reposting from the last thread:

Sledge,
First, please remember that we tend to lick our wounds in private and celebrate our winnings with our friends on the blog. But several people have talked about how difficult a period this has been. I, too, have struggled since the first of the year, and things have just been turning around in the last 10 days.
Of course, you already know what you can do to stop the bleeding - paper trading, smaller and fewer positions - but don't think for a minute that you are alone. If the professionals are going in the red, you shouldn't beat yourself up for struggling yourself.
Take Jeff at his word and send him an email. This is a fantastic community and if you stick with it you WILL make it.
Abraços,
Lori

Scooter,

Do you still work late on Wednesdays?

Sledge,

I am sure you have done some reading but I got a lot out of Market Wizards. Every wildly successful trader was on the brink of disaster before they achieved success. I know that a few disasters in my own account has made me a better trader. 2/27/07 was a huge eye opener for me and I can thank Krash Kohler for that!! Maybe we should all be more open about our failed trades so they can be critiqued by Jeff and the more experienced bloggers. I think back and have told my wife that if I knew that this was a 2 year learning curve, I may have decided to pursue other interests. Now I am hooked! I can't make money at golf or fishing so this is my financial outlet. I retired at 48 so I have to keep the mind busy and the money working and most importantly, stay out of my wife's hair. Hang in there buddy. If you leave now, you never will realize what you could have achieved and we will never realize what you could have achieved.

Great advice, Sean. And, it looks like you are clairvoyant. ;-)

Jeff,
Unless you slept with Britney Spears and were a frequent guest on the Howard Stern show, I see on resemblance. :-)

Jeff, you mentioned you took profits on your bearish positions yesterday as the market held support causing you to now become delta positive.

Did your trades hit their targets yesterday while the market held support & that's why you exited? I know mine didn't. Or were you just "exiting based on the anticipation of the market tide shifting." Is that an exit strategy??

Just trying to decode the master plan. You are the man, thanks!

Sledge,

I was in a similar situation like that right after the big drop around the new year. I recommend two things.

1. Stop trading for a couple of days. Obviously if you have any positions out there let them play out, but don't put on any new positions.

2. Focus on your trading plan. I actaully re-wrote my entire trading plan, using Jeffs Article on the subject as a guide.

This helped my realize two mistakes I was making that cost me almost all my losses.

1. I did not trade my plan, especially my exits. If you plan tells you to exit a trade DO IT.

2. Not entering at EE.

Hope this helps.

Sledge,

I agree with all the input given thus far. But what sticks out to me is 80 trades in 2 weeks. That sounds very big if you are on a losing streak. So I would immediately scale WAY back. That will take the stress off and only trade the most compelling setups.Truthfully I get uncomfortable if I have more than 7 trades going at a time, currently I have 3.

I spoke with a close friend over the weekend who works for one of the top mutual fund companies in the U.S. and he said in this market enivronment no one is making any money( except for Jeff and a few addicts)this year. Just as Jeff has said many times, the market is still very choppy so just trade small until the volatility clears.

Maybe we should post about our losing trades more so we can learn, because I to feel like how is it everyone seems to be winning so much and my account just churns. Last year I returned triple digits in my account only to get a huge smack down in January( granted the market was bullish then). Humbling and scary experience,but I've scaled way back and am just trading through this crazy market.

Be patient you will get there.

IBKR looks like a classic double top with a retest of broken support. I may get some puts tomorrow.

Jeff,

In the old days, market makers could rather easily manipulate obvious support/resistance areas and trigger stops, especially in low volume/highly volatile markets. The theory was that this was done to create volume, after all, that's where their money was made. With computers now dominating the trading floors, do you think this manipulation is still possible? Or is it just the nature of the current environment for so many trades to get whipsawed right around these areas?

Example, ABT/HOLX I think many got stopped out as these closed slightly above their EE, only to then quickly reverse and become profitable trades.

As always, thanks for all you do here!

Hey Jeff-

Are you referring to you a Limp Bizkit comment over at the SofH the other day? Psycho determination and backward baseball hat? Yes. Otherwise, never had the pleasure of meeting either one of you in person to make a call.

Thanks for all you do.

