Will have to stay out of this oneand try to learn about what March Madness is all about, as I know very little about the game. Born and raised in Brazil, I spent most of my time in the water as a Water Polo player or as a surfer during weekends.
Enjoy!!!

I'm in......I'll label my 20.00 'donation' if it doesnt involve speedos and clorine, I'm lame. just like my stock picking skills.
fernando, water polo player here also.

The BSC deal really makes me wonder if the options on LEH are showing smart money knowing they are going to implode too, or people just piling on all the financials as sympathy plays.

Jeff,

I'll pick my teams based on how I can get my teams' uniform colors to coordinate into a nice color palette. That should do the trick...

Jeff,

On a market note...any advice on how to control our account risk tomorrow? Or is it too early to make a judgement call?

Do you think that the feds can do anything to help the market stabilize at all tomorrow?

the voo doo that you do.....
oh how its wonderful.....buy GLD

Jeff, I'm a white boy that can't jump. How about two 45 minutes halves, kicking a soccer ball on the pitch?

DrDirt
Where R you? Still playing? What kind of DR are you?

Jeff
Thought I needed to know a bit to at least pick someone witha chance to win. I will jump in this one and learn along the way....

Nate,

I'm sure Jeff has a write up on it but if he doesn't, I have a little snippet posted on my blog.

http://investingadventures.com/2008/01/fomc-meeting-today-how-to-read-fed-funds-30-day-futures.html

Essentially, the May Fed Futures (ZQK8) are reading 98.215. 100-98.215 = 1.785. Theoretically, that's the target rate but we know the Fed normally cuts in 25 bp increments. In short, round up to the nearest quarter point and subtract the current value. In this case, it's 2 - 1.785 = 0.215. Multiply that number by 4% (each quarter point counts as 4% i.e. 1 basis point / 25 basis points = 4%). 4% * .215 = 86% chance of hitting 1.75. Hope that made sense.

Jeff,

Financial Armageddon indeed. Wish I was positioned for it though.

FERNANDO
I swam in college in the 60's. long ago water polo was a fill in sport in the off season.

JEFF - I just paid and then went to sign up and it said the following:

"Error: This is a private fantasy league. You are logged in with userid 'beamteam1', which does not have access to this league. If you think this is wrong, please contact the league commissioner and ask for an invite.

KEN M. - I am not into predicting which way I think MA will go, I will just listen to advice from Jeff and Raimo and wait for her to tell me what she wants to do.

SEAN - Hey man. We decided to go tarpon fishing in florida early april with the fellow at this link. Ill let you know how it goes man.

http://www.floridabackcountrycharters.com/

/ESM8 1262 right now, on their way to 1250.

Is any one on this blog trading futures right now?

The futures look like a volcano eruption and the market doesn't open for 11 hours. It will be another historic day in the market. Wonder what the fed will do before the open. They just opened the discount window to all banks. This is crazy!

Gold trading at 1026, at least my paper account will be banking coin.

Hey, former swimmer and water polo player here too! I've often thought of joining up with a masters league, but just don't have the time to commit.

Jeff,

Could you give us some guidance on how to get ready for moments like this. Looks like tomorrow the whole hell will break loose ( Remember the pic of the derailing train you've posted?!) I would hate to stay out if I am not prepared. I'm fine with $ management as I've been trading 0.5-1% per position.
Maybe you could add a short audio commentary to the wathclist....

I am trading the eminis. Got in at 1290. still going down.

Doji Girl,

I am sorry for your brother. Tough spot to be in...
It was due to stories like this that I decided to invest my time and $ to become a trader. This is my exit startegy. I make good money with what I do but trading is exciting, entertaining and ultimately liberating.
I know nothing will bring your brother's retirment fund back, but once again that reminded me of another reason why I should become really good at trading. And Jeff, Thank you for showing to us that it is possible!

Go Jeany Go!!!

Did you have to do something special to get setup to trade eminis or to trade after hours?

Sparta,
Great! I did join a masters league when I was in Chicago. It was a blast!

i bet someone (Jeff) held BSC waiting for a bigger drop! I was going to get in later in the day thinking a buyout would come for a lot less but didn't know my risks. I am feeling like i should have.

I agree Fernando. i would like to know how to trade this also. I don't want to miss another opportunity.

Any of you going to Veags on the IT conference?

Doji,

I feel bad for your brother in law too. Hopefully everything will be okay for them.

