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Greatness

I don't normally like to post articles that are as lengthy as this one here, but when the quality is there I will make an exception. There are a few sports references and examples (which might not interest all of you), but overall I thought this was a great article. If you have the time run through this and give it some thought.


What It Takes to Be Great

 

Fortune on CNNMoney.com
By Geoffrey Colvin

Research now shows that the lack of natural talent is irrelevant to great success. The secret? Painful and demanding practice and hard work What makes Tiger Woods great? What made Berkshire Hathaway (Charts) Chairman Warren Buffett the world's premier investor? We think we know: Each was a natural who came into the world with a gift for doing exactly what he ended up doing. As Buffett told Fortune not long ago, he was "wired at birth to allocate capital." It's a one-in-a-million thing. You've got it - or you don't.

Well, folks, it's not so simple. For one thing, you do not possess a natural gift for a certain job, because targeted natural gifts don't exist. (Sorry, Warren.) You are not a born CEO or investor or chess grandmaster. You will achieve greatness only through an enormous amount of hard work over many years. And not just any hard work, but work of a particular type that's demanding and painful.

Buffett, for instance, is famed for his discipline and the hours he spends studying financial statements of potential investment targets. The good news is that your lack of a natural gift is irrelevant - talent has little or nothing to do with greatness. You can make yourself into any number of things, and you can even make yourself great.

Scientific experts are producing remarkably consistent findings across a wide array of fields. Understand that talent doesn't mean intelligence, motivation or personality traits. It's an innate ability to do some specific activity especially well. British-based researchers Michael J. Howe, Jane W. Davidson and John A. Sluboda conclude in an extensive study, "The evidence we have surveyed ... does not support the [notion that] excelling is a consequence of possessing innate gifts."

To see how the researchers could reach such a conclusion, consider the problem they were trying to solve. In virtually every field of endeavor, most people learn quickly at first, then more slowly and then stop developing completely. Yet a few do improve for years and even decades, and go on to greatness.

The irresistible question - the "fundamental challenge" for researchers in this field, says the most prominent of them, professor K. Anders Ericsson of Florida State University - is, Why? How are certain people able to go on improving? The answers begin with consistent observations about great performers in many fields.

Scientists worldwide have conducted scores of studies since the 1993 publication of a landmark paper by Ericsson and two colleagues, many focusing on sports, music and chess, in which performance is relatively easy to measure and plot over time. But plenty of additional studies have also examined other fields, including business.

No substitute for hard work

The first major conclusion is that nobody is great without work. It's nice to believe that if you find the field where you're naturally gifted, you'll be great from day one, but it doesn't happen. There's no evidence of high-level performance without experience or practice.

Reinforcing that no-free-lunch finding is vast evidence that even the most accomplished people need around ten years of hard work before becoming world-class, a pattern so well established researchers call it the ten-year rule.

What about Bobby Fischer, who became a chess grandmaster at 16? Turns out the rule holds: He'd had nine years of intensive study. And as John Horn of the University of Southern California and Hiromi Masunaga of California State University observe, "The ten-year rule represents a very rough estimate, and most researchers regard it as a minimum, not an average." In many fields (music, literature) elite performers need 20 or 30 years' experience before hitting their zenith.

So greatness isn't handed to anyone; it requires a lot of hard work. Yet that isn't enough, since many people work hard for decades without approaching greatness or even getting significantly better. What's missing?

Practice makes perfect

The best people in any field are those who devote the most hours to what the researchers call "deliberate practice." It's activity that's explicitly intended to improve performance, that reaches for objectives just beyond one's level of competence, provides feedback on results and involves high levels of repetition.

For example: Simply hitting a bucket of balls is not deliberate practice, which is why most golfers don't get better. Hitting an eight-iron 300 times with a goal of leaving the ball within 20 feet of the pin 80 percent of the time, continually observing results and making appropriate adjustments, and doing that for hours every day - that's deliberate practice.

