I just got back from baseball practice..it's killing me....I missed so much market activity. Now I see Jeff is TELLING us when the dailys are setting up also??....DAMN...I missed some great trades I see....

Congrats Jeff on BSC..I never even thought of trading it....and now I am kicking myself in the ass. When will I learn to pay more attention to you? Jeeeesh...

I'll show you mine!

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e369/spartachris/LDRS%202007/My%208%20inch%20Thor/Thor2.jpg

This is what I do to blow off steam, and am looking forward to heading out in a couple weeks.

I'll post my weeks results as soon as I finish updating my journal.

Sparta,

Where is that rocket at? Looks like Antelope valley or even Ocatillo out here in San Diego.

I used to LOVE doing that stuff when I was younger, but it was never as cool as your photo.

Jeff - I am still too shy to show mine. Actually I would get over my shyness in a hurry if my equity were increasing, until then I better stick to learning. Thanks for this great week of blogging.

For those traders that are experienced and have increasing equity I would love to get the logic / rules that you used to enter exit winning and loosing trades.

Thanks to everyone for a highly educational week on the blog.

Doji - I feel the same. I play drums too and will be banging on them in about 30 minutes. Are you in a band?

Jeff, can you explain what you mean by increase your position size 1%-2%? Are you talking about trade risk or the actual size of position being 1-2% of your portfolio. And do you mean you increased it FROM 1 to 2 %?

(Ok, now I'm really outta here...look forward to your answer when I return)

Thanks...that clears it up.

Cameron-

That particular photo is from the Jean Dry Lake bed in Jean, NV. In the photo, it's on it's way to 9800' flying on an N2000.

It's first flight was last October on an M motor in Plaster City, out towards El Centro. I am hoping to fly it again in May on another M motor. Will see how things go!

Jeff, I personally like your spelling the first time better - guerilla as opposed to gorilla.

Guerilla: a member of a small independent group taking part in irregular fighting, typically against larger regular forces.

that pretty much sums up this crew youve gotten together.

Jeff,

What an education this week! Congratulations all around and many thanks.

Jeff,

Damn Jeff great week. I've been quiet lately on the comments due to this 3 week skid I've been on. Hopefully, next week I'll get my mojo back and I can share results similar to yours.

Congrats on a great week Jeff! I have been scaling back to go on vacation but have stuck with AEM since the day your wife mentioned it. Please thank her again!

Jeff,

Sorry I had cut back. I was doing some "re-ruling" for my account. Seems to be a little better now. I was trying to let everyone have their "voice" before I spoke up.

That's just not me...Back to the "A" game.

Thanks.

Berkshire

Hey Berk,
You from NY

Jeff, It's not arrogance if you can perform!! (As per Rush) Congrats. I am happy for you.

Thanks for all that you do for us!

Jeff,
Congrats on your great week and to everyone else out there that had big profits. Saw the post on BSC this morning but didn't have the moxie to go for it. Plus I was headed off to work.

Question for OAs that got into AMZN. Thought I was caught up on reading the blog and saw Jeff recommending AMZN. Stock was around 67 or maybe just under when I got in after checking out the chart myself. Got Apr 60 puts at 1.94 which declined at the close to 1.59. Had my line in the sand set up for 68 but didn't pull the trigger as I wasn't able to monitor the market at the close. Would be interested in hearing what other OAs that got into this trade are doing. Holding? Sold? Thanks!

Is it just coincidence or does anyone find it odd that BSC closed at exactly 30,the exact strike price of the high volume puts? Thank you Jeff as I was able to get in and out of this trade with a nice profit.

Jeff,

Congrats on such a great week.

Your only comment I have to disagree with is "it's a bear market. It's not suppose to be this easy."

For you easy,for me this has been the most difficult market to trade in. This is my first bear market so hopefully all my beautiful losses will cement some good rules as I become a better trader bringing in percentages like yours.

