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Weekend Special

Posted on Friday, March 28, 2008 at 03:57PM by Registered CommenterOption Addict | Comments109 Comments

The new "Weekly Watchlist" will make it's way on the blog over the weekend. I know- I'm a helluva guy.

I am doing this because I am regrettably going to be away next week. I have decided to take a vacation.

However, I will be updating the blog so that the community can press on and keep conversations organized on a daily basis. I will probably re-run a few of my "greatest hits" and "greatest misses" during the week, which will offer a place to leave comments each day.

Have a great weekend,

The Option Addict

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Reader Comments (109)

Jeff- have a great well deserved week off. Those "Would you trade this?" are always popular.
Stan

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:10PM | Unregistered CommenterStan Lake

Jeff,

Have you considered having a couple of the more experienced traders on this site write their own blog entries from time to time (by invite/approval only)? It might take some of the stress off of you if you ever need it.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:11PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Jeff,

Have a great time...Thanks for ALL the WORK you do for US...

We really appreciate it.

We'll take care of the blog for ya while your gone... :)

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:15PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Vacation! Ooooh, I'm jealous! I haven't had a vacation since I started Investools 2 years ago. Will it be a vacation from trading for you?

Enjoyed the spotlight today. THANKS!!

Have a great time. Take pictures. Bring presents.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:23PM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl

Thanks ya'll...

Keep the market interesting while I am away.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:26PM | Unregistered CommenterOption Addict

I'll do my best Jeff...

All sorts of Astrological mumbo-jumbo and Theory talk (DOW and Elliott Wave)...We can even use our fib circles (or Spirals...thanks TOS) and how about a little Gann.

That should keep it interesting...right??

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:31PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Jeff

I am new to all of this..but thank you for caring and hanging in there.....the efforts you put forth reach out to many more who are just in this community...what happens here touches many familys as well.have safe and deserved time off....

Also..thanks Berk..for the education.

Eddie

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:32PM | Unregistered CommenterEdward65

Have a great vacation Jeff.
Much gratitude.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:36PM | Unregistered CommenterPeter V

Cameron,

I've considered it, but decided against it.

I have let people contribute experiences in the past, but when it comes to market opinions, trading strategy, or making predictions- I can't do that.

It dillutes the doctrine I teach (no offense).

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:36PM | Unregistered CommenterOption Addict

Jeff:
Thanks for all! Enjoy yourself!
Robert
CANI

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:54PM | Unregistered Commenterrobert

Doji Girl,

You mentioned that you were doing investools. Are you able to trade for a living from your education at investools and how much capital would one need to get started?

Mike T

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:54PM | Unregistered CommenterMike T

Stan Lake, I don’t know why I bothered to notice your attempt to mock me by entering a spread trade on MER that I specifically said to buy puts on. You are only pointing out your own ignorance of the market by buying and selling those wishy-washy positions and their watered down winnings. I won’t be bothered anymore by people that can’t get it through their thick skulls that if you want to take down an elephant you’re not going to do it with a BB gun. It’s dangerous to you and it annoys the elephant. If you don’t want to profit hugely, handsomely, why bother? You are walking around with your pockets full of change not realizing you’re leaving a trail of nickels and dimes because those holes in your pockets come from excess commissions and lost potential profits on every trade.
Honestly now, this is the last time I’ll try. I told you two days in a row the NDX would fall and it did for 50 points. I know you didn’t take the trade as I’ve seen you and everyone else skittering about looking at the next stock flavor of the minute. I swear, you’re all like a pack of over-caffeinated gerbils scampering around your keyboards spitting out ticker symbols. Why don’t you try picking an index, any index and study its every move until you learn how it breathes? You’ll begin to understand its nuances when you look at the 5 minute, 15 minute, 60 minute charts. So what if the weeks turn into months before you learn it? That time will pass anyway and better to pass it learning something useful than scattering more of your chump change around your next dozen loser iron-condor with-a-calendar-burning-at-both-ends-spread trades. You can make a good living just trading one product. After you learn that then diversify into a meaningful arena such as the Forex. Most of you seem to be Investool monkeys, they must have something to teach you. I certainly can’t. Stubborn monkey.
J. Cramer Option Klingon Extraordinaire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 04:58PM | Unregistered CommenterJ Cramer Option Klingon

JCOKE,

You may not take an elephant down with a BB gun, but you can with a mouse. I saw it on Mythbusters so it must be true.

For the record, I'm not an IT monkey. I can't afford it.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:09PM | Unregistered CommenterJorge

Jorge,

LMAO...mythbusters...I have a new rule. do not read blog while drinking...diet coke shot out of my nose when I read that.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:14PM | Unregistered CommenterJake

Jeff,

Enjoy your well deserved time off. Your hard work and dedication to the blog and all of us is VERY MUCH APPRECIATED.

THANK YOU!!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:24PM | Unregistered CommenterHarry

Klingy- nice to see you hard at work getting rid of all those pesky spread traders.