Consistency is crucial. As Ericsson notes, "Elite performers in many diverse domains have been found to practice, on the average, roughly the same amount every day, including weekends."

Evidence crosses a remarkable range of fields. In a study of 20-year-old violinists by Ericsson and colleagues, the best group (judged by conservatory teachers) averaged 10,000 hours of deliberate practice over their lives; the next-best averaged 7,500 hours; and the next, 5,000. It's the same story in surgery, insurance sales, and virtually every sport. More deliberate practice equals better performance. Tons of it equals great performance.

Not all researchers are totally onboard with the myth-of-talent hypothesis, though their objections go to its edges rather than its center. For one thing, there are the intangibles. Two athletes might work equally hard, but what explains the ability of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to perform at a higher level in the last two minutes of a game?

Researchers also note, for example, child prodigies who could speak, read or play music at an unusually early age. But on investigation those cases generally include highly involved parents. And many prodigies do not go on to greatness in their early field, while great performers include many who showed no special early aptitude.

Certainly some important traits are partly inherited, such as physical size and particular measures of intelligence, but those influence what a person doesn't do more than what he does; a five-footer will never be an NFL lineman, and a seven-footer will never be an Olympic gymnast. Even those restrictions are less severe than you'd expect: Ericsson notes, "Some international chess masters have IQs in the 90s." The more research that's done, the more solid the deliberate-practice model becomes.

Real-world examples

All this scholarly research is simply evidence for what great performers have been showing us for years. To take a handful of examples: Winston Churchill, one of the 20th century's greatest orators, practiced his speeches compulsively. Vladimir Horowitz supposedly said, "If I don't practice for a day, I know it. If I don't practice for two days, my wife knows it. If I don't practice for three days, the world knows it." He was certainly a demon practicer, but the same quote has been attributed to world-class musicians like Ignace Paderewski and Luciano Pavarotti.

Many great athletes are legendary for the brutal discipline of their practice routines. In basketball, Michael Jordan practiced intensely beyond the already punishing team practices. (Had Jordan possessed some mammoth natural gift specifically for basketball, it seems unlikely he'd have been cut from his high school team.)

In football, all-time-great receiver Jerry Rice - passed up by 15 teams because they considered him too slow - practiced so hard that other players would get sick trying to keep up.

Tiger Woods is a textbook example of what the research shows. Because his father introduced him to golf at an extremely early age - 18 months - and encouraged him to practice intensively, Woods had racked up at least 15 years of practice by the time he became the youngest-ever winner of the U.S. Amateur Championship, at age 18. Also in line with the findings, he has never stopped trying to improve, devoting many hours a day to conditioning and practice, even remaking his swing twice because that's what it took to get even better.

The business side

The evidence, scientific as well as anecdotal, seems overwhelmingly in favor of deliberate practice as the source of great performance. Just one problem: How do you practice business? Many elements of business, in fact, are directly practicable. Presenting, negotiating, delivering evaluations, deciphering financial statements - you can practice them all.

Still, they aren't the essence of great managerial performance. That requires making judgments and decisions with imperfect information in an uncertain environment, interacting with people, seeking information - can you practice those things too? You can, though not in the way you would practice a Chopin etude.

Instead, it's all about how you do what you're already doing - you create the practice in your work, which requires a few critical changes. The first is going at any task with a new goal: Instead of merely trying to get it done, you aim to get better at it.

Report writing involves finding information, analyzing it and presenting it - each an improvable skill. Chairing a board meeting requires understanding the company's strategy in the deepest way, forming a coherent view of coming market changes and setting a tone for the discussion. Anything that anyone does at work, from the most basic task to the most exalted, is an improvable skill.

Adopting a new mindset

Armed with that mindset, people go at a job in a new way. Research shows they process information more deeply and retain it longer. They want more information on what they're doing and seek other perspectives. They adopt a longer-term point of view. In the activity itself, the mindset persists. You aren't just doing the job, you're explicitly trying to get better at it in the larger sense.