If you would have profited from the decline in BSC you wouldn't have had to feel guilty. You could have just sent him the cash (anonamously if need be).

Dandle: Need approval to trade futures. That thing started moving a few hours ago.

Jeany,

What is your target on eminis?

I am assuming you are day trading (or evening trading as the case may be).

Jeany,

When I posted that I thought it was on it's way to 1250 I did not think it was going to happen tonight, but it sure looks like it's still heading South.

You must be having a good time!

Doji,

As far as I know, GS shorted the other brokers with more sub-prime than them. Needless to say they are still raking in the dough.

Sorry about your brother.

Tomorrow will be beautiful.

Berkshire

Looks like March Madness is truly here

betred

Just got out at 1256. Hong Kong market opened with 5% drop. and China cental bank head made statement that it may raise rates.

Hi Berkshie - what's your plan for tmrw - place buy order to capture further downside, wait a little to see if Fed do something crazy, do nothing but sit on your existing postions, somethign else perhaps?

Some talk over the weekend that G7 may orchestrate move to resuce dollar - could be a week like no other.

I just got off the phone with them. They are pretty numb. The $2 is so ridiculous - the BSC building in NY is worth way more than that. They are saying it would have been better to let the firm go under. Someone set this up, beginning with the rumor last Monday which has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, enabling JPM to 'rescue' them for $2. Bullshit.

I sold my BSC March 25s on Friday, but bought some cheaper ones near the end of the day. I'm also hoping the AMZN puts I bought on Friday will do something tomorrow.

Doji - I think the problem is more systemic - the banks and hedge funds are leveraged to the hilt on buying into high risk/flawed assets - they've made out like bandits (guys at the top as usual)
- when this settles out I think some of the guys will be run out of the country - as is usual its the employee and mom&pop that get screwed over - I feel for your family but I doubt this is over - has the feel of a rolling stone.

Doji,

I think I read that BSC's building is valued at $8 / share on it's own. I don't think the deal goes through at $2 / share. There's something really fishy going on here. What are the chances of BSC being purchased for $2 / share, letting them recover, and them JPM "spinning" them off? Something doesn't seem right.

In any event, we're probably seeing history in the making. Keep us updated with your brother Doji.

Holy crapola! What is going on?

Oh, and they do think that LEH is next.

Jorge, thanks. And I agree, something is not right.

Jacksoo,

Depending on how the futures look tomorrow morning, I will probably enter some QQQQ and DIA puts. Hold them at least until the Cash indexes catch up to the futures.

Aside from that...I am not looking to add anything unless it is perfect, until Tuesday afternoon.

Berkshire

Berk,

Does it really work that way or will the indexes just open with a huge gap down and thus have no catching to the futures to do?

Berkshire - post fed announcement on rates you mean?

From the Analyze tab in TOS, my March 10 & April 5 puts (unfortunately only 1 of each) will have a combined 1106.73% return waiting for me in the morning! :)

Have a great night OA's

Nasdaq emini futures are at a 4.5% drop (1680). Looks like a bloody day tomorrow. Thanks to Jeff for teaching me how to be Delta negative. I used to be overly bullish, and emotions wouldn't let me understand being bearish. I'm beginning to learn the system now. Thanks!

Be ready to lock in most of your profits on puts tomorrow, IMO. This market could easily whip around on a dime, especially if the VIX gets over 40.

Yeah, the Fed will dream up another way to shore things up, albeit temporarily. But even if it does, I think it is temporary. The main fiscal crisis is not going away any time soon.

Is it possible you may get G7 intervention to buy the dollar? Perhaps off load more gold to finance?

Dandle,

The NQ is most likely to gap...as much as 1.5%. The $INDU and $SPX will gap, but to a much smaller extent.

Jacksoo,

Ya. I am toying with the thought of all cash before it.

Berkshire

Just curious what people who can't watch the MKT tomorrow (like me) will do?
I usually don't have written stops but tomorrow sounds like it is a good day to have those...
Right now I have only 4 positions opened and as I closed a few last week. here is what I have:
Long: DVN, GLD
Short:AYE, ESRX

Anyone playing any of these?

Step RE: MA, I will be waiting with you. Glad to be a spectator right now ... I was sooooo tempted to sell a couple Emini S/P's earlier but I have decided to play it safe and see what happens next as I do not trust the Fed.