Deep Thoughts...
Wednesday, March 5, 2008 at 11:18AM While the rest of the market was busy concerning themselves over the nonsensical drama surrounding bond insurers, I spent the day in the trenches looking to capitalize on a market that wants to go higher. After taking profits yesterday on the majority of my bearish positions (while the market held support)I am left with a delta positive account...which is something I am trying to monitor closely heading into tomorrows trading.
Thanks to some timely movements over the last few days/weeks...here are a few things on my mind...
Should I take profits?

What was that for?

Are these stocks ever going down?

Are these stocks ever going up?

See you in the morning.







Reader Comments (31)
good post. My view, euro and commodities continue higher as the fed floods the world with dollars.
Jeff- I take it you are still in the above bearish positions? So am I (Thank you very much!) I don't want to sell before I see some strength in the down trending stocks. Are you taking partial profits on the above?
Stan
Jeff
After speaking with you I've been able to readjust my trading and lately Ive been capitalizing on some of your suggestions in the watchlist. Thanks for sticking around with me.
Also, will you be posting your full bracket on the site or do we have to pay for such privileged information? I might have to submit a bracket with your picks simply out of respect for your prognostication abilities.
Step
My thumb is out, I'm on the side of the road & I'm look for a ride (opinion)...
GRMN could it have found it's bottom? Thinking about Mar $55 NP for $1.55 for 2.8% rtn these next two + weeks. Second, with the right entry (maybe) buying some calls.
Opinions?
Step,
I want to do a group brakcet system here. In fact, I am going to run a poll to see what the demand looks like.
I might build a special page for it here on the site and set up a paypal account to launder money to the winners.
I'm totally into money laundering.....
QCOM - one that I had the mis-fortune to (naked put) own which is going from a 'jester' to a prince.; In my humble opinion - still moving up.
Jodi,
I'll help you.
Jeff, do you use the IT website to do your watch list screenings? I know you have a million that you go through regularly, but how do you actually do it? I find the IT thumbnails on the searches and watch lists are a little small to show the nuances that we often look for.
With the capabilities of looking through 150 per list, I have maxed out my space via watchlists and portfolios and just scroll through thumbnails.
Jeff,
Man, I wish I could brag like everyone else here, but I've been making some serious mistakes, my friend. I understand the concepts, but there's something wrong with my execution. I've placed over 80 option trades (that's "eighty" round trips) in the last two weeks, and my account is down almost ten percent in that same time period.
I'm getting really discouraged to find that I'm killing myself very quickly while so many others on this blog are thriving. It wouldn't be so bad if I knew it was a "temporary phase", but I don't know if this is reflecting some underlying defect in my abilities as a new trader.
I can't seem to grasp what I'm doing wrong. All your ideas are awesome, and it obviously works for you and so many others. I don't know if I'm just "overtrading", messing with wider spreads, exiting too soon on "gray areas" like today's ESRX (which I had puts on, but it closed above my resistance line -- what to do?), or if it's because I'm only swing trading and not daytrading in this environment, or too many anticipation trades, or I just don't have the experience under my belt yet.
I will never quit. But I can't afford to lose at this pace for long, or I'll be forced out of the game with no capital left. Please let me know when you are opening up one-on-one coaching sessions. I'll be first in line and pay whatever you think is fair. I read and re-read everything you post daily, and I follow everything that is commented on by you and several others. Thanks for all you do.
I know this bottoming phase is rough, and it's a bear market, but I don't want to use that as an excuse since it's obviously possible to make a lot of money in this environment, as has been repeated here by so many lately. I just want to get on that gravy train, but right now I'm on the moldy bread express.
Gumbo
Re: LDK Apr25 Put
2/27/08 Before Close $1.55 ($27.65)
3/4/08 Late Morning $3.40 ($23.90)
116%
I'd maybe take some profits on FXE, but would certainly keep a position while it's running up. A close below the previous day's price action would be my exit.
Sledge,
Hang in there. You'll pull out of it.
Fire me an e-mail if you need a little help.
Sledge,
On ESRX, I would have used your exit as my exit as well, so don't feel bad. I myself am having a rough week, but I know that it will happen sometimes. Just keep trading your plan, and remember that cash is a position, so don't be afraid to go there if you have to.
Sledge,
I feel your pain. I, too will never quit. I am absolutely committed to becoming successful, but my account is down big in the past two weeks.
I will gladly tell about both winners and losers, but everyone has a bunch of their own losing trades to look at, I human nature is to tout winners and brush the losers under the rug. The blog makes it seem like everyones printing money, but I for one am not.
That's why I think there were so many people interested in hearing about Jeff's losing trades. Jeff does phenomenal work, and it seems like he never loses, so it is a tremendous learning experieince to see how he handles a loser. Just like engineering, you learn more from failures that successes.