Have a great weekend :)

Jeff,

probably gone for the weekend. Thanks for the BSC...I was looking at that on a trade I was in with GS. I noticed the people in the trade never changed and only increased into the fed cut in Late Jan/Early Feb whenever. Open Interest anything to weigh into a position at times like that? Never really thought about it as rules go just noticed it before and the BSC post gave me a hmmmm moment.
Thanks for all you do...if I only had time to get on during the day that would be even better. Trading Confidence is up these days, what I pick seems to win, just don't have the time for a lot of it. Peace O tall Trading master.

OK Jeff,
I'm going to "put it out there". Please have mercy on me OA's. This is Mike V watch list for next week. ANF has been range bound for approx. 1 year between $70-$85. I usually trade it between 72.50-82.50. XOM is also range bound for the past 8 months between $80-$95. ANF is near where I normally would buy a call. XOM I would wait on to be directional. Or you could go with an iron condor for a $1.10 credit. I know Jeff, you don't like spreads. TTH looks to me as a descending triangle about ready to break for a $4 move. These are the trades I'm looking at for next week. (Jeff's watch list of course, will be added later) I freely admit I am a rookie and still have a lot to learn and any constructive criticism would be helpful. I hope this is what you meant O leader of the great apes.

Jeff-
You posted a lot of great threads this week. I learned a lot. And I promise I'll be "putting it out there" more in the coming weeks. My goal is to be a great trader and to never stop learning in the process.

Thanks for all you do. Have a wonderful weekend.

liz

I'm working on my technicals and see a couple different things on CAM. I see a descending triangle and a double bottom. How do you determine what's what?

Jeff - just catching up with this site. It seems my comments agitated you enough to refer to them in two of your posts. Sorry that was not the intended effect.

I mentioned BSC Thursday morning after putting on a position on Wednesday and didn't hear you comment about the stock. I was not relying on your opinion to make a trade.
http://www.optionaddict.net/blog/2008/3/12/wwjd.html?currentPage=3#comments

The point was to encourage a discussion of what was the best option play when there is a huge spike in volatility.
Turns out the stock dropped so doing anything would have made you money. You not making any specific response didn't make that much difference. Yet there still was no discussion of the "best" play.

Glad you made some money.

Have a good weekend.

Jeff

First Blog I have EVER commented upon..thank you for being here....and thank you also to the others who contribute..what you have created here works. Many try, few suceed. Again, thank you to all.

The original 57000 march 20 puts were bought on Tuesday.

Even more interesting 100000 puts traded in LEH down to the 25 strike with the stock at 39.

I am long a put spread, so I participate on any down side and have some protection from decay/volatility on the upside.

Calmwater,
I'd be interested to hear what other OAs have to say but on CAM I see more of a descending triangle based on looking at Jeff's patterns. I believe it would have been a great entry today at 43, exit at 44 if it goes against you, target at 38 in about 2 weeks or less. What do others say that have more expertise than I do?

I did exceptionally well with RRC this week thanks to your blog. That was the only position I've been in. I bought it after the horizontal and upward diagonal bounce occured.

I like taking your weekly watchlist and then filtering it down even further with my own criteria.

George,

I think its going to 53 after a close above 45.

calmwater/George

Today was certainly a good day to take a position in CAM. Jeff often refers to taking a position here as an anticipatory trade since it's easy to manage risk and you get an early start (and greater reward) if the pattern (desc. triangle) later confirms.

George - A double bottom hasn't been confirmed here. CAM would need a close above about 45 on volume to confirm.

Hope this helps. Have a great weekend!

Harry

My money says it sees 33 before 53.

Why?

Ben3,

I have seen you post and respect your opinion.

There seems to be some pretty strong relative strength.
Its up 10% since Monday and is only down .24 cents today.

What do you think?

Ben3 and Harry,
Thanks for the input. Wasn't sure about the double bottom and when it would confirm. Pretty sure I didn't see it yet.

Jeff,

(Been a silent reader for a few months) I'd put more out there, but everytime someone new shows theirs, they run of risk from certain people of getting insulted with sarcastic comments about what we're missing or how obvious something is. So its been frustrating to open up sometimes. It has never been you and for that I thank you, I feel you are truly giving us a learning and community enviroment in a positive way.

