year-old and her love for the Hundred Acre Wood and its characters: sometimes I seem to exit trades like Eyeore when I should instead stick to the mindset of Tigger!

My apologies for the long ramble! As usual, I will be away from the computer for much of the day, but I'd appreciate any thoughts along these lines. To those of you who seem to have these kinds of issues sorted - and strike a good balance between patience and prudence when it comes to exiting trades - how much of it comes from following the indicators and how much of it comes from intuition and instinct?

Thanks Jeff

I needed some longs to follow one part of your principle of disversification.

Anyone still in CLF?
I have Ap calls
seems to be holding at the 30ma, I have my stop 3% below that. I see next support at 105.

carrie

Thanks Jeff as always!

I would like to add FWLT to your breakdown list.

John

does anyone know why several other blog sites refer to jeff as "limp bizket"?

Jeff,

Great list.
Great audio trailer.
Great profit opportunity.

Thanks for all you do.

Added puts in AA, CENX, GNK, JOYG, NUE, SLB.

My relationship with DBA is over guys. It doesn't even deserve my respect - this break-up is going to be over text message. Later today.

Jake,

My guess would be jealousy.

Berkshire

Looks like EGN is making it's move down.

8-9 Points to go

Jeff and all other addicts,
If you see CNX 'toppy"

sorry about that...

IF you see CNX 'toppy' what about whole coal sector?

Looks like the AG stocks continue to get smashed...

Added Puts in AMZN, CNX, CF.

Calls in R, RRC (later)

Berkshire

AKS down big today. Looking like a nice entry here.

Thank you!!!

Good Morning Everyone

BHI from Jeffs watchlist last week looks to be breaking down from the sym. triangle based on the closing prices. Check it out.

Thank-you, Jeff.

And, as always, my boys love your watchlist musical selections! Your watchlist sound effects are much more interesting than their Latin work! :-)

OSIP- looks like a bear flag on the one day chart, getting ready to break its 10 day low.

Berk:

Late getting back to you (spent Friday digging out from 20" of snow) on your question regarding my take on TSO. Double bottom at $34. Agree with you it has been broken and now retested. Entry long would be a convincing break above $34. For a short entry I would like to see its oscillators get closer to overbought.

Sue G: I think you hit it on the head. Today's VIX is at the same level as when the SPX was at 1320.The
VIX needs to spike to 37 or 40 before enough fear is in the market to shake out the weak bulls.

Lots of money on the sidelines right now.

Prophet Charts acting strange for anyone else?

Hookster,

That much snow sucks. That analysis of TSO, is pretty good, but I would question why you want the oscillators to be "oversold" before you enter bearishly? Do you wait for oscillators to be overbought before you enter long? I must be missing something.

Could you enlighten me? It would be much appreciated.

Thanks.

Berkshire

Kim,
Yes. Mine are all wonky.

Yuppers.

Gotta love data feed/charting services...

Really makes you question what you are seeing.

Berkshire

Carrie, I am in CLF still, it looks like it's starting to move but doesn't 115 look like resistance to you? On Shadow Trader a few minutes ago someone wrote in about it ST said it looks like it's sitting up for it's bounce,hope so!

janet

VA
Yep, my Prophet charts are also messed up. They're showing the wrong candles often - until I refresh. Sometimes it shows only the Fri candles. Be careful..

Discussion Board Topic

Market Cycles

Thinking of taking some profits off ESRX today

jake2,

Where have you heard that nickname? I just started hearing it last week.

Jake2- any other blog that refers to Jeff as anything other than King Kohler is just jealous and envious of his track record and style.

The only thing that makes me nearly as happy as closing out a successful trade is entering a trade and then seeing Jeff recommend the same trade on his watch list (bear calls on CME). Gives me a little extra confidence I'm reading the market and charts correctly.

OSIP, ANR - Got in this morning as potential breakouts. They are looking good so far.

Watch CALM for a horizontal support bounce. Retested its breakout level.