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/5579/klingonwarshipyt5.png

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:26PM | Unregistered CommenterStan Lake

Jodi,

Did you end up taking the CSH trade?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:28PM | Unregistered CommenterJake

Jeff,

No offense taken. I only brought it up because I've seen other blogs do it with some success. Though I do agree - allowing others to blog could easily affect the particular style/feel you've created here.

Keep up the great work and enjoy your much-deserved time off!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 05:55PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Jeff;

Have a great well-deserved vacation - recharge your batteries and come back with a vengeance!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:03PM | Unregistered Commentermountain joe

Jeff,
Hope you have a great and much deserved vacation. Thanks for all that you teach us.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:15PM | Unregistered CommenterGeorge

Berk, I think you've been asked this a bunch, but what is/are a/some good Elliot Wave book(s)


Anyone, what are some good books on trading psychology and how to overcome greed and fear?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:20PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Nate,

Hands-down, "Trading in the Zone" is an awesome psychology book.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:25PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Jeff,

Enjoy your time off. I myself just returned from a trading vacation(no trades for over a week). Felt great.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:25PM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

Nate,

Here is a great book on trading psychology.
"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas
ISBN: 0735201447

Hope this helps!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:30PM | Unregistered CommenterHarry

Nate,

http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Market-Behavior/dp/0932750435

Read it first. If you agree with what it says, then I can recomend some more. Some of it seems a little far out to most people, but...

I read it twice within a week and took a notebook full of notes...I also copied (and labeled) every picture, and drew my own wave counts following all the rules and guidelines.

I know I'm is a little copmulsive, but that's "my style"...

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:49PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berk, just got back, played a quick Friday afternoon 18, drank some beers, chomped on some appetizers & just had to take a quick look to see what was happening.

BIDU - with the ImpVol moving up to earnings & the Theta going for grub, just think of me on the other end of you buying BIDU PUTs. Buyers & Sellers! I'm filled with Apr 230s. This week-end, each and every share will lose $0.34/ day. Which means if you bought PUTs it needs to move that much more - add in the ImpVol moving up and it's like putting on an extra 25lbs to your max bench press wt.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 06:54PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Jeff,

Take me with you.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:01PM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

ImpVol - just re-read my post - what I meant, the ImpVol is way up, so I sold into higher than normal prem's. On the other side, buying into high prem's regardless of direction - it cost you more.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:07PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Klingon,

Your posts amuse and intrigue me. Keep up the war crys and rally the troops.

F2T,

25lbs IS my max bench press.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:07PM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Nate,

I really enjoyed the Jack Schwager Market Wizards books.

They are not technical manuals nor are they specifically psychology oriented, so they are fairly easy to read as long as you don't get caught up in trying to understand every detail about some of the more complex trades.

The traders talk about their successes and failures, including mistakes they've made, how they manage risk, how they've blown up accounts, etc.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:22PM | Unregistered CommenterOptionSniper

Jeff

Enjoy your vaction and GO LONG DAVIDSON!

Tom in SC

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:32PM | Unregistered CommenterTom in SC

Stan, LOVE the artwork!! Perfect response.

Klingy - Take your nasty attitude and shove it up yer ass. If you don't like what or how we trade here, then LEAVE! Nobody criticized the way you trade, so please don't criticize others. Why are you even here and reading all this if you have nothing but contempt?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:35PM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl

Mike T - That is my goal but until I can get consistant positive results, I'm still a realtor. Investools gives you the education and the tools you need to get started but it still takes a lot of hard work, studying and practice. I'm not there yet.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 07:59PM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl

Doji,
Thanks
Mike

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:05PM | Unregistered CommenterMike T

F2T,

Interesting...I didn't buy..yet, but here's my take.

As far as IV (on BIDU)...it seems to be in a triangle. Front month IV is lower than 2nd month. $VIX is sitting a 2 solid weekly support levels, still coiling (i.e. fear is STILL increasing by 15% every 40ish (average) days (30 this time)). Look at your MA's ($VIX) too. 200MA has been solid support, so has 100MA, and $VIX is sandwiched (inside a triangle) between the 50 (topside) and 100 (bottom), which one usually gives? And, besides the current triangle, we are still closed higher than we have been in 5 yrs, and the IV on $VIX is relatively low... I like the odds of a $VIX bounce.

As far as BIDU, what makes YOU bullish? It's below all of it's MAs. In fact it bounced off of the 50MA (which is also the 30EMA, and 61.8% fib level from 3/12 to 3/20). The 50MA is the high, the 30EMA and 61.8% fib (these levels are $.20 apart, 249.79 and 249.99, I like that) is about $2 above the close.

As far as my side, it has decreasing volume, and a spike that has been pretty consistant with a high (lately). Oscillators are starting to roll over, and one could argue this is a higher retest of the most recent support (daily line). Or a bounce off of the bearish trendline (top down, daily line), or even a triangle retest (yes, I could argue that...). I see a nice target of $175. Not by this expiration, but shouldn't be too far off. Unless we break some upper resistance, of course.

Whew...

But, good luck my friend.

