Great.

I certainly enjoyed mine. I had been short these guys for a while, but felt a lot better, when you started backing my position.

Berkhsire

Good call Jeff!

Thanks

ICE has been a great one for me a couple of times.

Nice work on those.

Jeff,
I know nothing about basketball. I'd be happy to just give you $20, because I never win anything. :-)

Laney,

I picked based on uniform colors. Stick with the girls on this one and we'll get through it.

Jeff - my hats off to you. You're calls are nothing short of amazing... you should start a hedge fund! Its unreal. Keep up the great posts. much respect!

Having not been in Bidu right now... I am watching Bidu at this point to fall below 230 then I'm entering in for puts. Is that on the same page as others?

VA Beach, gonna jump back in NMX for another put play? It's back up from this morning...

Jeff,
I didn't think you were after my money. :-) I just meant that I never win anything.

Kim, That sounds good.

Berk,

Do you still keep on eye on R? I'm watching it :)

Mosan

Sledge,

Likewise on ICE...

Mosan,

I am watching for an entry today.

Berkshire

The question Sledge,

Is do we go front month, or play it safe and take APR's.

I lean towards front month...you??

Berkshire

Jeff,
I promise I will put my $20 in tonight--but I'll have to hang out with the girls and just pick cute names and pretty colors. I've done these before and done pretty well with that system.
I must go back to trading and following my rules--it's killing me!

Mosan,

Looking at a line chart, I see R right at support. Depending on how it manages the rest of the day, I will probably be in.

I see support (daily closes) @ 58.5 - 57.75.

Berkshire

Berk,

Man, that's a tough call. Only a few days left and a Fed cut tomorrow, I don't know, man. I just don't know. I'm gonna chicken out and say April's. The only thing I squeezed out of March options was BSC, but that was a really fast/lucky one. Of course, I'll regret not joining you when NMX tanks to $50 tomorrow. :)

DMS,

Thanks...XLF already up 50%.

Berkshire

DBA-

How come no one is mentioning a possible double top on DBA? Down hard today looks to me like confirmation of a broken neckline and a broken trendline. lower highs and lower lows over the last month. Jeff, what say you?

Sledge / Berk,

On both NMX and ICE: I am hoping the market retraces up closer to the end of the day and then I'm back in on both of those as well for April puts. Theres too many rumors of the Fed not wanting to satisfy the market by giving them 75 or 100 basis points. Any rally tomorrow I think is short term then. Thoughts?

Just talked with some Bond traders. They said BSC was thrown under the bus by the Fed to make an example. The fed gave the rest of the dealers access to the dicount window 5 mons afetr bear's collapse. XLF is goibg to make you some coin, and hopefully me too.

DMS425,

So you've got puts on xlf going forward?

I'm in.

For those wondering about DBA. The movement today was due to Oil Plummetting $4 on economic worries. Two bad things for DBA are economic worries and the price of oil falling.

It will re-bound tomorrow.

Berk,

Yes, I see that too. I've been watching it and saw that R has a good support around 58 area.

With the fed announcing tomorrow I don't know which way to go. Supposed to be going up, don't you think?

I'll be back around 30 mins before the market close. Need some sleep now. So tiring..

Sold my BIDU n SOHU with profits make me feel better. I'm glad to have someone to trade along which i do not have many.

Mosan

Keith,

The market will fall on any cut less than 1.25%. Futures are already discounting 1.00%. The Fed has already taken 3-4 surprise actions since last Wednesday. We are still lower. While we could have a set up for a HUGE upward spike, it should be retrace by early next week at the latest. IMO.

So far the Fed hasn't cut more than .75%, and that was a surprise, so I don't really see 1.00% in the cards. The market really isn't going to like that.

Not to mention, before the top, we rallied on rate cuts. After the top, rate cuts marked the top. Now, we aren't even going to rally into rate cuts...

WHY, you ask? Because they don't do anything. It is deflation, and the Fed doesn't understand. Even though Ben did his research on 1929 and Japan.

Gotta LOVE credit IMPLOSION.

Berkshire

keith,

Long Apr calls.