Again, research shows that this difference in mental approach is vital. For example, when amateur singers take a singing lesson, they experience it as fun, a release of tension. But for professional singers, it's the opposite: They increase their concentration and focus on improving their performance during the lesson. Same activity, different mindset.

Feedback is crucial, and getting it should be no problem in business. Yet most people don't seek it; they just wait for it, half hoping it won't come. Without it, as Goldman Sachs leadership-development chief Steve Kerr says, "it's as if you're bowling through a curtain that comes down to knee level. If you don't know how successful you are, two things happen: One, you don't get any better, and two, you stop caring." In some companies, like General Electric, frequent feedback is part of the culture. If you aren't lucky enough to get that, seek it out.

Be the ball

Through the whole process, one of your goals is to build what the researchers call "mental models of your business" - pictures of how the elements fit together and influence one another. The more you work on it, the larger your mental models will become and the better your performance will grow.

Andy Grove could keep a model of a whole world-changing technology industry in his head and adapt Intel (Charts) as needed. Bill Gates, Microsoft's (Charts) founder, had the same knack: He could see at the dawn of the PC that his goal of a computer on every desk was realistic and would create an unimaginably large market. John D. Rockefeller, too, saw ahead when the world-changing new industry was oil. Napoleon was perhaps the greatest ever. He could not only hold all the elements of a vast battle in his mind but, more important, could also respond quickly when they shifted in unexpected ways.

That's a lot to focus on for the benefits of deliberate practice - and worthless without one more requirement: Do it regularly, not sporadically.

Why?

For most people, work is hard enough without pushing even harder. Those extra steps are so difficult and painful they almost never get done. That's the way it must be. If great performance were easy, it wouldn't be rare. Which leads to possibly the deepest question about greatness. While experts understand an enormous amount about the behavior that produces great performance, they understand very little about where that behavior comes from.

The authors of one study conclude, "We still do not know which factors encourage individuals to engage in deliberate practice." Or as University of Michigan business school professor Noel Tichy puts it after 30 years of working with managers, "Some people are much more motivated than others, and that's the existential question I cannot answer - why."

The critical reality is that we are not hostage to some naturally granted level of talent. We can make ourselves what we will. Strangely, that idea is not popular. People hate abandoning the notion that they would coast to fame and riches if they found their talent. But that view is tragically constraining, because when they hit life's inevitable bumps in the road, they conclude that they just aren't gifted and give up.

Maybe we can't expect most people to achieve greatness. It's just too demanding. But the striking, liberating news is that greatness isn't reserved for a preordained few. It is available to you and to everyone.

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Reader Comments (252)

Jeff,

WHERE IS ARTY????

Miss u man....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:28AM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Jeff,

I'll read ANY article with a picture of Tom Brady in it.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:32AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl

Berk,

dont want the rudder.

bad enough Jodi keeps me on as sheriff....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:33AM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Raimo,

I'll take it back, but I don't want to get yelled at by F2T that I made everyone sick right before the weekend.

I'm shooting for 12700. But the waters are a little choppy.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:39AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

geckoJB,

Thanks for the heads up on STLD. Took it yesterday at the close. :-)

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:40AM | Unregistered Commentershmikey

12700 would put a smile on my face...but we will see, here comes 2:30.....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:42AM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Raimo,

The rudder is slipping, care to give me some help?

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:50AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berk,

Check your gmail.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:51AM | Unregistered CommenterDMS425

Back to you Dave...

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:59AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Did anyone notice that all the Clean Cups are being posted Saturday March 29.

Jeff is vacationing in a Time Machine!!!!!

Very cool.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 11:59AM | Unregistered CommenterChris and Catherine

Berg,

get a better grip buddy.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:01PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

The volume on the DIA's has been decreasing over the last few days...what is this telling us??

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:02PM | Unregistered CommenterDan B

Raimo,

I am trying. I told you choppy waters. I'm gonna need some help, this is a big ship.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:05PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Dan...

I was waiting to later before I re-mentioned this.