PV

Sledge,

I posted today that I took profits the past 2 days. Do not for a minute think that I am raking in the dough here. It has been extremely tough and I took those profits simply because I *could* and did not want to give them back. I have had way more losers this year than winners and my account is not growing at all. Mostly churning. I am actually down about 2%for the year so far but in this market, that's pretty good.

I also should tell you that I am only trading with about 25% of my account right now and the rest is in cash.

In looking over my trades, the one thing that has saved me is keeping my losses small. I set a dollar amount that I am willing to lose per trade and position size according to that. I'm not great with 'rules' in general but this is one rule that I live by even if that means I can't trade the big swingers like GOOG and CME.

Stick with it. If you have the desire and the discipline, the money will follow. That belief is what is keeping me going too.

Post 10 Suggestion to fellow OA's
I read most of the post and try to back track when someone makes a comment on a prior post of interest. Some times difficult. It would help I think if the the first blogger listed Post 1 and each subsequent blogger added the next number. When you answer or comment on a prior post ref. the post number. Hopefully, this will make it easier to follow comments.

Tom in SC

Post 13 You have to be fast

Tom in SC

Whoever commented on DBA puts. If someone is buying april puts, they may be speculating on the USDA crop estimate report due out at the end of the month. However, I fail to see how that will hurt DBA. It will more than likely cause a rally in some crops and a drop in others.

Sledge,

With 2 of the first 3 comments on this post to you, I had to go back and read what I missed. I'm completely with you (including the part of being willing to pay for one-on-one coaching) and the post you wrote could had my name at the bottom.

This blog is great as there is great support from Jeff and many experienced traders who are willing to provide support. Hang in there – I know it’s been rough, but I have found what I aspire to do for a living, now I just have to learn how to do it.

Good luck,

Denver

Ben, I got stopped out of both of those trades too!

My sincere thanks to each of you. I'm going back and carefully re-reading each person's thoughts. I'm grateful to be surrounded by such a great group of people, and dare I say, friends. I hope to eventually shake hands with each of you some day.

Unless you're a golf coach who was attacked by an alligator. I don't want to crush your wooden hand.

I started in may 07, up 25% in 2 mnths. Since Aug. down 33%. I Won't quit, I believe this is a great learning curve, E/E, Profit taking, Not taking losses before it has failed... etc., Thanks to Jeff and you all.

Brenda

DG

I did also, but then I jumped back in both. I've been doing that often, which is why I asked Jeff his thoughts. He even said he was wrong on HOLX, but now look at it. It seems many trades are doing what there supposed to do, but not until shaking some of us out. ESRX is another to keep an eye on and I mentioned TEX this morning. They go right into that "gray area" of should I stay/go/buy/pass and make everybody nervous, but eventually they do what they are supposed to. I'm now drawing lines with a magic marker instead of a crayon and then GENZ makes me reconsider that strategy.

A Recent Failed Trade For Me.

MEE, Bot 100 shares for $42.66 on 2/26
Sld 100 shares for $41.56 on 2/27

http://img337.imageshack.us/my.php?image=mee0308wm8.gif

By the way I am still in ESRX, and one nobody has mentioned, MLM

Brenda

Sledge,

One thing that I think is key is that you have to know why you are not profitable. If you don't know what you don't know, you can't fix it.

You may be cutting winners short, letting losers run, overtrading, poor money management, etc, but if you're not sure why, you have to stop trading and find out.

I always go back and evaluate trades at a later time. I've looked at trades that I made two months ago and wondered what the heck I was thinking.

Once you know what you need to correct, you will get on the right track and the hemorrhaging will stop.

On the flip side, find out what you are doing well and do it more! Try to find a common denominator among your successful trades.

I found that I couldn't trade price patterns at all, because I didn't know what I didn't know. I could, however, trade bearish bounces like a champ, so I focused on that instead of trying to trade price patterns, breakouts, 3 green arrows, spreads, selling puts, and selling covered calls, all at the same time.

This blog has been a great asset to many like-minded traders, myself included, and I am glad I rediscovered it. The real-time "peer review" is phenomenally better than any coaching,trading room or newsletter.

Hello. My name is Popeious.... and I'm an Options Addict.

I'm down almost 25% on my account since January 1st.

I am an addict, because I want to jump into every good EE, pattern setup and breakout, and be part of every market move.