Sledge,

NMX How do you plan on managing your risk if you get back in here? Always manage your risk first.

Mosan,

R should likely rally tomorrow on good news. If it is bad news, we have a good Entry at Exit to take care of that.

Berkshire

Keith,

Regarding NMX, I'm just gonna take it here since it's off its lows so much. If it goes higher, I'll add to my position. Just my two cents. My cat just threw up again, hope that's not a bad omen for NMX, though.

APOL horizontal Break-out??

Berkshire

F2T,

I hope you made well on some NP's today. Seems like the kinda day you coulda made a killing on...

Berkshire

Berk,

If APOL close below 53 I think you can call it a breakout.

Is it $20.00 for each division or $20 for all the divisions?

DMS425, Bear didn't have access to the discount window because they were not a member bank! There is no truth in saying the Fed's made an example out of Bear. I highly doubt anyone would risk the entire capital system on an also ran. The Fed allowed for an orderly liquidation of Bear.

VA Beach,

You caught me. At this point, I'm gonna nibble here, but not buy the whole enchilada. I'm taking a smaller position than normal, so I can take the hit to some extent. But you're right, I probably should have waited to see if it moves back to resistance. The day-trading charts are lulling me into complacency. :(

BSC is a dealer and as of today dealers have access!!!!! LEH has access.

Berk,

Enjoy this ride on XLF.

I really think we rally big tomorrow on whatever the Fed says. Don't underestimate how oversold and short this market is.

However I think leadership will switch from energy/commodity/ag stocks to something else. I would advise everyone to use extra caution here on both puts and calls. I am 100% cash until Wednesday.

DMS, yeswhen did Lehman access the discount window?

regardless, there was no example made out of anyone.

DMS - I appreciate your input but I would like you to google discount window to see who can and cannot access it. Bear never could and the Fed used JPM as a proxy cause they are a member bank.

From Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1440507420080314

THE DISCOUNT WINDOW:

The discount window is where banks in need of short term funds can borrow directly from the Fed. But Bear Stearns is a non-depository institution and ineligible to borrow directly at the Fed's discount window, Fed staff said.

Since Bear Stearns is not entitled to go to the discount window, JPMorgan, a bank, "is acting as a conduit, to go to the discount window and lend to Bear Stearns," said Kenneth Kim, economist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, in Princeton, New Jersey.

gecko, DMS is saying that Bear couldn't access the discount window and then as soon as Bear was taken out, the Fed opened the discount window to all the other broker dealers. Basically the Fed unleveled the playing field by letting Bear fail and then allowing access to the discount window by competing dealers.

Hi
Anybody out there getting a delay on Prophet charts on TOS platform. Really maddening!
Dave

Trader,

I understand that we are oversold on dailies.

Are we oversold on WEEKLY, and MONTHLY also...

Remember, things can stay oversold for a long time. And some of the worst crashes in history STARTED when things were oversold.

The rules have changed. This IS a bear market.

Trader,

The leadership should pass to someone with a history of producing tangible goods.

Sounds like consumer staples to me.

Berkshire

GeckoJB,

Lets not waste space on the blog with this. I will gladly set up a discussion borad or you can since I am pretty busy today. After Bear's collapse the Fed gave all primary dealers access to the discount window. It is new. Dude that means I will not able to Google it. Seriously they have access.

JH - I may of focused on the wrong piece of DMS post. In any event the Fed had to circumvent the rules and twist the law, to open up the discount window to brokers. If there was no counterparty risk that window would still be shut to all brokers. I am moving on and sorry for the misunderstanding.

Dwweks,

I had to restart mine.

DMS245
Me too, but its only a temp fix. I have noticed this for about a week now. The problem is I hat TOS charts!
Dave

Gecko,

What does..."there was no counterparty risk" mean?

Berkshire

I exited my QID position for a small profit (14%), but I'm thinking up tomorrow and it's an April contract. Still short SLB and VIP.

I have an Iron Condor on the RUT, and today chose not to panic and buy back my short to take the ride down, and instead of being down today on it, I'm up. Gee, following my rules actually works. go figure.