Weekly Watchlist
Saturday, March 29, 2008 at 07:59PM I didn't have the time to produce a full length feature film. You get the print version instead.
Starting with a few price patterns...
AMZN- If prices rally here at $70- watch as an inverse head & shoulders develops. You could buy on an increase with a stop just below $70 anticipating a breakout above $76. Once that happens, a $15 point move is the target.
GMT- A re-test of an inverse head & shoulders pattern. Trannies are hot, and GMT's target price is $46 over the next few months.
FMC- It's somewhat of a triangle- but I'd be buying calls soon in anticipation of a $5-$6 point move.
AGN- They make implants...and there is a rising wedge. I am expecting about a $5 point drop unfortunately.
GILD- You know I like this one, and the flag pattern that is developing. This is a good opportunity to redeem yourself if you missed the triangle breakout from the last few watchlists.
AFL- Good looking triangle...piss poor industry.
MA- Still a triangle of sorts...
BX- Symmetrical triangle; get ready to short.
GTIV- Triangle on the 1 yr / Cup & Handle on the 5 yr.
TKR- Symmetrical triangle ($7 points wide)
ESV- Look closely over the last month; a short term head & shoulders pattern.
REP- Ascending triangle.
XOM- Symmetrical triangle, $8 point price target.
CHK- Use a line chart and look at the head & shoulders pattern on top of that trend.
DVN- The early stages of a flag. Look for a retracement to $100, and then buy with both hands.
ASEI- Symmetrical triangle (nearly $15 points wide).
BUYING THE DIPS... (stocks showing my buy signal)
RIMM, ISRG, FCN, CTRP, NFLX, XEC, TJX, FXY
SELLING THE RIPS...(stocks showing my sell signal)
CME, FWLT, FXI, MTD, TNH, HOLX, SYK, NOV, DECK, GPRO
Watching for breakouts...
PCLN, ANR, BTM, CLF, POT, *CLR, AKS, RRC, UNT
Watching for breakdowns...
*HANS, AIZ
(* Already underway)
NOTE: As always, before trading options make sure the options are liquid enough to trade. For the stocks that don't provide liquid options- consider a stock trade instead.
Remember, I will be on vacation this week. I have a few "greatest hits" I plan to share each day over the weekend. Have a good week and make sure you visit me when I get back. I typically "rock the house" after returning from a little R&R.
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Reader Comments (285)
sweet...thanks Jeff...enjoy the vacation with the fam.
Jeff- I was hoping you'd fallen asleep in a hammock on a beach. Sorry to see none of my picks on your list but here are my Safe and Sane choices to add to the mix:
NEU has been advancing nicely but a bit less enthusiastically since the market as a whole has been retreating. It last traded at $74.80 and you can sell a 70/65 bear call spread for $0.80. No great shakes but you do get a 19% rate of return on a decently in the money trade with room for volatility.
Has anyone noticed PGH? I heard this on the Marketcast as a great long-term investment. It’s a low priced stock ($19.16) with a decent trend paying nearly 14% in dividends. It’s also Optionable so you can plump up your returns with covered calls. I got some shares last week for my IRA.
BUCY- I’m thinking this stock will stay above the century mark it has used as support between now and expiration day of April If it does so you can make 53% on a 100/95 bull put spread.
CRS- I have a support line drawn at $55.50 that it dropped near last Friday. I’m looking to play this as a short term directional if it breaks to the downside or bounces to the upside on Monday.
Happy trades,
Stan
Thanks, Jeff, for adding this week's watchlist to your trip preparations. Enjoy your time off!
Lori
Have a great time
Michelle,
I saw a comment you had about being on Pacific time. I assume this means you moved? How's it going? (you can email me, if you'd prefer not to "chat" here - lsutecht@yahoo.com)
Lori
Thanks Jeff:
Enjoy yourself--thanks for sharing your insights!!
Robert
Jeff,
Have a great time buddy.
Dont worry about us - we promise we wont trash the place, have any parties or break into your liquor cabinet:)
Thanks, Jeff! Have a great week!
