I love it. Market conditions like this get me all amp'd up. Thanks for all the post Jeff. You have really helped enhance my style.

Jejj, my brother, up late with me. Thanks for the heads up.
What is your crystal ball saying about the jobs report ? Is 1270 in sight with some bad #'s

I thought I'd be the only one checking OA at this hour!

We're definitely cracking lower tomorrow!

resident OA insomniac here...this news should help me sleep! Tomorrow will be very interesting.

3 am in Salt Lake City and I find myself looking at booking a Carribean cruise for the family paid for by thursdays action. Maybe fridays action can pay for my drinks on board!

Thanks for all you do Jeff. I learn so much here.

DMS,

On the GS 5 year chart (prophet) I simply drew a line from the low at the far left of the chart (Jan 03) which then touches 2 points in Aug 04, 3 pts in May 05, and then this week where it pierced the line and closed about 8 points below it.

Thank you Jeff for all the guidance and work you do.
Maybe a clue of whats coming in the morning here in the US.

Jon from Union City, CA.

The SP futures aren't off that much overnight....hmmm

Yesterday's action might have been already pricing in today's possible crappy jobs report. Just a thought.

Beach Girl - not to be funny but every time I here the claim that its priced in I would just once like someone explain to me the thought process they'd gone through in calculating how exactly they did that. I personally think its bollocks and just a catch all claim to ignore the obvious that we all play in the biggest casino on the planet and its all about THE MONEY!!!

What is hard to understand about "priced in"? It is what they are anticipating to happen. As you say it is all about the money. I didn't wait for a major builder to go bankrupt before I bought puts on XHB.

My point is that it would not surprise me at all to see the market trade fairly flat today (flat being only 100 point intraday swing) if the jobs report comes out negative but spike up hard if there is any small perceived surprise.

will the ag sector be dragged down if the market plunges?

SNP gapping down?

Bill - its not understanding the concept that's at issue its believing that they can put, uniformally, a $price to it when the market is one of such huge complexity.

Beach - you could well be right by the way.

Jacksoo,
Now I understand your casino comment. But, anytime anything is bought/sold that is the value at that point in time. We may not agree with that price, but it is what it is. People make good money giving their opinion on what stuff is worth, without ever owning it. My favorite example is the talking head on CNBC pimping a stock. Then they put up the analyst disclosure and neither he, his family or company owns it. As Jeff once said, never turn on the sound when watching CNBC.

Well, here comes the PPT - increasing liquidity, putting a damper on the bear party.

Sabre Bill,

Maybe the value at which the market is trading at that point in time is reflecting the psychological mindset of the people pushing the sell in anticipation of today's report. Maybe they want to be first in line.

I agree on the CNBC sound. It has burnt me several times before I finally learned my lessons. New Poster. Love the Blog. Keep up the good work Jeff. Made me 110% in the last two weeks. Love It!!!!

DrDirt,

Looks like PTR ans SNP will have good days.

Ax, It should be a surprise thnig, like when we wipe out all the gains from jobs numbers. The only reason I am skeptical about what you said on the $VIX is that you were asking it to go from outside bottom 2.0 bollinger to outside upper 2.0 (a breakout would be above that) in less than half the amount of time it normally takes. IMO, $VIX has done everything required (except breakout...yet) to say it is going higher. I know there is strong resistance, but the indexes are breaking lower, $VIX should be breaking higher.

My personal thoughts was $VIX would breakout as we break our Jan low. Seems "logical" to me. However, we are certainly ahead of time on this one.

Berkshire

Doji,

Unfortunately, increasing liquidity without a buyer (bank that can "afford" to pay it back) doesn't do much good, as many of the US and foreing "auctions" have told.

The PPT will try, but I am not giving it too much credit. Only delaying the inevitable (at this point, with the decesions the GOV is making, it is inevitable, unfortunately).

Berkshire

but all the banks do is take the money and shove prop up their numbers - they're loaning it out and thats the big problem - the fed is bailing the banks

Apparently the market didn' like the idea of the liquidity. No wonder, we keep using the same bad idea that nobody used the first time. Seems like a brilliant solution to me.

I don't' know why we don't get the whole "priced in" thing. One would assume, with all the jobs cuts, that the market might know the report should be bad.

It should be an interesting day. Remember, things can stay overbought or oversold for a long time.

Axman,

Some people might be scared now.