I'm compelled to read, watch, and enter as many "good" and "right" trades off of Sir Kohler's watchlist.

Just 2 days ago, I entered into 7 trades that should have all been winners. 2, I had to just get out. 3 are loosing money in the "day or two that follow" the trade. 2 are actually making money immediately. Not to mention the other 6 that were already working well, or already died before I could kill them.

I can't watch the market all day because I have a "job" that I could loose because of my addiction

I can't jump on trades between 3 and 4pm; when I'd like to. I can't act when the market whips.

I have learned, just this week... that much like playing roulette, that you can't win buy speading chips all over the board. I am going to try to stick with fewer, consistent plays.. by keep my running trade list shorter.

I must control my addiction.

Thank you for your support.

Now... Who wants to be my sponsor? ; )

This is therapy day, I love it! There are some great comments here. The losses are frustrating, but I, like all of you am addicted to this. I own a business that is heavily affected by the housing market and while I should be out working the business, I find myself sitting at my 3 computer screens hitting refresh on the browser every 30 seconds to be sure I don't miss anything here!

I appreciate everyone's input, because for a fairly new trader like me, it is HUGE! Jeff, thanks for doing this. I know you hear it a lot, but you are changing peoples lives here.

Happy trading.

Jeff, OA'S and All,

Sorry, I may have not introduced myself properly, I am bad with manners. I am a noob to posting, but a long time reader (snooper). I have nothing to add, just looking for help.

Brenda

Jeff,

For FXE, do you have a sell trigger? Follow your rules! ;)

~J

Kim, I looked at your chart and then looked at my chart. We have almost identical trend lines except I never saw this as an asc. triangle, never saw a breakout and hence didn't trade it. It's interesting that you cut it short after losing such a small amount. On a stock trade I usually give it more room, especially since it didn't close below the trend line (for another 2 days anyway). Thanks for posting that.

Sledge,

I can't echo optionSniper's advice loud enough. Review, review, review. As I went back over my trades, I noticed one stategy that was bringing in most of my proift.

So I cut out everything else and focused on just one strategy, just one pattern.

When to enter and exit became almost intuitive. I stopped trading every bounce, breakout, selling premuim, etc. and focused on 1 thing I seemed to be
trading well, and it changed my bottom line dramatically.

Of course I miss so many opportunities but until I can trade full time I'm okay with that.

Thanks Jeff for all the instruction you provide here without charging another $25k!! And thanks for all the charts you've helped me in the past year!

Beth Ann

BP
I got out of that trade when it hit 105 that was my stop
looking at it now it could fall further but that was where I set my stop oh 112+ was my entry 105 my exit on my puts.

betred

Jeff-

Actually, I think, a pretty cool cover of the original song. Thanks for ending the day with it. And as far as the nickname... hmmmm. I hope it's blue eyes.

Thanks for all you do. I can't tell you how many of your blogs, thoughts, and articles I've copied and pasted so I could re-read them again and again. They just seem to be getting better and better all the time.

liz

1% return/mo = 12% return/ yr & 2%/mo = 24%/yr

How many MVP's are there in one yr? Warren Buffet has had a lucky streak of 21%/yr in 40+ yrs.

Big screen TV's, large SUV's 5,000 sq ft homes, membership to country clubs. What happened to reality? That's our problem...

Everyone wants it overnite.

We are all winners but stock trading steroids?

Guys, a few days ago I asked the question from this group about what you would consider selling into strength.

well based on input give here I am now using hourly charts to setup my exits after I am profitable in a trade. This also means I am not waiting for targets to be reached. The last run down by the market was good mainly due to some timely posts from Jeff about plays like AMLN, AET, XL. Then I made sure that as market was reaching support that I kept a close eye on each position and got out when U saw a slowdown in the move down. I missed some extra moves on AMLN but hey most of these trades I walked away with 50% profits.

I wanted to share this to see if this might help other folks here. My struggle in this market has been exits and I think I might have found my exit stragey for now

Thanks

Final thought...

If you are 30yrs young with only $1K today and you can return 24% /yr to the ripe age of 65 yr/old you will have $1,861M & adjusted for a 3% inflation index it would be $790K. Now, living to 90 yr old from the ripe age of 65 with-outs any investment other than the money market you would have almost $3K/mo to live on.