Option Addicts,
Not sure if you are interested, but here is the latest ShadowTrader weekend email. It costs to subscribe so I imagine there are some who dont have it. Interesting stuff.
SHADOWTRADER EMAIL:
Good Morning, Traders. Small cap stocks have held up the best over the past few days. Check out the hourly chart of IWM above, which has formed a tight horizontal range and has yet to retrace even 38% of the last leg up (other indices have given back 50%). As far as retracements go, 38% or less is very bullish and is what we look for when scanning for bull flag patterns on the weekly and daily time frame. IWM should be the first major index to push higher if/when the market turns up due to it's recent relative strength.
Lets go over some of the leading chart patterns in the market starting with the natural gas/oil exploration stocks, which have exploded higher over the past few days. Look for bull flag patterns to emerge next week in DVN, APA, EAC, XEC, and WLL (HP is forming a weekly bull flag pattern). As mentioned in yesterdays report, coal stocks ANR and FDG are top notch breakout candidates at the highs. From the Nasdaq we have monster mover ISRG in a tight consolidation pattern near the highs as well as drug/biotech stocks ILMN, PRGO, and GILD.
We continue to see broad market indices in a "tug of war" around the 50ma. The choppy environment can be quite dangerous for those who attempt to time the market with tight stops intraday. We have made our bets to the long side and our stops are wide enough to avoid the noise. The bottoming process in the stock market is never obvious, as there are always a few shakeouts along the way to weed out the weak longs. Until we see major indices put in a trend day to the downside on bearish internals and heavy volume, we will remain bullish.
Sean M,
Dude, your recent posts have had me cracking up. Freakin' hilarious, buddy.
Jeff,
Have a great time. I can't make step's promise about the liquor cabinet though ;-)
XOM nearly end its triangle. I will see XOM movement in next few days.
www.optionstradingdiary.com
BTW,
Checking the IP address of the comment posts should tell you who's posting what.
Thanks Jeff. Enjoy your week.
Jeff, Enjoy your well deserved vacation. Great list of stocks to watch. Thanks for all you do.
Must be a new name for trains!!! You suppose :>)
Did anybody else notice that Jeff said "Trannies are hot"?
Whatever floats your boat homie, just keep crankin' out the watchlists:)
Sledge...Thanks.
John H.....are you JCOK?
Jeff....Thanks for thinking of us before you go. If you could just post your cell number here___-___-____ then all will be right. Don't let Amber talk you out of it. When I am watching a 30/60 dma crossover with the stochastics oversold, the MFI in decline, volume increasing and the RSI in retreat, I am going to need direct access to the Kohler Hotline. I can't make this decision on my own. Why, OH, why do you have to go on vacation?? Damm your family....(oops, sounded like Obama's Pastor just then)! I guess you deserve the time off. Have a great time with the family and never forget that they are everything. Looking forward to your refreshed return!!
step,
My post was supposed to go after yours. Funny how this time post works.
PS. I know Damn is not Damm,,,CRAP.
George, looks like weve both got trannies on the mind. My mom is going to be so disappointed. OK, enough. I am sorry.
Jeff, thanks for the list.
Step, thanks for the Shadowtrader email.
Jym, The Sunday BBQ just ended and the liquor cab. is dry, you missed it !
Aside from Jeff's list, I like - NKE APA CLF
Jeff,
Enjoy the time away!
Thanks for all you do.
Step,
Dude, you got me rollin', man. Hilarious.
Step,
My trannies have been treating me real well since last week...
That shouldn't bug you, you just came back from Amsterdam...
I'll shut up!
Berkshire
Stan,
Did you mean a 70/65 bull put spread on NEU for $0.80?
John- Thanks for paying attention. It's amazing I don't screw up my orders more often. Yes I mean Bull Puts.
Jeff- I want an edit feature on this blog for my birthday so that my mistakes aren't viewable for all eternity!
