Good Trade, Early Exit
Monday, March 3, 2008 at 02:36PM Ok. So the first exit write up wasn't good enough. Go figure.
Readers want to know how to exit a trade, that has gone in your favor before reaching a price target.
In other words, "How Do You (me) Take Profits."
Answer: "With precision."
Below is a recent trade I have been in and acknowledging for the month of February.

CLF: The pattern was an astonishing $30 points wide and had a 3 month time target.
However, since I am not into "options investing" I started off with buying Feb 110 calls on the day of the confirmation (Feb 8th).
The problem is that I turned this into 2 trades. The Feb 110 calls that I paid $2.30 for on 2/8 were closed out prior to expiration day (Feb 15th) for $6.40. I then turned around and bought March 130's the following Monday (flag breakout) for $5.10. This was an OTM option, and as such I positioned myself for a 100% loss of premium.
Before you get too distracted, the point here is exits. Try to envision one fluid trade.
I selected the March 130's because my target price was $135 and I calculated a $10-12 option premium had the stock gotten there in 2 weeks (my prediction).
Since prices were very high off my original entry point, I looked for the easiest way to determine where to take profits, or lock in profits. Result: I drew a trendline.
The line drawn in blue illustrates a short term trendline that caught the lows of nearly all price movements while I was in the trade. This trendline was violated on the 29th, and I decidedly closed out my position at the close of trading for $2.20 (55% loss).
As you can see, prices hadn't hit my target price...but had clearly given me a sign of weakness. Enough to where I decided to close out the trade.
Conclusion: Had I initially selected a March option, this might have been a better example to follow. The Feb option was a winner, but the March trade was tougher to manage. The trader that bought March paper likely outperformed me on this one.







Reader Comments (138)
Said VA Beach Girl:
>Cam,
>
>Have you ever looked at what the average yearly return is historically on
>the S&P?
Sure. I'm not quite there yet ;-) For me it's learning to trade bigger and more often... at least while we were in the bull market and I was still really green. Now I trade smaller and more often, and it's been more difficult for me (and just about everyone else) to make consistent monthly returns - or at least be consistently profitable month to month.
All in due time.
Kohler you are in fine form today sir.
Thanks Jeff
Larrz
Sean M,
"Relax" is also relative... what is relaxing to me is too much work for others. Hobbies: I mtn bike and ski often (I am an adrenaline junkie this is why the “manly” hobbies don’t appeal to me…). I hang and have fun with my wife, children and dogs. We travel together. I read myself to sleep. I do have some friends… Work: My day job is more than full time and my trading job is wish were the same.
Life is good! And so it “the dream”.
Cheers!
John
Jeff,
Thanks again for the timely watch list. Some of your picks move so far and so fast it's a challenge to decide when/if to jump in. (A nice problem for you, a challenge for those of us a tad more conservative.) I'm getting better at catching the retests. ;)
My alerts were firing off so fast this morning I couldn't keep up....LOL
Thanks again and congrats on your continued success in this trading environment!
Linda
"And I didn't have to use my A.K. Today was a good day."
John,
I see you have prepared. I was just worried about anyone that retires without planning. I see you have.
Jeff,
Great posts all day !!!!
Thanks for the bad trade exit, as I need to pound that one into my head. Trust me, as of today no more excessive losses. Thanks again, bro.
Cameron,
My question was only to draw the percentages into perspective between what many use as a benchmark versus the power of options.
Make great entries and exits and the money will come.
great teaching example. thank you so much.
Jeff,
The psychological aspect of my trading is growing by leaps and bounds with these posts. Thanks.
Jeff-
You're the goods.
Today I felt like a kid in a candy store. The posts were AWESOME. Very helpful. Thanks a bunch!
Jeff,
Thank you very much for all these live examples. It is a great learning experience. What you are illustrating is priceless. Only wish I will be in a position to return(do something) you for all of this wisdom.
Thank you once again.
Jaldiwin
I love when Cramer recommends the stocks Jeff has been in for weeks. We OA's get a nice boost.
TRMB - Jeff, do you like this setup as a sym triangle? Do the gaps in the price change the pattern any? Would you measure this potential move from $32-$24 (widest part of triangle) or $31-$26 move?
Either way, looks like a healthy move for a $28 stock ($5-$8 move)!
P.S. I 2nd VA Beach Girls comment on the psychology of the trade. That is helping the most & calming the anxiety. Mucho thanks.
Thanks for the guidance. You are the man.
Nice posts today Jeff. You are sharing a trading style that is much clearer than a year ago. Not all of us have an IQ of 150. This blind squirrel appreciates your effort.
Great blog, long time visitor first time poster. I mostly daytrade but have been following your blog and other swing trading blogs for a while. I was interesting in knowing more about your entries. Do you only enter near the close once you have confirmed price is going to close above the breakout point? For the CLF trade was the entry on the break of 105 or the close near 108? Thanks
Bubs
Anyone,
What is a good stock/ETF used to directly track the price of oil, similar to the way GLD tracks Gold prices?
Thanks
Jeff,
These real life examples teach more that you can imagine. It's hard to find words to describe the enlightenment that these last few examples have given. Thanks for all your giving. You deserve 100-fold. Thanks, Julie
Berk for the record
MLM did hit 105 easy
thanks for calling my attention to the old fishing J hook last week when it was 112+
betred
Solmeyer,
Check out
DIG
DUG and
USO
Mike,
Happy to help. Glad it is working.
