Jeff, the watchlist video says no longer available

seems to be working now, not sure what happend there for a minute

Early morning (here) clean cups call. AND an order...

Thanks.

Looking forward to watchlist.

Berkshire

Check out the drop. USD/JPY. This is ugly.

I agree with ownputs. Its kinda a supply/demand issue with Bear. I really doubt JPM wanted them either, thus the $2/share price.

Jeff I think the last bit of your link got cutoff.

As always Jeff, thanks for the great list and ideas. I held on to some BSC puts thinking things could get worse--I think I'm toooooo excited to sleep now!

Does anyone know how to buy commodities like soybean oil or orange juice? Is there an ETF? Any offer options?

mike in Salt Lake,
DBA. Which is comprised of corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

Sounds like a plan, Jeff. Thanks for guidance for this scary week a comin'.

Jeff, Thank you as always.

Jeff,
Great list. I am long puts on QID, VIP and SLB. These are generally small positions, but I suspect that with the breakout on the VIX that we'll have a breakout on QID as well (ascending triangle). I entered on a support bounce. I'll be looking more closely at your list for entries this week.
So, this is me "showing you mine." :)

lisa

Jeff,
My Watchlist:
Puts: LEH, USD against any currency.

Calls: MA, V (after Thursday open, no down risk as no exposure to down turns. All risk in card issuer), DBA (on breakout above 43) & SLV (on breakout now up side 25 to 45 points).

That is all....BE THE BALL!!!!

Go anything west coast in NCAA.

God bless you all.

Steve

Thanks Jeff, much appreciated.

Thanks for the great watch list.

I am the ball.

liz

Thanks Jeff for another great list. Here is what I'm currently looking at...
Puts I do have on.. AMZN,BMRN and Calls on MA, DBA and a small position left in AKS. Looking over the list tonight and going back a few weeks to prepare for the upcoming week.

Thanks again.

MJ

GO PACK 10!

Jeff, thanks for the show ! Great list. Here's to being the ball ... not dropping it.

how you guys think dba and ung will play out tomorrow?

That's what I'm holding, bought on Fri.

Here is another one for the list. CHTT sitting on a support of 67.57 and one to watch for a break to the downside when it breaks. So many to pick from!

Wow, BSC... It's nice to see that the one $0.85 march 35Put will fetch you around $30 at open on Monday. Juts amazing.

I don't have any significant positions on right now, so I'm just going to sit-back and wait for a good entry on some stocks.

Off to bed! See you in the morning!

Sparta
I did masters swimming for a bit, its big here in Cincy.

Berk
I'm with you, I'm still all cash and watching, I'll share my pop corn, I got extra.

I get the feeling the FED and Paulson are on trial today, see if they can catch this ball thats rolling down hill. I think they are late.

Linda, Great Job.

Jeff:
Thanks!!!
UR D' Man
Robert

Got up at 5 Am to get the plan rolling before going to work.

Jeff,
Thank you for the list and I loved the audio at the end.
On the previous thread, I think I missed which post to go back an read...
This will be an exciting week!
Man, I love this game!

Linda,
You D'a woman! You will make it big today!

Good day everyone!

Jeff-

here is what it says when i try to sign into your league:

Error: This is a private fantasy league. You are logged in with userid 'beamteam1', which does not have access to this league. If you think this is wrong, please contact the league commissioner and ask for an invite.

I would just like to throw this out there. For anyone who thought there was a cap on how far something can fall (besides zero).

Heres a quick low down of BSC, one of America' slongest-running brokerage houses.

High =170.70 @ 1/18/07
6 Mos=138.41 @ 7/18/07 = -19%
12 Mos=72.39 @ 1/18/08 = -57% from top and -48% since 7/18
14 Mos=3.23 @ 3/17/08 = -98.1% from top and -95% since 1/18

Not only has BSC fallen 95+% from the top...it fell 95% from 2 monthes ago. It is falling almost 90% from Friday.

Not to rub salt in anyone's wounds, but screw the 20%-30% decline we are "supposed" ot have in a bear market. When one of the largest banks fails, and we can't admit we are AT LEAST in a recession.

Look at Gecko's cycle list...Some of us are just now accepting the FEAR...some are still in DENIAL.

We have a LONG way to go.

Berkshire

BSC is in addition to a few other prominent banks and lenders...CFC, ABK, MBIA, SLM, FRE, FNM, etc.

I wasn't singling BSC out, just know it is freshest on everyone's mind.