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:22PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

JCOK,

There is nothing extraordinary about you so I left the E off. I am glad you said this is your "last try". I am curious about your reference to gerbils. Pehaps a double bottom has a completely different meaning to you and Mr. Gere.

We all respect different trading styles even if they don't reflect our own. What we do not respect is personal attacks on anyone in this group. With the exception of you, we are all adults here. If this blog does not make you happy or make you money, why are you here? Anonymity affords you the courage to attack but I will always respect a Stan Lake, a Raimo, a Chris, a laney, etc. and anyone who puts their actual name out there and backs it up with their email to someone like you who likely is a shit disturber on many blogs. The sad thing is, I think you have provided some good insights, you just do it in a way that convinces me that your personality is your best form of birth control. Goodbye JCOK and may I say that name you have chosen for yourself suits you well.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:27PM | Unregistered CommenterSean M.

Berk,

BIDU, sitting on the 10 dma, busted thru the 20 today. The MS is slowly moving up this week the MFC intermediate is making higher highs, STO & MAC green arrows, the D+/D- are kissing as the D+ wants to move bullish (for me, to many osc but what the heck), lastly, BIDU is over in China and I believe that the little ole mega country of 1.3 billion is just learning the internet.

So can it sink? The titanic did but right now & for the next 21 days (of course earnings soon, OH Earnigs?), this company typically moves up and more plus before and after earnings, which means, there is normally an expectation of a bullish move.

Berk, it’s Friday night, time to relax, I’ll be counting BIDU’s jumping fences all night long (Oh! Jumping is a bullish move) – smile, go find a date!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:42PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

F2T,

Funny. From what I can tell, your the old man...I'm still young, don't worry about me.

I can see your earnings trade as potential...I missed the little icon over in the top of my chart...

Your right about the DMI, the last time + and - had this action (cross over) was one day from the top, and on a fairly similar pattern.

I can't comment on my sleep patterns (or lack there of). :)

Berkshire

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:51PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Sean,

Easy, the Kligon show was cancelled. You know what happens to tired old actors? They revert to drugs and hallucinate their past. Most often they are found on the inner city park benches but some manage to roam. Let him have his day, he is living inside 'its self'. I suspect at one time, there was greatness - it's a shame but part of life!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:55PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Berk,

You should be the bull running down the hill! Me, I'm an old man - one by one!

You young studs!

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 08:56PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Berk,

You missed the icon? Quick story & true -- I knew a bunch of SF cops while living in the Bay Area. Anyway, they use to walk by this certain house (which housed beautiful cross dressers). Anyway, this young rookie was with them one night & this beautiful women called over this young stud, in which she (he) placed a big one on him! The story, 'don't miss the icon!"

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:02PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Berkshire,

I'm not that compulsive, but I do like to know how everything works, even if it turns out to be something I never use.

Option S,

I could write a book on blowing up accounts.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:33PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Sean/F2T/Doji

I am a fan of the Kling. You cant tell me you have read his posts and havent at least smiled. In my opinion, he is at least laying it out there and in a humorous way. I read his posts like it is Bill Murray character as opposed to the drill Sergant from Full Metal Jacket. At the very least, he was correct in his forecast and ill take any anybody who can make a valid arguement on a forescast. Diffrn't Strokes fer Diffrn't Folks I suppose:)

p.s. I like all 3 of you better of course:)
p.s.s. Sean, I cant believe you left off a Berk from your list of Who's Who amoung Option Addicts! Aside from that party foul that post could have been one of the most humorous on this site to date.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 09:54PM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Seriously, is anybody going to the Basic Options refresher course in Orlando on the 16th-17th of April?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:01PM | Unregistered Commenterstepinvest

Jeff

Enjoy your time off. I'm sure we'll all be here waiting for you to impart your guidance and wisdom upon your return. Thanks for all you do.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:02PM | Unregistered CommenterOld_lefty

stepinvest,

You are right! But, can't we just call him Klinger the character from Mash! He was a goof ball! OK! Slap me, I'll be nice.

So, welcome to Jeff's neighborhood, Sergeant Maxwell Q. Klinger. Are you still working on your Section 8 psychiatric discharge from the galactic army?

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:15PM | Unregistered CommenterFree2Trade

Stan-

You draw very well!

liz

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:31PM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

JCOCK-

I think the name fits better. Seriously dude... chill out! I think you're kinda funny, but... chill... it's Friday.

To me one of the amazing things about trading is that 50 different people can look at the same chart and each of them can see something different in that chart and all of them have the potential to make money their way, their own style of trading, they're own rules. How cool is that?

Anyway, that's all I've got to say.

liz

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:37PM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

Jeff-

I hope you have a great time off. Taking a vacation should never be "regrettably". Can't wait to listen to your piece on volatility.

And thanks for being a great mentor.

liz

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 10:42PM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

d'Klingon's diatribes are extraordinarily entertaining to me.... I actually like the way she writes... the message is direct and to the point.

Fri, March 28, 2008 at 11:08PM | Unregistered CommenterPopeious

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