Jeff,
Thanks for all the posts today. You've kept me in the game for another day. However, I thought you didn't use oscillators ;)
BTW, Doug pegged the point spread on both my Vols games this week, but he was only 50% on the results. They still may surprise some folks...like the market.

Anyone have a opinion on
MA
possible H&S falls to 180 if not further

betred

Jeff,

What was it about today's weakness that did not convince you to get bearish?

I know it wasn't just the oscillator, that had you bullish.

Thank you for the insight.

I took some profits on portions of my puts and added some calls to put me relatively neutral going into tomorrow. If I didn't have to work I would have been a little more profitable. Without your guidance over the past year, I wouldn’t be profitable.

Thanks! Cheers!

John

same here because i have full time job it gets little difficult to analyze and place trade as the day goes. i think as per jeffs strategy most of the trade are placed end of day. It would be nice if there is a section where some of the probable entries can be typed so we dont have to go through all the reading.

just couple of tickler to research.

Jeff, just listened to Marketcast and I have to say, yet again, what a difference when you are on it. And Turvey isn't bad either when he is with you. You present everything so clearly and so informatively, it helps make sense of this crazy market. So thank you! Wish you did it everyday though.

This has never been a site to have trades spoon fed to anyone. One man's call is another man's put. It is up to the trader to decide what fits their rules and tolerance. This can be a painful process, but the goal is to become successful, independant traders. I know Jeff has that goal for the group. I have that goal for myself.

Jeff,

The FXY has moved up just as the SPY declines due to the unwinding of the carry trade. FXY is now bumping up to upper end of long term resistence line.

So this supports your comment that the S&P may rally as the FXY gets a rest. Also buy Commodities on the pull back!!! (oil, ucr, ung, dba, dbp,pcu, cnx, swc, gld, cef, slv). World-wide hyper-inflation is on the way as the US floods the world with $$$ and buys Treasuries to drive the 10 yr note to 2% (IMO)

Great job Jeff.

Berkshire, earlier you wrote about people cheering for inflation. I read the other day that hyper inflation is a good way to get people out of debt. I guess if your assets are increasing in value, you can re-over-leverage yourself again, or something.

I also saw on asian CNBC last night that fed fund futures are predicting a sub 2% interest rate by June. I don't see how that will be bullish for the dollar , but I like what you're onto about sentiment.

I wouldn't worry about MON either, they're going to have another blowout quarter. They are raising the cost of herbicide and will be selling more seed to foreign countries as well as having a banner year in the US.

Jeff,
Just this morning I was asking myself why I could find so many bullish entries and so few bearish entries (note that I said "Entries" not "trades") Then I reflected on the last time that happened. It was at the end of a substantial dip in the S&P and the beginning of a significant rally. Everything's oversold. Time to put on the rally caps.

Mike. I love the look of MA but for the exact opposite reason as you. I don't see any H&S... all I see is a trend line that was bounced off of today. I see an initial target of 220 on this and a secondary target of 240.

And as Berkshire will soon discover with MON... I am never wrong. Remember... I am the Captain. And Rule #1 is...the Captain is always right. If the Captain is ever wrong... see Rule #1.

Is that not a bear flag on the 60d/60m SPY or you are just happy to see me?

C2
I see that also starting on 9/11 bouncing off it again on 10/25,
1/22 and again today.
Thanks for the confirmation I just need someone that also sees that other side.
betred

Ouch...

That's three quick blows.

Berkshire

Apparently there are two new gold ETFs

DGP Gold Ultra Long 2X

DZZ Gold Ultra Short 2X

If anyone mentioned those, I guess I missed it.

Berk
you think we continue down from here or do you think we get a bounce for a couple of days?
betred

Hi Jeff and fellow option addict followers,
I'm still rather new to the option addict site. But I must say I like what I see here. Thank you very much for all the GREAT Info that you have compiled onto one site and your points of view in this crazy market.

C2 (I like that Arty),

I question why you see no bearish entries? First few to ring a bell with me are PTR, PBR, SNP (some entries were technically yesterday...), GNK made a beautiful top today, ICE, and the biggest screamer for me BIDU. Unless of course you are implying that most of the stocks were down today. In which case I acknowledge your reality. (Breadth (Most 2:1): SP (100 and 500) negative, NQ 50:50, Dow negative, Russel Mid and Small Cap negative)

I suppose in retrospect some of them may need a few $ still. In which case you small rally makes sense. The $VIX still needs to shed 1.5 to retest the breakout line, and the $INDU did cross outside of 2.0 Bollinger bands within 4 days of $VIX sell signal. All are decent points for a decent rally.

You might have 300 DOW points, but I wouldn't count on more than that.

Berkshire

Hey Berk,

"(I like that Arty)"

I must humbly say that if you took the time to digest everything I post you would like it. Why? Because, it is all really; really good!

Cheers,
Arty

Nate,

You're exactly right about the hyper-inflation. However, we should soon be facing deflation, which is quite a different story. As far as interest rates, they will almost surely reach 0.00% before the end of this "mess." The market rate is around 1.5 right now, current rate is 3.5. I think that leaves a 2.0 point discrepancy between what people want and what people have. Which brings me to another point (and I may misunderstand (I still have A LOT too learn))...

