Uncle Ben and The FED are Technicians
Tuesday, March 11, 2008 at 12:06PM When discussing how to draw trendlines, or talking technical analysis in general, I often mention that I use closing prices when drawing support, resistance, and general trendlines.
It is important to note that the FED uses highs and lows.
What are you using?
Reader Comments (117)
I think the FED's chart looks more "hung-over" than mine do.
Ironically, Jeff, that line extends to the start of 2006 (roughly).
I.E. Fed want to make sure people still have money from investing 2 years ago...
Berkshire
Don't let them tell you they aren't TIMELY...
LOL.
Berkshire
I typically use closing prices, since most of my trading is done towards the later part of the day and not intra-day.
Does it look like BIDU broke above the top of the Descending Triangle ?
SpartaChris,
I didn't REALLY want to know :)
I typically use closing prices as well.
liz
David,
Sure, but it hasn't closed there.
Well, I told everybody anyway. ;-)
From last thread...
ARTC just filled the gap and is breaking below 37.90. And there's volume. Will be even more before the day is done.
liz
Thansk Jeff,
The market wants to go lower, but the Fed doesn't want that 1280 level broken. It will break though, the only question is when.
APH looks like a good re-entry. Easy out. Right at EE.
liz
Berk,
What was your side of the bet again? Wasn't it 10700, or something like that?
Jeff
Agree
Is anyone out there buying financials?
BTW,
Jim Cramer is an assbag.
Mosan, you may get your wish for a 300 point up day.
One good thing about a rally (for shorts) is that it might encourage some firms to unload some bad news the next couple days.
Nate,
I agree and I think this "rally" will be short-lived.
Jeff,
MUTE mutton on CNBC .... You have taught better! :)
>>SpartaChris,
I didn't REALLY want to know :)<<
Heh, my bad.
Are you really wanting to know if anyone is buying financials, or is that another question yer not really looking for an answer to? <grin>
What did Cramer do now?
Jeff,
What. You don't trust his proprietary oscillator, It's never been wrong. Except when it has. It's saying buybuybuy. ;-)
I hope I'm right Westy, but I have to wonder what will happen with the fed meeting next week. The market has a tendency to get overly excited about rate cuts.
I think some of the future thinking about rate cuts could be priced in to today's action, no?
Jeff,
It is was $INDU 10,000 before 13000 and yours was SP500 @ 1500 before March Madness...
I will take that 10,700 though and ignore the march madness...Fair??
Berkshire
Jeff,
I take it you didn't like his take on loving ag stocks?
SpartaChris,
Considering .50% is completely priced in and .75% has a 60% chance, I would say it is pretty priced in.
IMO it was priced in at the last rate cut.
Berkshire
Nate
Ben speaks at 1.00pm on Friday
Jeff,
Thank you for ESRX, got out today near the low.
AMB is retesting triangle breakdown.
Bernanke that is.....
Or was it the fact that Uncle Ben listens to his show and takes his advice :)
As far as buying Financials, I might buy some PUTS
Nate,
For future reference, that huge volume spike on the shooting star is a pretty good indication of trend change.
Berkshire
For anyone who didn't over-anticipate this rally, lots of puts looking good...
Berkshire
cmon topping candle.
Jeff,
Are you abandoning POT? It is still holding its trend Line 8-25-07. Even with the big drops in the last few sessions. Thoughts, reco. anything?
REBIGDOG,
Jeff stated yesterday that he is out of ALL AG related positions (except DBA apparently). This includes machinery, coal, steel, fertilizer, etc.
Check yesterday's blog.
Berkshire
REBIGDOG,
Did you read my comments yesterday? I thought that was the biggest debate in yesterdays trading.
Berk,
Fair, but I will be more specific..
March Madness= Championship game.
That ought to give me some leeway.
Jeff,
FAIR. I was really sweating 10,000. I could easily see 10,500 but that last 500 points looks pretty tough.
I am glad you have a "time-stop," as I was afraid this might turn into a multi-year bet.
Berkshire
Jeff,
Do you think we have hit an interim bottom? Will this rally continue tomorrow in your opinion?
ICE just retested, sure hope thats it.
REBIGDOG
Agriculture having a good day, whether thats due in part to Cramer's comments or not, who knows. To paraphrase: Cramer said AG was a good group to buy into in a market such as this (oversold). In addition, he felt the market in general was due for a multi-day rally.
BERK - hope you were able to close out of your puts in CF. Big rally today, unless you think it is short-lived, which it might be.
So, we gonna see a sell off come the closing parts of today?
Jeff,
I'm quite new to the community. Having said that, I've read most of your greatest hit. Sorry if my questions have been addressed before, I may have missed it.
I need to clarify your answer though. Are you saying "Yes" in response to lowering your expectation when calculating the target for breakout?
I think the bottom was in yesterday. I heard this macro guy on the radio say that the second confirming low point before a bottom is historically five to six weeks after the initial low. January's low was like six weeks ago, right? No one is selling this rally.
Then again, I've been losing money hand over fist for four weeks, so what the hell do I know.
Berk,
What puts are looking good to you here?
Well guys, the market is now way above +300. 354 as I'm writing this. It kills me on SOHU, EGN and BIDU..
Mosan
PS: I've got to be patient I guess for all my puts to be profitable
No way...
This ought to be a multi day rally.
If you are on the sidelines, don't do shit until this cools off.
To quote Myself...
" What I do expect are the big ass rallies that come out of left field; invoking stop orders on your bearish positions and giving you a false sense of direction- which in turn convinces you to start legging into bullish positions.
In short; I expect it to get sloppy again. Bet that."
It seems like it was just yesterday that I said that.
Oh wait...
EWH at resistance.
Wolverine,
I firmly believe that this will be short lived.
However, I appreciate your concern. I am taking a hit today, but yesterday certainly makes up for it.
I have been speculating about the commodity top for a few weeks now. I did not say it would be a smooth ride down, but it will be swift.
Berkshire
don't think i am "buying this rally" looks like alot of stocks are moving right into resistance. Could be some great entries into some bearish plays tomorrow