Told You So...
Thursday, March 13, 2008 at 10:40AM 
You may be thinking..."Everyone knew Gold was going to $1000, Jeff."
You are right, but not everyone knew it back when I did.
I have the archives & podcasts to prove that one :)
PS- Stop asking me what to do with your GLD trade. I will take responsibility for holding your hand through a 60% return in this trade, the least you can do is make a decision about whether or not you want get off the ride here, or keep going.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have 100 e-mails to attend to asking me "what should I do with GLD?"
Reader Comments (218)
Nice call Jeff,
Make sure you have one for my DOW call...
:)
Keep it up.
Berkshire
For anyone who likes CALM, to me FDP looks a little like CALM was a month ago or so.
Berkshire
Is it time to get into GLD yet? ;)
Heres the 2nd chance for all you BMRN naysayers.
p.s. Jeff, I for one dont remember you saying anything about any gold.
Berk,
What do you think of AMLN? Looks like a 2nd chance opportunity to short here.
Is it too late to get into GLD yet? j/k
With the way the dollar and our economy is going, it seems to me like GLD might keep going over the next few months. I'm still in (albeit a small position). It took oil some time to break $100, but now look - seems like $90 is a faint image in the rear-view mirror.
Step,
Seem to me there is some decent resistance around $25.45. I am not a particular fan of biotechs (too choppy, and rumor-driven), but aside from that and it's fairly low short price ($25 is a little smaller than I normally like), it looks real good.
I will probably take a little stab as it breaks 25.5.
Berkshire
"Is it time to get into GLD yet? ;)"
Stan,
Thanks for brightening up my day. Couple that with thoughts of the few people that lost money in this trade along the way and giving me $hit me over it makes me smile today.
Step,
"Jeff, I for one dont remember you saying anything about any gold."
Ha! I don't recall you saying anything about BMRN then either.
Thought this was funny since we are talking about gold...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7294665.stm
Berkshire
Jeff: U are Golden!!
Jeff,
You've always been golden to me :)
I didnt think you were reading:)
Along with BMRN, put me down for PETM going the way of the dodo bird in 2008. This economy has no room for a shopping mall for poodles.
Awww......
Or stocks that go bankrupt via price patterns...
he he he...
Hi to all you Option Addicts out there. I have been an avid reader of this site for a long time. But this is my first time to speak up. I have been lurking in the shadows. I just couldn't resist any longer!
THANKS JEFF! For the great blog and all your help.
My dad always said "when the economy is going into a recession, buy GOLD". Well, when Jeff started telling us to buy gold--I did!
That's it--I can happily go back to lurking in the shadows with my wonderful gold profits.
Great call Jeff. I tried to play this one with gold stocks along the way (against your advice) with mediocre 9at best) results.
Just a thought - the inflation adjusted all time high for Gold is like 2 or 3K /oz, read it somewhere
As for now, lets turn this car back up the hill....
Berk-
That's just funny!
SpartaChris,
Someone got a "steel" of a deal...
LOL
Berkshire
Gumbo,
Did you sell any of your HUM calls ? I"m going to sell half and then be using the house money, not bad for one day
Step
I'm still in BMRN, looking to add more..
Kelso
ADSK is testing my patience.
For those that were offended by my comment..
"PS- Stop asking me what to do with your GLD trade."
I was kidding.
That many hate mails already, eh?
You need to watch your mouth Jeff...
Berkshire
Someone bought calls on healthcare?
What balls!
Jeff..lol
Just HUM..I thought it was way over done after the 2nd day wash out, if it hadn't gone down so much with the wellpoint news I don't think I would have touched it..but like I said sitting on a 100% in a day I'll take it..lol
thats very good for me jeff.
Step,
I'm not sure if you're referring to me or not as a "BMRN naysayer"...hopefully not. I simply stated the R/R wasn't enticing enough for me at that price level. It certainly wasn't my intent to unbridle your enthusiasm on the trade. Keep in mind my decision wasn't as simple as whether or not to trade BMRN, I also weigh what other options am I considering for my limited capital...such as GENZ, which I mentioned once or twice already.
Meanwhile, the puts on POT have gone down the toilet...sure glad that wasn't me :) Go fertilizer!
Damn, finally right to times in a row ("the quiz" and listened to JK on gold back at $70) where do I pick up my prize?
well I wasn't offended. I make over 8K in profits on gold. No complaints here. Just wanted your thoughts on now that it has touched, will it continue to drive higher past 1000 on its way to ? or is the game over.
Jeff
You are a wonderful thoughtful person, sincerely thank you for your help.
Randy
Go POT. Buy the dips, sell the rips!!!!
Dave,
I did play the swing on the SPY, but closed my calls out on the downturn around 11:45. I don't know if calls are right here.
I hate these stupid news days.
The way everyone keeps trying to save the market here makes me wonder just how hard it'll fall if it breaks the MLK lows.
Nate,
REAL, REAL, hard. Subtract all of the upward price movement directly related to news. I think you would see we would be a few 1000 points lower. IMO.
Berkshire
Berkshire
Jeff, did you get to read the scenario I painted out in reply to your WWJD post? Id say it was spot on.
Wolverine - not at all - in fact I agree with you. I tend to work myself into a frenzy over my trades and this is my way of rallying behind them.
ANR and TSL up big, I think I am out of both soon.
Just what we need- another bail out bill. ::sigh::
maxwebr,
My comment wasn't directed at you...unless I have an unread e-mail from you awaiting me in my inbox.
I think Gold continues beyond this level, but I would take a few profits soon.
Kelso1,
I'm not being critical. I love to see gambling in the trading arena. Congrats on the move!
Step,
"Jeff, did you get to read the scenario I painted out in reply to your WWJD post? Id say it was spot on."
Sorry, I don't read my blog.
What did you say?
Anyone trading the ES lately?
Holy crap...this volatility is so money!
i think ADSK is going to kick me out at close today (line is at $34). Anybody want to buy my puts?
Cam,
Just like ESRX, if you want to sell them at my entry, I will buy.
Berkshire
here you go Jeff. this is how it played out in my mind...
i would buy front month puts 1 strike ITM. it would gap up the next morning over both horizontal and diagonal resistance on news of a buyout by google and then i would snap my powerbook g4 over my knee tearing the MCL ligaments. i then forward the doctor bill to the residence of a one mr. jeff kohler at which point he would get angry and shut down the site and the option addicts come to my house and beat me into a coma. after i recover i analyze my trading style and realize that Habit #7 is where i need the most work.
is this correct?
WTF..who missed the GLD messages?...They have been sung on here daily for months.
Some people where speedo's over their ears DrDirt.
Berkshire
Cameron, the volume has severely dropped off on the move up and it is hanging out at E/E. I am sticking around if it ends up here.
Cameron,
I will.
DrDirt,
TO the point where it gets old hearing it, huh?
Berkshire,
Is $34 your EE? This is the second trade in a row that you're offering to buy my puts off me. What am I getting wrong? Am I setting my EE a the wrong spot or something?
~Cameron
Berk
bahwaha
Step,
Something like that :)
Take a look at the SPY 6-Month Chart. Almost perfect downward trend can be drawn, that will bring us to 135. I say we pop to 135ish in the next few days and drop off from there.
Watch yourself.
Health Care ???
UNH - balls hell! Mar 12th @ 9:19 June $40 calls UP 74.19%
Headed back to home base & working a few trades in route! Playing the market in luxury - God! gotta love technology & the market.