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« "Volatile Market" Spotlight | Main | Short the Miners »

Industry Group Spotlight: Food

Yes, I know. Pretty lame.

However, I was thinking about creating my own ETF (FOO) of food stocks, which will easily double the performance of the market over the next 1-2 months. Don't believe me? Track them.

Here is my "shopping list...."

LONG

CQB, HRL, WWY, TSN, KFT, GIS, CAG, HNZ, MKC, DLM, FLO, K

SHORT

GMCR, WBD, ADM, BG, DF

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Reader Comments (42)

Berkshire,

I'm tempted to believe you about ESRX, but my problem is that little S/R / EE i drew just under 64. Blasted rules! =)

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:04AM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Jeff,

Great list! You might want to consider FDP on your buy list

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:05AM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

We now clearly need a FOO Fighters song to send off the day.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:08AM | Unregistered Commenterjym

Cameron,

Different group (crops) but you are right. Still a good looking chart.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:09AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

Jeff,

A little confused on ADM, do I eat what they produce?

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:09AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

TSRA - posted earlier - it was right under my nose. On the 5 yr chart (yes, Berk - had to go out that far) how about Apr $20 NP's $1.20 6% rtn for 21 days. Plus, huge option plays going on. Short interest < 1 day.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:10AM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Berk,

ADM - corn products... at least we buy corn syrup from them...

John

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:11AM | Unregistered CommenterLogan

Jym,

I'd give a second to that.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:11AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

John,

Thanks...reading closer...much closer, I see the connection.

Thanks.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:14AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Sean M,

Hey, Sean, based on an earlier conversation, I'm wondering if you are noticing longer-term diag support/resistance holding up better than horizontal s/r in this environment. The former is faring far better than the latter for me personally.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:14AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

What does that tell you Sledge?

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:17AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berk,

I guess there are no patterns or horiz lines holding up in this market for more than a few days. Worse than ever lately, it seems. What are you seeing? Is there only room for daytrading in this market? It's starting to seem that way. Holding positions overnight is killing me. All that BSC money is slowing eroding.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:23AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

ADM-

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is engaged in procuring, transporting, storing, processing, and merchandising agricultural commodities and products. The Company's operations are classified into three business segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, and Agricultural Services.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:25AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

Sledge,

The longer term a support or resistance level the better. I try to trade S/R levels that have at least 3 points of contact using closing prices but more points of contact make me happier. If you were to push me for an answer as to which I like better, I would have to say a long term diagonal S/R line. I have been trading more horizontal S/R lines recently.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:28AM | Unregistered CommenterSean M.

I read that too, Jeff, but then you said FDP was crops. I know FDP is more like BG, but "I" thought (there's my problem right?) that FDP was more appropriate for FOO than ADM.

I know it is your dream engine, so I won't complain. Just a little confused.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:28AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Sean, Berk,

It's like I've gone to a party at Mr. Market's house and accidentally dropped some cigar ash on his carpet. Now he's making me pick it up...with my anus.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:28AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Sledge/Berk

What does diagonal resistance/support holding up better than horizontal res/sup tell you? Now that you mention I notice that as well, but lack the brain cells from a 2 week stint in
Amsterdaam to determine it for myself.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:31AM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Time stamps are all outta whack today. My posts are all out of sequence versus others. I'm responding to people or asking questions, but my post will be ten spots back, so I'm sure they're being missed.

Step,

I think the sideways direction of this market, being stuck in a range, means that horizontal s/r is being broken over and over as the stocks trade over and under these lines. I'm starting to think that I need to learn to daytrade. I don't even know what a pivot point is. Dammit, this means more trips to the ol' bookstore.

Jeff, Westy, Raimo, F2T,

I know you guys like to daytrade. Have you had any better success in this environment versus October? Something you'd recommend I do?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:34AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Sledge,

It tells me that the markets are probably in some hidden pattern trying to rope in both bulls and bears. A nice fat triangle would fill the picture. Day-trading has been working very well for me...taking anything around 30% profit.

The fact that the LONG term support levels are being called upon automatically makes me think bearish. If a 10-year trendline has been broken, it is a little hard to be bullish (yet, I try).

I am not sure about the "overnight risk" everyone complains about. It's not like this market is swinging like it was 2 weeks ago. There was "overnight risk" then.

The fact that the $VIX is sitting comfortably at a level un-seen in over 5-years is another "bad" peice of news.

It tells me to be cuatious, very very cautious. Especially if we don't crack 12750.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:35AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

2nd post:

Time stamps are all outta whack today. My posts are all out of sequence versus others. I'm responding to people or asking questions, but my post will be ten spots back, so I'm sure they're being missed.