So, setting some investment goals might help in some over aggressive trading ambitions. Ask yourself, today, you are here, where do you want to be in 'X" years? If you want to be Warren Buffet, target for 2%/mo (not adjusted for inflation). Finally, this is just a simple Omaha, NE boy talking – born & raised just down the street from Warren – fact!

Popeious,

I'll be the Britney Spears for your Pepsi...well something like that. I was in the spreading chips mode too the last couple of weeks and it hurt me worse than it hurt you. I also have a job and can't watch the market as much as I'd like. I've come to the same conclusion...be more picky on trades and keep my positions down to 2-4. That way I can focus on those trades and it forces me not to jump on everything that looks so good at first glance.

Here's to the long road of picking up our losses and making the year profitable.

My situation is like what a lot of others have posted. My account is relatively flat since the first of the year. What I'm up one day I'm down the next. Jeff posted in one of the other threads today DIVERSIFY. I would also like to know if his puts hit target yesterday or if he sold off because the market found support. I have too many positions open now and not enough bullish ones. I need to be taking Jeffs bullish trades even though they don't look right to me. He is the master and sure can find ALPHA. Thanks for all you do Jeff.

Free2Trade,

are you in Omaha,NE. So am I. may be we can do a OA get together we can get Brett to join us also.

Tom in SC
Say What?

I am in the exact same sinking boat...trying to figure out what the heck I'm doing wrong... guess I need to do more reading and self reflection.

I can't even ponder to ask Jeff for help right now since I'm not doing what he has already told us to do!

sigh...

Sledge- We are very fortunate to have Jeff and many Option Addicts that give tirelessly to help other traders. This is a priceless group. I would like to echo OptionSniper about studying your failed trades. I find it useful to place my notes right on the Prophet chart with the date and time of the trade, the option delta, the stock price, what my reasoning is for getting into the trade and always, always, a target price and a "Get out of Dodge" line in the sand. I calculate ahead of time the worst case scenario and position size as if my stop loss is hit. I have to be ok with the amount of my predetermined loss so if it's a failed trade because it didn't do what I wanted it to, at least I followed my rules and the loss is acceptable. I have to put these notes on because sometimes when I look back all I can think of is "What hallucinogenic drug was I on when I made THAT trade?" Yes we all like to chirp about our winners but we all have to manage our losers. Here's one of mine from today:

JLL was showing a bearish divergence on the MACD. The 26th of February would have been a perfect entry on a double top but I didn't get in until a few days later on the 29th with 10 April 85 put contracts at $9.80. Today the stock climbed up and when it exceeded my entry point I sold out at $8.70 with an $1100 loss. Normally I trade during the last half hour but today it looked like it was going to keep climbing so I bailed. So what do I do now- forget about it and move on? No, I'm looking for a re-entry. Not for revenge, but because I think it's going down in the near future. Maybe not tomorrow or the next day but I can be patient and wait. The market will always be there and I'm here to trade for the long haul so I'll wait until the time is right and then I'll take my shot like the Option Sniper.

So scale back your trading until you figure out where your mistakes are. I've heard it said many times to conserve your money because a year from now you'll be a much better trader and you'll want to have some money to trade with then! Good luck,
Stan

Brett, born & raised in the Cathedral area. Raced soap box out at Rosenblatt, smoked stuff in Memorial Park in the 60's, worked for Ms B, NB furniture Mart in the 60's, painted U.P car's in the late 60's, learned to hate unions, left for the USAF after failing my first semester at UNO - managed to find myself with numerous advancements & now in AZ. But, I am a Big Red - I still go to Omaha for Martin's Donuts and Joe Tess Fish & lastly, I would gladly look you up when in town. My sister is with M of O & I understand there is a very active trading group in town. Lastly, it's funny how life moves so quick.

Free2Trade,
Did you learn naked puts thru investools? Do you have any other resource you could recommend as well, you see to have them nailed! thanks, Beth Ann

Beth Ann - yes & no.

I learned how to sell premiums after my personal disater of being an I.T. know-it-all (tounge n cheek). After major set-backs and the TOS / I.T. merger and a few Don Kaufman (he is with TOS) seminars, I developed my own trading style. Temper that with I'm 56 and my time horizon is sometime in the future (for me). Which means, I trade for the fun of it.