Berkshire
Jeff,
Just noticed the new links.
Nicely done.
Berkshire
Hi Jeff,
Long time ago I haven't visit your blog. Great topics, and good explanation. Congratulations.
Awesome posts lately! Maybe the market has been just easier to trade these past few days, but I'm starting to make a few bucks again after spinning my wheels for much of February.
I have really been trying to make my entries more precise, and the recent postings and comments have helped more than words can say.
Have you all noticed that USO has become optionable? I've been long the ETF since the dip earlier this year. Thinking of taking some profits, and not sure how I would play USO for options at this stage.
Jeff, you said the other day that it's better to avoid options related to gold. Does the same hold true for oil? Does the price of gold just lumber along too gradually to make the options worthwhile? For the past few days, especially, the logic of your high alpha option buying strategy really has been clear.
Traded CPHD profitably both ways in the past couple of weeks, by the way. Thank you again.
Jeff,
Did you jump into LM today, or was it past your entry point? Will you wait for a re-test of the $68 level?
Jeff: your 3 posts on price planning are fantastic - further to recent correspondence we've exchanged these 'real' examples, although perhaps obvious to you, realy help clear the fog for me. Again, many many thanks.
PS - the down days of Feb had a really good end - I'm hoping the lessons learnt, plus your enormous contribution will see me improve my skills this month.
Jeff-
Just wanted to say thanks again for the great weekly watch list! Taking some excellent profits this week.
Kyle
Thanks for this Jeff, these examples are incredibly instructive.
Thanks for letting us into the mind of the Master...learnt so much
Sam
Thanks Jeff
One question: If you still had more time in your option and this senario repeated
is it best to exit when breaks the trendline like you did or keep the original target as long as it doesn't break support of 120ish?
thanks
Anyone know the ticker to follow platinum
Thanks in advance
Sue,
Depending on the size of the position, and entry. Had Jeff still been in his original contract, he MAY have allowed for a larger support bounce. However...at least the immediate trend has been broken, and a good opportunity to reduce your posistion. It has just told you it doesn't plan on advancing at the same rate that it originally was.
Point is. If Jeff had picked up March contract on the first entry, he might have had more risk tolerance. From the second entry, there is very little choice in what to do.
Looks like 117-118 could be a support area.
Berkshire
Hi Jeff:
Like WannaBee I have some difficulty in deciding when to enter.
I watched your video - made my entry plan - and then waited for the day to open.
Conventional wisdom on this board and other places says wait until the end of day then enter or exit.
e.g ESRX - your video said enter if it closes above $61 then short. OK, it did and I bought towards the end of the day. We'll see what develops.
Also targeted WBD but pretty much let it alone as it went up/down through the day.
Planned on entering CPHD if it closed below $27.50 or so and boy did it do that. I did not buy assuming (rightly or wrongly) that most of the movement had been captured.
It's great to see all the gains you listed in your previous posting and I look at my own trading and keep trying to improve my plan.
THX for all you do
Bob
Jeff,
Your poll asking for what will make better traders was answered with this incredible post. A firsthand look at how a professional conducts business will help me improve faster than anything I can think of.
Thanks for taking the time to write this post and for giving us a look at your personal activity.
Thanks Berkshire
Appreciate it
Berkshire,
Looking at pre-market on TSL it appears they've released some good numbers. Sorry to hear about those puts (did you actually take some down?). I'm crossing my fingers that LDK doesn't follow this one.
Cameron,
Actually, my order never filled yesterday.
But I will more than likely be picking them up around the open.
Hope it doesn't bump LDK too bad.
FSLR didn't really appear to be affected.
Berkshire
Jeff-
Once again, you're on a roll (actually, I don't know when you ever stop!). I love all the great pieces you've been writing lately. Thanks.
liz
Jodi said he was 29...It seems he is under 30.
Berkshire
Camereon,
I am looking to get into TSL puts around 37 if you are interested.
Berkshire
How old is Jeff? Anyone knows? Just curious..
Mosan
Anyone like SNP gapping out of a sideways channel.
I picked up some PTR yesterday in a similar position, and am being treated like royalty.
SNP is easy to $80. Just a thought.
Berkshire
Berkshire,
Didn't fill? How far out did you place your order? I've been playing with placing mine at the ask and just letting it fill. Volatility has been high enough that I sometimes get some relatively (what I thought) unrealistic fill prices at bid plus 5 on a 15cent spread.
...just curious.
I almomst always buy at or below the MARK. I put mine in a .30 yesterday, and the mark was .325.
On such cheap options the .025 makes a big difference in percentage gains.
I also noticed I didn't like my original option at the price it wanted for it.
I am picky.
Berkshire
SOHU break down finally.. Not a big move but its a hope for me :)
Berk, any comment?
Mosan
Mosan,
Judging by the way GOOG, BIDU, and even SINA moved yesterday, we should have the start of a decent move.
Hope you are doing well, my friend.
Berkshire
Berkshire, you amaze me. I have a lot to learn from you (e.g. puts at $37).
I'm going to the gym. I'll be back in an hour and a half and then see how things are going. :)
Just do me a favor and beat ESRX down for me.
Berk,
Good pick. I'm holding 10 positions right now, is this too many? How many positions do you guys usually have on your portfolio?
Mosan