Jeff wish I had bought some short LEAPS back last FEB.

Berkshire

Funny...MarketWatch is explaining "Circuit Breaker Rules."

I'd love a 1350 point decline in $INDU. I think that would clench the deal.

Berkshire

Happy St Pattys's Day.

I am going to love today.

I hope eveyone has PUTS today

Drink some Green Beer and enjoy the ride

Dave,

I will be wearing green...And my account might just follow suit.

Berkshire

DOW to 10,700.....

10600 looks right on - then lower

From the Shadow Trader email this morning:

So how do we trade a market on pins and needles? Traders that are just starting out often have this illusion that all profitable traders are in the market 100% of the time and trade every single move in the market with an 80% accuracy rate. This couldn't be farther from the truth. The best traders have a well defined edge/system and only trade setups that satisfy their criteria. If that means there is nothing to do....then so be it. As we have been preaching over the past week, in difficult times the best way to play the market is to focus on relative strength and weakness. These stocks tend to ignore market volatility and hold their respective trends. In keeping with this theme not much has changed over the past few days. Natural gas stocks are threatening to break out again in numbers. DNR, APC, DVN, OXY, ECA, XTO, CHK, and XTO are the leading stocks within the group. Steel and iron stocks are poised to break out. NUE and STLD have already taken out their prior highs, while MTL, MT, SID, and AKS are playable on heavy volume breakouts. On the short side, a few semiconductor stocks are consolidating near the lows in a tight range such as LRCX, VSEA, ADI, and NETL.

As of this writing (11pm EST), US futures markets are down more than 2.5% in response to the Fed's emergency weekend discount rate cut. Yet another move to pump investor psyche that has gone awry. The volatility over the past few sessions has been incredible. This environment is toxic for investors and near impossible to navigate for short term traders. We will continue to lay low due to this Tuesday's Fed meeting and the holiday shortened week (market is closed Friday).

Jeff:
Thanks as always.

Go Big East!

Sam H

Raimo,

I definitely see 10,700 ...

Jeff,

Not much to add, my picks are from your lists. How do i check to see out of the ordinary option volumn like BSC on thursday? without you and the cast i would have never knowen. If things are gonna get worse maybe BSC was the first of a few moves like this to take place. I realise others have got killed like ABK, but just not quite overnight.

Thanks
The Bird Man

Top o' the morning everyone.

WOW. This might go down in financial history as the St. Patrick's Day massacre, Really, my little portfolio is just a drop in the bucket compared to the intensifying global financial panic out there. Most Americans have yet to understand all the economic and political impacts of this crisis.

I stayed mostly on the sidelines last week and go into the week with just a few small put positions - AMZN, COF, HON and USO (entered that one on Friday afternoon - ha - it won't make money today.)

Tricky to figure out new entry points now in the financials. LEH and MER seem to be the most obvious - but will these recover a bit later in the day after the plunge in the open? Or is it reasonable to just buy puts in LEH, period - any strike, any expiry, any price?

Jeff, thank you for the terrific watchlist. Among my favorite candidates this week: STR, AIZ, URBN and PRU if it breaks down - seems inevitable at this point.

I'm taking my family to California for 10 days on Wednesday - I have to attend two back-to-back conferences there - so I will be treading very lightly in the next couple of days.

VERY best wishes to everyone this week.

Raimo:
10,700 Dow looks very plausible to me as well.

Raimo,

We do have to break the 10,600 area first.

Maybe if the FED cuts rates by 5% so we will get paid on loans to the banks?

BIDU to $212 ?

Good luck everyone. Please be careful.

Looks like LEH is getting a haircut at the open. Bid is 26, closed around 39 on Friday.

Will the FOMC wait till tomorrow to cut the 100bp?

Hey berk, how's shorting the open working for ya?

Wow Jeff,

From what I've heard this morning it looks like I just might win that bet...

Berkshire

Nate,

It didn't.

By the time trade opened, nothing was where it was supposed to be. I canceled all orders and figure I will try not to screw up these profits.

Berkshire

This open sucks. I want more fear......

Yeah, I threw in a couple orders quick and nothing got filled. Now I'm trying to decide if the futures can break 1271-1272 or if they are going to reverse there.

Raimo,

I was looking for a entry, but a gap and hold is probably going to hold until the FED.

VIX 35 - Watch out to 40

Ya Raimo,

I wondered how you did it on Fri, but I also remember we opened positive.

With no new positions I am still lovin it.

Berkshire