I appreciate people like Susy Orman. With that, we need to know why we are trading. What are our long term goals? I know I am no young 29 yr old -so- my goals are different. That said, we are taught to trade our rules. But, our trading rules should be inside our life goals. Does that make sense?

Jeff,
Woke grandma out of a bender for that song and the recos. You know what she says, "I fuckin love it" as a matter of fact she murmured in disbelief "these gifts Jeff gives, are you fucking kidding me?" on to "Are they not paying attention?" moreover "for fucks sakes' those are tap ins!".....and finally, "for the love of our creator I hope they are taking them".....

Ashamedly; I answered to my loving hip grandma with some shame, "ONLY SOME DO".

Thanks for the guidence and the soothing great music.

Cheers,
Arnold T Pants Esquire

Hi OA's,

there are lot of comments on trading style. its pretty late here but i will write this. i started trading in 05 lost a lot. went back no trading for 2 years. Laast yr just traded RYDEX funds with very good success rate . Made around 20% per yr. i followed a yahoo group poor2rich which is a very laid back group.
very simple startegy - buy after a pullback. wait for first +ve day and then hold for 7 days. on 7th day toggle to short or cash wait for pullback and repeat. works like wonder with rydex funds.

as my acount grew i was worried that i might have serious draw down so was looking for option and stumbled upon this site. Initially option was a strict NO-NO. as i heard almost everyone losses i option. so started very cautiously. just 1 contract. had a few hits last 3 weeks. there are some losses which i am still holding.

I am still debating should i follow options on stock or use IWM instead. I already know poor2rich technique works. still researching

Bill,
Sounds to me like you need to find a trading style. You have come to the right place.

Cheers,
Arty

Berk,
I have $100 bucks that says you will be challenged on this blog in either a good or bad way in the next 10 days. Moreover, it will hurt your feelings and you will change your approach. at least with respect to your blog entries Quality or frequency.

When I win that bet and if you are up for the next bet I will take the other side of your INDEX position whatever you may choose. Up to 4 ESH08 positions + or - you decide. An opportunity to win your money back.

Your thoughts.

Cheers,
Arty the One Man Party

i think more of a trading vechile. i like jeffs idea of using option. specially OTM option where sometime he says full premium at loss. I am lousy trader when it comes to taking losses. I wont take it so easy. and only way to beat is OTM where full money goes to 0. It will take long time before i learn to take loss at correct point without fighting with myself.

My research is now more about what options to buy. i look at POT and MOS these are having insane premiums. i dont know how to trade this.

I think once we start trending this would be better environment to trade

OAs,

I have been away for a few days but still trading. I have felt the pain as most have but realized that I must control the number of positions I have open, my max risk (never-ever over 2 percent of my entire portfolio), always balance my calls and puts based on current market sentiment, and never-ever lower my Stops once I compute them!!! This alone has helped me to exceed my expectations these last few years and make steady - reliable profits month after month. I would also submit that the hype of the group-think can often cause one to trade more as well as violate one's own trading plans. I think the group is healthy if controlled and managed to not cause you to do things you would not normally do without practice/planning. I also think that most retail traders try to trade with accounts that are underfunded (below 25K) which adds stress and prevents from trading some strategies such as day Trading when the markets are the way they are of late.

Sorry for rambling - Jeff and all the other OAs - THANKS for a great site!!! None better on the web!!!

DG,

Thanks for looking at my MEE trade. I saw it breaking out of a horizontal resistance area on volume more than it being an ascending triangle. The day I took the trade it was also moving with volume off of several days of horizontal support at $40. For me, the trade failed when the strong move out of the resistance area failed the next day. It said to me that the buyers were not there to follow through with the move.

There's a peek inside my trading brain. Be careful, the echoes can be deafening.

I'm posting this in here as nobody responded in the earlier post. Please help.
----------------------
Hey guys,
Do you see DRYS breaking out of bull flag with higher volume?

CNQ: Breakout of bull flag too, but volume is not impressive. Any takers out there?

AGU: Same as CNQ

Pls give me some comments on these potential stocks. Thx