Heavy Metal
Thursday, March 6, 2008 at 08:46AM I'm surprised to see the market shave off this many points ahead of tomorrows jobs report. As always, financials are leading the declines, but I am left wondering how much lower they will go.
I'm thinking that the XLF has to bottom at $24
Looking across most stocks right now, I am finding it difficult to locate downtrending stocks that are overbought near a resistance level to buy puts on. Therefore I am forced to continue riding my existing positions down to their target prices, until I find more stuff to short. My puts in financials (LM, PFG, PRU, XL, AIG) and healthcare (HUM, CVH) are doing well, but the big dogs today are BYI, WBD, GVA, OEH, CMG, USM and CPHD.
At the same time I am not trying to overload my stack of bullish positions, but as you feel the pulse of the market here, I find it hard not to. I will tell you this much, if you are shopping for bullish positions here, look no further than the metal stocks.
PCU- Like the set-up.
CLF- Deserves another look. There are not too many stocks trading this close to their highs
ACH- Looks like the bottom is in.
FCX- Approaching those highs...
CMP- Not a metal producer, but tack this on to Tuesday's Ag reco.
What has me in the best of moods today, is that most of my bullish positions commodities(GLD, DBA, UNG) and agriculture (CF, MOS, POT) are all holding up. I am seeing a few small melt downs in CALM, KWK, MTL, etc...but none worth closing out yet.
So here we sit at the lows, waiting for some labor data tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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Reader Comments (236)
Let's re-gain focus and get back to the market now.
In the meantime, I am working on a solution to how chat and forums are structured here. My attendance will be spotty starting in about an hour; FYI.
Thanks Jeff.
Focus is gaining.
Berkshire
Berk, I 'looked' at your last post. With that, I picture this person in this dark smoke filled room with his stock ouija board & smoking something not quite approved by our government.
Anyway, many of the stock comments posted here I very seriously look at but let's think... yours? Are you real - you a just having fun typing aren't you?
Anyway, "go figure."
I think this is market related...Breadth is working towards the second 9:1 negative close in 1 week. We still have a few hours to go, but 9:1 is nice.
Berkshire
The 1-day chart on DBA is about the ugliest shit I have ever seen.
DBA? Holding up?
LM isn't cracking down past 64 finding good suppport there is seems
The first 15 min of trading have more volatility.
Does that explain why the options get more expensive at that time, versus when a stock is at the same price intraday?
Thanks
F2T,
I enjoy the chat when the Ouija board works like it is supposed to.
I also hope you might be willing to tip the hand a little bit on your premium selling when I get a little room under my belt.
Berkshire
Raimo,
Despite what Jodi said, I did not say you were 60. Only parts of you are 60, many of your teeth are very young!!
I don't see DBA rebounding to the trend line based on all this profit taking
DBA- talk about basing... it is holding up between 40/43. It's staying within that range and hasn't dropped below 40.50 yet.
liz
DBA-
$41 is a line I am watching over the last 10 days or so.
Jodi,
If you can give me a walkthrough of how to put a picture on my profile, I would gladly work towards it.
Berkshire
Sam,
Pretty much.
Berkshire
Jeff,
I have heard you say in previous comments that you use a platform ("IT"?) for quickly flipping through your charts/watchlists/stock screens by viewing the thumbnails. What platform do you use that has this feature?
Thanks for all the help.
I am still liking ECA here. Bull flag breakout retest. Approaching new highs.
Jrs,
"IT" is typically refering to InvesTools. If you are a student, you can organize a portfolio with thumbnail charts, so you don't have to flip through each individual chart.
Hope that helps.
Berkshire
Jeff,
I was looking the metals this morning on my watchlist...
thinking the same thing. At least I feel I am starting to spot the opportunities.
I was wondering about ACH it caught my attention.
When YOU PUT THE FIBO on it (plus a short term up trend trend line) it does start to look pretty good
Thanks
On the important matter of pictures...
My new comment/forum/chat ideas will allow you to add a profile picture and post images ( I think ).
Sean,
i love u too....but Jodi more!
Doji...long.,...
Signing off for now...
I'll be back after the Marketcast.
Thanks to whomever mentioned CTRP. It is a great E/E entry like you mentioned. The Fibs are supporting this one nicely as well.
Jeff,
You bring up a good point. I have noticed on these sell off days horizontal lines hold up while the rising ones are violated easily, only to have subsequent days to rebound and resume the upward trend.
Jeff,
Would you add to a losing DBA position over here at the 41 support? This was a strategy Berkshire mentioned yesterday in regards to ESRX. I was wondering what you thought of it.
Brain,
Don't let me offend you, but what market are you looking at that is uptrending? From what I understand we need higher high and higher lows.
I a merely trying to learn, please don't give me a spanking.
Berkshire
So close......
Berkshire,
Thanks.
SHLD looks like it's breaking out of a descending triangle to the downside. Anybody concur?
I'm unable to view any of your Greatest Hits. Is it just me?
SuperMario,
Don't let me offend you. I would prefer (personally) to see a descending triangle at the bottom of the trend if it is in fact going to be a triangle. I am bearish on it also, and can see this being an entry from a base. It should provide nice EE, but make sure you watch that volume. Looks pretty low and decreasing.
Hope I didn't offend you.
Berkshire
SuperMario....I was just about to post the same thing! I'm seriously looking at jumping on this one. There isn't much volume today but prior days have been diminishing as well.
JCP has made me so much money today that I may have to find a store to visit.(not shop!)
Lis,
Same here
Berk
I find it humorous how you alway call Brian "Brain". It reminds me of that brain that lived in a jar from the Ninja Turtles.
Berk,
I entered a trade on DBA based on the 30mos chart and todays action is below a diagonal uptrend line yet above Jeff's line in the sand of 41. I think.
You are correct the broad market shows a down trend. (humor).
Ya,
I can't argue that DBA is in a downtrend. At least not yet. Was just making sure.
Berkshire
Mike - what was your criteria for entering that bearish JCP trade? I'm having a hard time seeing the reason on a chart.
SupermarioVa,
I don't really see the triangle.
How about Pinky and the Brain.
For future reference BRIAN, I apologize for calling you Brain, as I am sure it will continue.
Berkshire
Mike,
where was the entry?? Nicely done. Next time throw me in front of this one...
Berkshire
Jeff said -
"DBA - $41 is a line I am watching over the last 10 days or so."
Would you say $41 is a good entry point? I've been watching this line too (great minds think alike and all that) and nibbling at some more calls.
Step, Would you mind telling me what option your going w/ on CTRP if any? thanks
SHLD is looking weak. Thanks for the heads up. The subprime shopper is not shopping. Blue light special anyone?
For All who participated in the ESRX discussion yesterday, I thank you.
When we meet next, I really will buy a round of milkshakes.
Seems I might be pulling out of the slump.
Berkshire
Jym:
Base of triangle at about 96, slope starting at about 110 on 2/1 and sloping down to about 101 on 2/28.
DBA, POT and many other stocks bouncing up and down over the past week or so have been great for selling ATM covered calls on, buying them back cheaply and reselling them again.
Stan
Berk, no offense taken. Glad to hear the input from a regular poster like yourself. Thanks. :)
Berk & Step,
No prob on the Brain thing. I've been called worse, when I was cold calling for $ in Long Island. Hell I'd schedule appts. 30min from the Merril office and the people would not even be home. Not a smart way to make money.
Typo on my part it's the 3mos not 30mos chart.