But for some in the community, if someone opens up with a question or comment trying to learn, their first instinct seems to be rhetoric questions layer with insults as if it was a dumb question. I'd name a name, but thats not how I roll.

Jeff... again, I really appreciate what you do.

Harry,

You may still very well end up correct, but I see a stock that had a confirmed double top. I also see a retest of that breakdown and now a descending trendline from the last high to today with another touch in late Feb. Low risk entry here with more to come if the descending triangle should confirm. Tight stop on a close above the trendline. Check out the trendline on the RSI as well, seems to confirm my thoughts with those lower highs. JMHO

Beginner,
I'm fairly new on the blog and know how you feel. I've been forcing myself to post more, but if some are sarcastic then thats them and not me. I take it as a learning experience and try to see harder what they are seeing. Most of the time even those that are sarcastic are giving some good information. Just blog away and don't worry. Best way to learn. As Jeff says, you need to hang it out there to gain knowledge.

Ben3,

It would be a low risk entry because of both horizontal and diagonal resistance; however, the volume and price actions leads me to the double bottom.

Thank you for your analysis. Maybe we should ask Raimo to tell us what his crystal ball says?

Harry,

Good idea. At this point, your perceived pattern is just as valid as mine. Not really a pattern at all, YET!
:)

I don't think there is a triangle on CAM, there's a large amount of 'white space' or lack of price action in January. I'm fairly new to TA though.

I'll show you mine... I've been playing it a bit conservative with OTM bear call spreads.

Expiring in March
ADBE 37.5/40
BK 50/52.5
BG 120/125
CEO 170/175
QQQQ 46/47
GES Short @ 40, with covered Mar 40 Put

April expiration
HOG 40/42.5
RIMM long @ 107 with Apr 100 covered call
UPS Apr/Jun 40 Call Calendar

All are profitable. Nothing huge, but profitable.

Since talking about option volume seems to be a big thing lately, heres a couple that interested me from the link on the side of the blog.

For 3-13-08
MON oct 150 call
5010 traded up 17,800%
OI 128

MLM April 110 call
1008 traded up 25,000%
OI 334

Its possible those are part of some kind of spread, I wouldn't know.

Can I chime in on CAM? A double bottom isn't a double bottom until it confirms with a close above $45. Then, an $8 move can be expected. I see a possible descending triangle also, but again - a pattern isn't a pattern until it confirms. Also, Check out Jeff's recent post on the 7 Habits and read Habit #6 - The perception of patterns where they don't exist...

Good weekend all.

Brian,
Trying to get a handle on these patterns and confirmation. What you are saying is this and correct me if I still don't understand. A descending triangle such as CAM would confirm if the pattern holds around 38-39? It's not a good risk to play the bounce off the resistance line of 43? Thanks for your help.

Jeff, BSC was great today.

Puts: AMZN(10%), LM(10%), BIDU(-80%)
Calls: BG(15%), APA(1%)

Still holding FCX with 20% loss and AMZN opened April 60 puts at 1.68

I would like to thank you once again for this community and your advice.

Jaldiwin

Sarah,

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound arrogant. I was trying to sound supportive. I swear, when I over compensate in some areas, I underperform in others (communication skills).

ownputs,

I was already pissed off before your comment, and it rubbed me the wrong way. I'm over it, hopefully we can move on.

Jeff,

Congrats on the week. A little rough for me with my best career day ever immediately followed by my worst day ever. Down for the week, up for the month and year, so I can't complain. Working on cutting those losers faster and taking profits faster in this market. I'm just a slow learner.

Thanks for the advice on insurance this week.

Looks like March Madness may get delayed from our bad weather in Atlanta tonight.

As they say, it's better to be pissed off, than pissed on.

A couple questions-

CREE - 5 year chart - I think I could see a few patterns, but I'm not sure enough on any of them. Any takers?

1. Cup & Handle (starting April 06)
2. Triple Top (at ~$35)
3. Ascending Triangle (starting April 06)

On AMZN, do you think we're going to 'fill the gap' south of $52.50?

Thanks,
MrVikes