I don't see how interest rates affect the value of the dollar (unless it is through the carry-trade, which I am slightly fuzzy on). From what I know, interest rates are what you get (interest) for your money. Am I missing something??

As far as the optimism (sentiment)...watch that. It tells a lot...
(Euro 98%, Gold 97%)

Hope I didn't spill too many beans.

I think we'll keep bouncing at this line until we don't. The don't will probably come when its finally made clear that no one is bailing out Ambac.

Forgot to Tag...

Berkshire

Berkshire

Nate

Love all those Ambac rallies.

Arty,

As far as you NASDAQ question, the index as a whole, through the whole of it's decline lost, (not 80%, I'm sorry) 78.4%. No, it did not do this in 1 day, it did it in 942 (2 and 3/4 years).

I apologize about the generalization. Didn't mean to confues you.

40 days in NASDAQ had lost 37%, then rallied. We went 80 days in and lost 20%, then rallied. We are moving at a slower pace (roughly 50%), but the index is 40% smaller now (at the start), than it was then.

Berkshire

I don't know anything about interest rates and currency values either, other than its what all the people on TV and most of the blogs I read say happens as interest rates fall. I only took micro econ in college, and I slept through pretty much all of it. Its something I tell myself I'm interested in, but once I start reading about it, I stop being interested.

Nate,

I took economics, from a baseball coach that didn't like me because I played soccer, in high school. That is my economic background.
Ditto to the sleeping...or something...

Perhaps Jeff will be able to shed some light on this one...

Berkshire

Here is the reason to be bullish on MA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpxKYkcFRWk

F2T
That was "PRICELESS" OK so that blows
MA it is
betred

CNX looks like it got close to the 50 DMA, went back up but came down to support by the end of the day. Tomorrow could be a good bullish REE.
Stan

DRYS touched and bounced off a long term support and closed right on the 50 and 200 DMA which, coincidentally are just about the same. A break through to the downside could be a good entry.

Nate,

If anything, I think a case could be made that raising rates is bad for the dollar. Since it has been declining for around 5 years, and we have been raising rates since the NASDAQ bottom in '02, they seem at least moderately correlated.

IMO.

Berkshire

funny

Is that a symmetrical triangle on ICE ?

Ax,

Looks more "ascending in a downtrend" to me. Perhaps that makes it a "bearish wedge?"

Berkshire

AXman- I would say so.

How long can a falling body remain in motion? IBN dropped and then gapped down the next 3 days. This was on one of my bearish watchlists which just goes to prove I have too many to watch if I miss moves like these!
Stan

Oh, bill, you're absolutely killing me.

I'm bearish on the stock as well. Pretty new at price patterns but really like $140 as serious resistance.

Stan,

Gravity works against your statement...A better question would be how long can a "body" stay up??

Berkshire

Oh, bill, you're absolutely killing me.

just downloaded and wanted to market cast i dont see any video is marketcast just audio or is there a video also

Ax,

The thing that would "space" during the 11-13. Ideally, that rally would have touched the upper resistance line.

Unless you were using the 13th as the upper line (assuming it starts on 1/24 high (I think you use closes, no??) and I was using 2/25 as my other high). A triangle using a line from 1/24 to 2/13 would be fairly feasable, however it would have already trickled (no volume) out and retested. I would really like to see one more touch in the second scenario triangle, however, I think (either way) it is the more feasable , IF a triangle exists.

That make sense?

I set out to make it easier, and think I muddled the water...

Berkshire

Ax,

ICE (of course).

Berkshire

The thing that would bother me is "space"...

Berkshire

Bill- if you're on the Investools site there is a great video that goes with the Marketcast. Little dancing dots next to the volume tab. Just like an equalizer but it's not.

The only useful thing to do is open up your Prophet charts and follow along with what they're talking about.

Or you can stare at the dancing dots.

“You're exactly right about the hyper-inflation. However, we should soon be facing deflation, which is quite a different story. As far as interest rates, they will almost surely reach 0.00% before the end of this "mess." The market rate is around 1.5 right now, current rate is 3.5. I think that leaves a 2.0 point discrepancy between what people want and what people have. Which brings me to another point (and I may misunderstand (I still have A LOT too learn))...”
Ben, has no problem with inflation, he welcomes it and might lower rates a little more than expected. Rates are accommodative on a globally, and CPI bias. If you read about Ben B you will learn that he is a scholar of the Great Depression and Japan. He believes if Japan would have let their currency fall, ie low accommodative rates, they could have avoided deflation. Read his white paper publish in 1999 on Japan. (Low rates, falling dollar, good for commodities. Jeff is on to this, the charts are obvious.) We are not headed for the great depression.
Interest rate parity affects currencies. Just Google IT!!!! The Fed wants the dollar to fall it creates inflation, and we need inflation, when there is a financial asset deflation. It just might work.