Stan
what about APA?
any thoughts?
buy on the dip? or Puts on the pop?
www.BuyOnTheDip.com
you are the man JEFF! enjoy:-)
thank you, have fun. My husband & I sure had fun with the march madness bracket game
Sean,
I am not the JOKEr, but I think you already knew that. Besides, I'm still a relative newbie and not well known enough to surprise anyone with an alter ego.
AMZN rallying?
Anyone have insight as to why Jeff thinks AMZN might rally?
To me it looks more likely to drop to the low 60's.
I have high hopes for APA retesting 109. April Max Pain is 105 and candlestick-wise we have a spinning top and a high wave. Tomorrow morning my money will be where my mouth is, order for APAPC already placed.
CLR- I just noticed it broke out to the upside on 150% volume on Friday. It pulled back from the high but it could continue higher this coming week.
Stan
I also plan on doing a Apr vertical debit spread on IYR (67/65) tomorrow.Opinions/comments welcome.
TD of CA: April Max Pain for AMZN is 72.50. I looked at the puts and passed for the moment.
Jeff,
Not to be an ass, but I have a "FOO" portfolio ($500 to each of your spot-light stocks (in the appropriate direction)), as well as a "Foo Fighters" which contains DIA, QQQQ, SPY, TMW, MDY, IWM (1400 (roughly) each (1400 because there are fewer etfs, for those interested)).
Both FOO anf FOO-Fighers are as of Friday's close. I believe you Jeff, you just threw a big red button that says "do not push" in front of me. I have to push it.
Thanks, and enjoy your time off.
Berkshire
TD of CA, I see AMZN going down to 60 myself. The rest of his pics that I checked out look decent, so who the hell knows why he would start with that one.
Here's some some of my personal pics for the week. I don't feel like typing the rationale behind them, so hopefully you all know how to read a chart.
up...
YTEC
JRCC
MTL
XTO
RRC
HUBG
FMX
CLF
MEE
PCU
down...
HTE
RJF
COLB
ACTU
BRCD
(the next few are a little late but still probably going down)
JBLU
C
WM
CISG
GHL
PAL
JC and CelticAces,
Thanks for your thoughts... I needed something to keep me busy at 10:00 on Sunday night!
TD of CA: 70 is a big support level for AMZN and the SMA(10) is right there to bounce off of too, so I passed.
My AMZN take:
AMZN 69.76
.ZQNPM Apr 65 p 1.53 x 2
Note: had last-minute bump on fri afternoon as seen on OX ten-day chart, is testing support...
stop at .75
max pain is at 72.50
http://www.askstockguru.com/cgi-bin/s?s=amzn&SUBMIT=GO
http://americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=AMZN&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S
There is a strong reverse momentum discrepancy on the RSI(14) in the XLF. This occurs when the oscillator makes a higher peak while price makes a lower peak.
On XLF, compare the peak on 2/27 with the peak on 3/24. Look at both price and RSI(14) and you should see what I mean.
Here is a chapter from a book that gives some good examples of this bearish divergence:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2by5dv
Be very cautious in this market folks, because of this momentum discrepancy, XLF will likely put in a new low and lead the broader market down again.
Enjoy Jeff, RRC,CLR,FXY,TJX,FCM,NFLX great longs for sure!
Jeff - Have a great vacation -
Thank you for fitting the watch list in to your pre-vacation plans!!!! - You're amazing.
Hope you have great weather!
CALM...pre market up....must be good earnings comming
CALM..shoo...2.41 per share for a 40 stock...for a quarter......thats huge.
Thanks for the posting....the last few have been an absolute blast as well. :)
BTW the all-text (ie non-video) watchlist post was VERY helpful given that I'm more e-mail and text-driven than video driven when traveling.
Keep up the awesome work and great attitude!
DrDirt,
In hindsight, the price action in CALM last Friday told the story. Might not be too late to get in though. As one poster pointed out, the float is over 80% short. That's a serious load of short positions which will need to be covered over the coming days. I'll be buying some calls on the open for a quick punt.
JEC performing well so far this morning. VIP's really starting to annoy the heck out of me. Pick a direction already!
CALM's really faded here in the opening. Short sellers attempting to keep it down?
CALM ...what the hell happened!!