Berkshire

Well, there go the futures.... down 1% already.

wow - surprise surprise jan and feb neg numbers dec numbers reduced by 50% - and what results did the dec numbers drive in dec mkt yeah up up up - if i made 50% errors in my work i'd be shot, and deservedly so - not surprisng people feel a little manipulated with this mkt

No, the fed is offering a life preserver with a snake on it. If the banks take the money, (Like the Buffett/AMBAC thing) the US gov will only accept the best debt, the only debt the bank can make money on. Essentialy they get a 28 day grace period to raise money to cover their losses.

Fortunately, so far, the US gov has not taken any completely hazardous steps (like assuming the bad debt).

Berkshire

Jacksoo,

Stock Newsletter writers and Meteorologists are the only people that can be consistantly wrong, and still keep their job.

Fortunately, I am in one of those fields...

Berkshire

Cameron,

Don't know when you're going, but enjoy the time off.

Berkshire

Futures down 15 to 1292. Next stop 1260, test Jan 22 low?

Thanks Berkshire. I'm out the door for my girlfriend's place in about half an hour, and we leave right after that. Since she's driving I'm thinking of the laptop and Verizon card as friends for a little while. I'm considering an early exit of at least a portion of my ESRX if there's a wild swing at open.

I'll say hi to Mickey for you. Would you like any of the characters' autographs?

Berk, couldn't agree with you more.

LM - Down big in premarket. Yessss!

Today is one of those days that I wish I could be around all day to watch. Well at least I'll have the morning.

Good luck today all!

Is there something wrong for being excited about more bad news from our ecnomy? I feel like the farther we go the more pain to (hopefully) change our ways.

Any predictions on where the VIX will close?

Ownputs,

Absolutely, and that one be a long stop, if we get a bounce...use it.

Loving it...YM -140, almost as much as we closed down yesterday. The world isn't as screwy as it seemed only earlier this week.

Berkshire

Hey Berkshire - thinking we go through Jan lows today?

With the SPX below 1310 and the Jobs Report looking really ugly as we are in a recession.

Today could be really BLOODY

Cameron,

I for one wouldn't mind the company, perhaps we can get you a good exit. But don't take my side over the side of your girl when you are about to spend a weekend with her.

Either she is very forgiving, or you will have a BAD weekend.

Berkshire

Good point VA Beach,
That reminds me of the movie Independence Day. Remember when all the people were partying on the roof with the signs "Welcome Aliens!". 5 minutes later they were all sucked up and dead. I laughed and laughed, never thought of them as investors before.

Berk
Agreed, my shorts are on fire, thank gawd my speedo today is asbestos.

Jacksoo,

Condsidering that is about 400-500 (DOW) points straight down, I am thinking it unlikely (though that would certainly get our $VIX breakout).

I could see a solid 300 down today, with some follow through on Monday. The average day the last time we had a sell signal is about 250, but for many days in a row and with wild upward swings as the short-lived rallies.

IMO, I see a lot of similarities between there and here, but I have been saying that.

I think it will be a lot worse than many expect, becuase many do not expect it to get worse. Denial is beautiful when you are short.

Berkshire

Berkshire

Berk
ICE to 120 today?

Sabre Bill,

Yes I do and it was hilarious. Dumbasses. You wouldn't catch me on that roof for any reason.

Jeff,

I think we need some Jeff Dunham humor today to end the week. Bring on Walter!

So we broke support. That sucks, I had so many good bull entrys from Tuesday. Well I hope I can average down some of my costs today, as well as keep up my profits on ESRX and EGN.

Cameron,

If I felt like our government was taking the proper steps to end this (not make it worse) then I would be upset. However our Government is only making things worse and refusing to take proper actions. Therefore, as Anti-American as it sounds, I am happy when the "truth" of the matter comes out. No shit the jobs are going to be bad. The only people that can't see that are on CNBC or Politicians.

That is why I tell my bearish side, because I would feel horrible if I didn't make people at least acknowledge that things can, and WILL, get worse.

Berkshire

Berk- A different take on Fed support-- The Gov't does not have a history of identifying good vs. bad debt.
Not advocating their involvement in either case, just pointing out that sometimes their assistance is not based on financial judgement but political influence, or political advantage with our money vs. sound judgement.

If you missed it, last night I posted a chart of $INDU to explain why I am bearish. Probably looks pretty smart right now.

It is on the last page of the HEAVY METAL thread. If you are interested...

Berkshire

Grasshopper,

Precisely the reason I don't expect any bail-outs to work.

However, our FED refuses to touch this Sub-prime shit, as it should.

It knows THAT is bad debt.

Berkshire

Is anyone watching GE? On a 2-year chart it looks like a pretty damn big Head and Shoulders pattern. About an 8 point move on a $33 stock. About a 25% move. It's a really long pattern though. Any opinions?