Any time the $INDU post volume under 150mil, we can expect a reversal. I said on Wed, that we would be on track to see that this week. We are only at 131mil right now, and really anything under 175mil should do it.

We'll see.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:07PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Maybe it was mentioned before and since I'm not all here I missed it, but doesn't the Dow show signs of a 1,000 point symmetrical triangle forming starting about mid-January? If that's the case, wouldn't we then be rangebound until it decisively breaks sometime in June/July?

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:09PM | Unregistered CommenterJorge

Jorge,

There could be a triangle. Raimo thinks there is. There is a little too much space in it for me to like it. You could say a triangle is forming off the 2/27 high, but we don't have enough touches yet, and we should be headed down to the 11900 level if that were the case.

Raimo,

Are you gonna help me with the rudder, or is F2T gonna be pissed?

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:16PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Jorge,

You could also say a triangle was forming over the price action of the past 2-3 days. If that is the case, again, down should be the next direction. Though this triangle should break up.

(IF it is a triangle)

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:18PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berk,

Volume decreasing is shows signs of a trend "puttering out"...the trend is currently up, which would mean a potential reversal. I will still look for confirmation, but I'm with ya!!

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:21PM | Unregistered CommenterDan B

nice steering berk! keep it up

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:36PM | Unregistered Commentershmikey

Berk,

there is nothing to do. I put it on auto pilot. Meet me in the wheelhouse for a yuengling.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:40PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Raimo,

Got in this morning on DIA @ 125.31 in 127 calls. BUT I got out at $125.91. How did you manage to stay in for so much more upside? What were you looking at? I had $125.90 as resistance, so I got out. Would you mind posting your chart of what you were looking at? I want to get better at this daytrading. I see why you like the Diamonds, by the way. The spreads are so much better than stock spreads. Lesson learned.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:41PM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Berk,

Interested in revisiting our $VIX debate at the end of the day? Remember the ominous H&S 60d/60m chart I pointed out, which confirmed in a big way? It didn't even have the strength to retest the old neckline.

Today, it seems it could confirm a break in the ascending triangle on 1 yr chart. The tide seems to be shifting...we will break 12750 next week.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:43PM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

ATI - Breakout of asecending triangle + break of downtrend line on very heavy volume. What a turn around for this stock. That signals a lot of strength & not just short covering.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:47PM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

APA, XTO, DVN (Oil & Gas Industry) - These bull flags mentioned a few days ago seem to be right on course for Profit City.

$OIX & XLE are both breaking out of their triangles today. Should charge up the other oil/energy sector stocks.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:50PM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

http://screencast.com/t/I47mQHDOXX

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:50PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

This article is so true. I'm a huge believer that we make our own destiny and that you have to work constantly work hard in order to achieve the level of success that you desire. All too often people make excuses for why they aren't successful- I hear it constantly from my friends, my mom, my siblings. And it's always because of something else, some excuse. It's never because they flat didn't work hard enough.

Anyway, there's a book out by Napolean Hill called Think and Grow Rich. Excellent book for anyone who hasn't read it yet.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:53PM | Unregistered CommenterSpartaChris

Shouldn't the vix start creeping up a little here since it's a friday and the MMs will start widening the spreads so they don't lose the time value over the weekend?

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:58PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

VIX

Look at my chart....it did bounce...

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 12:59PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Raimo,

Thanks for the chart, man. Are you holding today's DIA calls into Monday for that 12,750 pop? I am looking at going in here again for the move next week.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:03PM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer!

Nate.

Lets leave the vix below the 200ma...

then break lower next week.....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:03PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

If you're talking to me, I mean just enough to get it above my trendline for the day, which is slightly below the 200dma

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:04PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Raimo,

What was your entry signal on the DIA call purchases in the green circles?

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:07PM | Unregistered CommenterGumbo YaYa

Rats, TOS just locked up for me except for prophet charts

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:15PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Seems like all the blogging is on the general direction of the market these days.

I'm outta here.