I try not to over-tout my successes. There are plenty of trades that I lose on, but I always make sure I don't lose a lot; if that makes sense.
Berk???
Berk??????
FXE looks like it is going to 156 to me. I would not sell here. In fact I think I will get some calls tomorrow.
Sledge, I was losing much more than gaining when doing options only. I mix my trading now and actually buy the stocks...good uptrends and good P/E's compared within the sectors. Most of these are winners over time (3mos-1yr) and help keep your portfolio stable.I own MTL,AEM,POT,DE among others.Then I just trade small amounts (like 1 or 2 contracts)in good value opts ....which helps you gain experience w/o losing too much to start. Opts take some time ....and don't expect to cash in overnite. Just my 2 cents...works for me.
Sledge,
First, please remember that we tend to lick our wounds in private and celebrate our winnings with our friends on the blog. But several people have talked about how difficult a period this has been. I, too, have struggled since the first of the year, and things have just been turning around in the last 10 days.
Of course, you already know what you can do to stop the bleeding - paper trading, smaller and fewer positions - but don't think for a minute that you are alone. If the professionals are going in the red, you shouldn't beat yourself up for struggling yourself.
Take Jeff at his word and send him an email. This is a fantastic community and if you stick with it you WILL make it.
Abraços,
Lori
clean cups!
I don't know if I can add...2.5 yrs ago, I pulled $50K from my e-Trade account and took it down to $25K in 60 days when I signed up with I.T. That was a loss of $25K plus the $25K ($50K) that I paid for the I.T. PhD course. Since then & as a student of Jeff Kohler for the same period (Master Talk), I've learned patience & reality.
With experience, I've learned to sell premiums. I just gradually build and do not attempt the quick homeruns. Clint Eastwood once stated:, "a man needs to know his limitations".” My question, “Do you know yours?”
For me, I sell prem's (NP’s) and if I own, there is the compounding of ownership into next year. Consequently & looking back, my biggest losses were selling my bought positions becuz…. (bad decisions).
That said, for most, there aren't many triple digit gain years. For me, what's wrong with maybe a 10% to 30% return per year with a few homerun years.
Jeff, Sir Trading Jeff, you spend an enormous amount of time sharing what you are so great at – my hat is off to you. Going back to Sam Walton (Walmart) who once stated, ‘everyone thinks WalMart was an overnight success, which he went on to state, let me clear that up, it was 25 years in the making.’
For me, trading is years in the making! To success!
Sledge,
With 2 of the first 3 comments on this post to you, I had to go back and read what I missed. I'm completely with you (including the part of being willing to pay for one-on-one coaching) and the post you wrote could had my name at the bottom.
This blog is great as there is great support from Jeff and many experienced traders who are willing to provide support. Hang in there – I know it’s been rough, but I have found what I aspire to do for a living, now I just have to learn how to do it.
Good luck,
Denver
I can dido Sledge also and I would like to say, what a great group of folks on this blog, thanks to all of you for the encouragement.
I too love this and have struggled alot and it really helps to hear that others have had some of the same problems.
Thank you to everone
Tim
Lori, I could have written your post for you...especially for the last 10 days, which has been the same for me.
Things seem to be clicking some. Still got some gaps I need to fill, but slowly digging out of the hole. Glad to hear there are others in the same position/curve.
Sledge, Stop trading for couple of days( you are not losing anything, opportunities will keep coming). Couple of highlight from previous comments
1. Know yourself, know your weaknesses
2. Patience is the key
3. Trade small
4. Don't open more positions, wait for the best ones
I am also in the same boat as you are, I am looking into the points I just noted above.
Taxi
Sledge,
We are lucky to have Jeff's blog to share our trading experiences. Your post has brought some of the best responses on how we all react to the same situation.
I have only read one of Jack Schwager's Market Wizzards books but thats when I realized other people experienced my same pain. Your post holds a mirror up for all us.
I am new to trading (first IT seminar May 2007)... So I have a ton to learn. PHD student so like many... made the commitment to learning... much like yourself.
Here's what I need to do to improve my trading:
1. Review my trading journal and bring it up to date.
2. Re-commit myself to the IT education classes and Jeff's educational opportunities on his blog.
3. Refine my trading rules for bounce trades, breakouts, etc.
I reorganized my watchlists (I am assuming you are using the IT platform) based on how Jeff organizes his. It changed the way I see industries, price patterns, trends...
So thanks MR. OPTION ADDICT for elevating my trading and thank all of you for posting... this thread has been very enlightening.
Confidence is contagious!
Jeff,
For the little that it's worth, better minds than mine saw 154 on the euro at the breakout. Longer term, 140. Just a thought.
Anyone,
How are we positioning ourselves for the potential correction in gold when it hits the century?