Step,

I think the sideways direction of this market, being stuck in a range, means that horizontal s/r is being broken over and over as the stocks trade over and under these lines. I'm starting to think that I need to learn to daytrade. I don't even know what a pivot point is. Dammit, this means more trips to the ol' bookstore.

Jeff, Westy, Raimo, F2T,

I know you guys like to daytrade. Have you had any better success in this environment versus October? Something you'd recommend I do?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:35AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Ouch Sledge,

Better hope that ember is out...

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:35AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Sledge, that is hilarious. While your down there can you pick up the quarter I dropped? Ahh, just keep it.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:35AM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Step,

Let me know next time your headed that way. :)

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:36AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

I'd like to give a shout out to all the cigarette smokers out there.

Thank. Parent company MO has just given me 50% in 2 days.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:38AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berk, I am moving to Eastern Europe towards the end of this year. Bring it. Well trade from around 4pm to 10pm and then drink absinthe.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:39AM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Sledge,

I'm in JEC right now and had a nice 20% gain at the close yesterday. Since JEC didn't even get close to my exit, I didn't think twice about taking gains. Now I'm down about 15%. It's frustrating to say the least.

Long: VIX volatility please
Short: Big Bad Ben Bernanke in the Dollarcopter

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:40AM | Unregistered CommenterJorge

Jorge,

Wow, you and me both, man. JEC was in the green, now in the red by about 12%.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:41AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Step-

Absinthe kinda makes one feel funny... but being in Amsterdam you're probably use to feeling funny...

JEC is making me feel funny but not in a good way...

liz

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:41AM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

Time stamps are all outta whack today. My posts are all out of sequence versus others. I'm responding to people or asking questions, but my post will be ten spots back, so I'm sure they're being missed.

Step,

I think the sideways direction of this market, being stuck in a range, means that horizontal s/r is being broken over and over as the stocks trade over and under these lines. I'm starting to think that I need to learn to daytrade. I don't even know what a pivot point is. Dammit, this means more trips to the ol' bookstore.

Jeff, Westy, Raimo, F2T,

I know you guys like to daytrade. Have you had any better success in this environment versus October? Something you'd recommend I do?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:43AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Clean Cups...wow, that's a first.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:45AM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

UCLA

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:47AM | Unregistered CommenterDMS425


GENZ is again breaking out of a rising wedge pattern at 73.50 with a target of 5 1/2 pts or 68. Sooner or later it surely will breakout. Very low vol here.

Jimco

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:49AM | Unregistered CommenterJimco

Liz,

What do you make of USO? I was up 280 per contract yesterday and now it take a little breather and the market makers decided this is enough to take half of my profits. Jerks.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:50AM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Does anyone see a cup pattern forming on amln? I'm not the best at picking out patterns and what all has to show up before the pattern materializes.

Wish my stock picking was as good as my madness picks. 8th place with a bullet.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:53AM | Unregistered Commenteroptionair

Sledge, I was not a day trader last year. This year. I'm just a fast trader. I feel like I sneak into a stock grab it & work on getting a fast profit. To day trade - it is really not me. This trades are all in my LLC accts.

JCP - got some Apr $37.50 NP for $2.10 5.6% rtn & $35s for 3.15%

Somewhat risky but long term, pretty strong bottom - all I'm doing is balancing out my NP's in my IRAs.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:59AM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

nice! what's your favorite out of those

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:09AM | Unregistered Commenterfoo!

Berk

I bought into ZMH this week and was wanting to get your opinion on this stk. bought the apr80call

John

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:11AM | Unregistered Commenterjohn

DV, ESI & STRA - the schools are getting hit hard today. What's going on?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:11AM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

John,

ZMH - I do not like ZMH with such small moves of recent. It is a great "selling option stock" for NPs or Bull/Puts. Right now, the MFC intermediate is making lower highs plus over the week-end your Theta with a snail pace price movement is going to hurt you.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:26AM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

I am not sure I am on board with kft yet. Are you looking at the sector? A P&F Chart looks like it wants to take it lower, and I don't see the Stoch or MACD supporting it either. I have a friend who knows somebody that was related to some people that told them that Kraft had 1.25 billion in unhedged inputs. Hopefully they took care of that on this last dip commodities took. Are you anticipating a breakout to the upside? It has been trading into a symmetrical triangle.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:31AM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Wade

NKE - weathering the retail storm & this is looking more like a hammer. Oher vitals MS - moving up which will dampen down turns, MFC short term & md term moving up. The only thing left is the intermediate. Still watching!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:38AM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

NFLX

Any buyers?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 11:29AM | Unregistered CommenterHarry

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