Good weekend all.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:25PM | Unregistered CommenterChris and Catherine

Great Post Jeff (but long). 10 years - I hope I still have time before my mind doesn't work anymore. I'll just have to work that much harder.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:27PM | Unregistered CommenterDeb H

Flat to up.....NOT a bad day considering the worst Jobs report in how long???

The bears are not gone, but the bulls are here too....and the battle is on....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:27PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Dow, back down below resisitance. Line tops Feb 1, 27, Apr 1, and now? Ramio what do you think of this? It makes me uncomfortable. Picking up some puts for balance.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:28PM | Unregistered CommenterDMS425

Dave,

That has pretty much been my number too. And he has ignored it's relevance. Maybe he will respond better to you.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:33PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

DMS245..

I posted my DOW chart....I dont beleive the resistance, I do believe the higher highs and higher lows, and with todays BAD numbers, we should have tanked. We did not, we are flat on the day (down 40 points or so to me is flat these days). I expect a down turn next week, a higher low, and then a run up.

We haev had three big up days since March, plus two healthy days in a row, all of which were taken away by big down days...except for this last one on 4/1.

Sure, we can tank and breakout to the bottom as well, and I'll be left eating crow...but for now, I'll stick with what I see over the last month, an upward trend. Next weeks earnings I think will push us one way or another.

Time will tell.....

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:42PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

OA's,

Just had my best week in my short three month trading career. Shout out's to Jeff, Raimo, Berk, and all the other OA's that have helped me to a 33% gain in the account this week. Sure is a good feeling after a lonnnnnnng stretch of losing. My account had broken out of a descending triangle with a price target of $0, but now much healthier.

P.S. I can only say this about two or three times a year, but...GO ROYALS!

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:51PM | Unregistered CommenterCole

I'm thinking we start pulling out of this bear market.

We hit rock bottom in January, couldn't get back to those levels in March, and now we're in a short term up-trend. With Tuesday's volume on DIA and the lower volume since (consolidation), I don't see why we couldn't head higher from here. On the other hand, I can also see the resistance at 127 being pretty strong. Either way I think a steady up trend is more believable than the dramatic swings we've been seeing all year.

Monday may tell.

My two cents, take it with a grain of salt!

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:51PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Cole,

Congrats man...Sometimes we get so involved in the market, we forget what it is about.

Glad to hear you are rocking it.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:56PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

If Ag run is real then SEED and COIN will run up with the momo money. Keep eye on coin as it has another Asc Triangle like it did in Jan, not as big but at the same prices. last time it broke out around 11 and ran to 17.

Thoughts appreciated.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:58PM | Unregistered CommentergeckoJB

Cam, so the recession is over and the market is already pricing in recovery? Hmmm. The shortest least painful recession I ever felt.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 01:59PM | Unregistered CommentergeckoJB

Check-out IYT for a break-out on an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Raimo,
Sorry to see the rotten fruit in FDP today.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:00PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Cam,

You believe that what is happening is less likely to happen than something that hasn't happened yet?

I am a little confused.

Gotta love the volume decline right before a reversal too. I said 175mil should do it. Unfortunately, we got 178mil. Still, just a little more that 1/2 of average.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:01PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Recession might not be reflected in the markets as much, but I bet it will be felt in our wallets for some time to come. Then again, people react to the media, so maybe we're in the clear just as soon as they tell us we are, regardless the facts.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:03PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

Yeah, FDP screwed me good. sold it and took my hit.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:04PM | Unregistered Commenterraimo

Gecko,

Thanks for you post about the "v-bottom" and such. I really learn a lot from your posts (even when I argue with them).

Thought I would throw out that the 61.8 fib level off of the entire decline (10/11 to 1/22) is 12616.12...about 7 points from where we closed. (Who says Fibs don't work?)

Enjoy the weekend everyone.

Berkshire

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:05PM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Berkshire,

I'm undecided at this point, though leaning bullish. I just wouldn't put it pas the market to re-test some of the lows if this resistance holds up.

Fri, April 4, 2008 at 02:07PM | Unregistered CommenterCameron San Diego

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