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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market.

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« Weekly Watchlist | Main | Alert: Non-Event »

Regarding Me and My Agriculture Position Today...

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Reader Comments (306)

Yeah! Got that!

liz

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:01AM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

That makes me feel much better!!!!!!!

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:05AM | Unregistered CommenterGeorge

Liz,

There is nothing wrong with simple analysis, especially if it works. KISS principle is there for a reason.

I have gotten comments before about the colors of the 3 bollingers that I use, but...that is me.

Aside from that all there is is 3 channels and 2 lines. Sorry for the lack of clarity (for you).

I keep a lot of information on my charts, because I believe the more information I have in my favor, the higher the probability for the trade.

Anyway. Thanks, and I am sorry it makes you eyes hurt.

Not trying to argue...

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:06AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

s***! the dog was fast asleep nearly killed the darn thing with a heart attack - should checked the vol first.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:07AM | Unregistered Commenterjacksoo

Liz,

If you want, I can post a chart without the bollinger bands, unless you managed to decipher the coded information.

Come on...Raimo would be upset if all the crystal balls were crystal clear.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:10AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Hi! I'm back again. Lost my connection yesterday so I couldn't participate. Glad to hear that Jeff put FCX on his list.

Berk,
Sorry I couldn't reply your last entry about SPY. I'm bull on it, I remembered Jeff told us to hold it until it reach somewhere around $148. But it has lost its' strength for a while now. I'm losing $250 per contract now. :(

Time to cut loss I guess. It's way pass my stop loss target @ $130.50. And today SPY broke its support on bollinger band so maybe it's going lower.

I'm looking for any suggestion here. Anyone still hold it?

Mosan

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:11AM | Unregistered CommenterMosan

bahawaha...that's hysterical

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:11AM | Unregistered CommenterDrDirt

Do you prefer colored or uncolored candles?

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:12AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

My boys are laughing hysterically, Jeff.

I am actually not feeling too much pain today. This has been a good week for me thanks to good entries and following my rules.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:13AM | Unregistered CommenterLaney

When the market went up instead of down this morning, I changed several of my stops to trailing stops. Saved me a little pain on these Ag stocks, though not all of it....not as painful as earlier this week though....

I'm just hesitant to enter into any new put positions at this level...high VIX and possible short covering at the end of the day? I'm just watching and noting stocks approaching support and resistance for Monday.

Thanks for all the info being shared here....

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:14AM | Unregistered CommenterWanna Bee

I'm delta -973 and liking the day

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:15AM | Unregistered CommenterDrDirt

Jeff or any OA,
I notice sometimes when you draw trendlines you go to a line chart as opposed to candles that show hi/low price. What advice can you give a newbie on this topic.
thanks,
dweeks

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:19AM | Unregistered Commenterdweeks

That was great.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:20AM | Unregistered CommenterDMS425

Laney,

I have has positions in these for a while now, so most of this action is a loss of unrealized gains.

Still sucks though...but the video made me feel better.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:20AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

Berk-
I can understand the chart it just makes my eyes water slightly. ;-)

I'm all for whatever works. And I do use colors on my charts too. Red for my out and green for my target. I also have my time frame on my chart and my entry and exit and sometimes I post notes regarding the stock.

I appreciate you sharing and I was giving you a bit of a hard time. It works for you and that's what important.

Now I'm going to go back to getting hit by multiple cars... and decide how I'm going to deal with the rest of the day.

liz

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:20AM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

DrDirt,

Is that unweighted Delta, or did you weight it to something?

(I am shocked, but you have me beat) I really figured I was the most bearish on the site.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:21AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

dweeks,

Line charts plot closing prices, and I try to use open/closing prices when drawing trendlines (not highs/lows). Sometimes showing the line chart helps to look beyond all the "chatter" (wide range days, discounting highs and lows).

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:23AM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

Dweeks,

Use whichever you like and works best.

Many of us use line charts (closes) when we are assessing breakouts. Other times, a candle chart works better.

Also depends on when you trade. If you trade end-of-day, line chart makes sense. If you trade intraday, sometimes candles make it easier to spot secondary support and resistance.

IMO

Play around with it a see which you like better.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:23AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Thanks Liz,

Glad you could decipher it. I forget about the older folks' eyes...

May I suggest stepping out of the intersection to avoid getting hit by multiple cars??

Stick with it.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:25AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

CALM is still a great entry, IMO. It has been up yesterday and today, even with the market being down.

I am sure that it is on most of your radar, but I just wanted to throw it out there in case it wasn't.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:26AM | Unregistered CommenterLaney

Actually I think that was me crossing the street...would you be looking to close out in POT & DE (which I am in)?

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:26AM | Unregistered CommenterRyan in Cowtown

Berk,

Are u still in ESRX?

Mosan

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:27AM | Unregistered CommenterMosan

My crystal ball is down today Berk with the Flu....I feel like the market looks....like crap....

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:27AM | Unregistered CommenterRaimo

Notice that the NORWAY BRIX is usully in the green on a list of European markets - any explanation? Also, don't see an ETF for Norway on Jeff's list - is there one?

Tom in
SC

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:27AM | Unregistered CommenterTom in SC

Berk
Dunno weighted..thats the delta number at the bottom of my TOS screen. I jumped out of MOS. MON, CF calls before the bell this am.,,,I'm only holding calls in NCC....wanna buy 'em?

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:27AM | Unregistered CommenterDrDirt

Can blame me for lossed on MOS and the massive bull put spread I took on it yesterday. This only ever happens when I buy a bull put spread.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:28AM | Unregistered CommenterMike

Berk-
Geez! I'm not that old! ;-)

liz

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:28AM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

I'm still short ESRX, I got 58 on my target

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:29AM | Unregistered CommenterDrDirt

Jeff,

That put a smile on my face. That's me in CF. At least I got the exit on DBA right. and so I continue to churn away. grrrr.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:29AM | Unregistered CommenterSarah

Bushy should be trying to save the market this afternoon (2:10ish).

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:29AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

The volume isn't above average on this sell of AG stocks.
And it isn't the end of the day yet.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:30AM | Unregistered CommenterSue G

Sue-
A lot of the stocks are just sitting on my exit lines. And the price movement isn't that much different than it would normally make. And you're right the volume isn't even above average. But it still hurts!

liz

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:31AM | Unregistered Commenterlizandgrant

I'm still in ESRX too. My profit target is when it reach $58.75. Not much different from you DrDirt

Mosan

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:32AM | Unregistered CommenterMosan

and yes, I missed that low. today was 58.74

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:33AM | Unregistered CommenterMosan

The question is are you buying DBA here or not?

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:35AM | Unregistered CommenterSia

Buyers will come back in for ag commodities when the fed cuts rates again and tanks the dollar even more. Foreign countries are buying grain in quantities now because it might be the best price they get for several months.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:36AM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Jeff

That video was me on all the up days the past few weeks. And wouldn't you know I added some longs yesterday!! Still strongly delta negative tho. Thanks for GILD yesterday.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:36AM | Unregistered CommenterOld_lefty

The exchanges look especially sick today. CME sitting at resistance, NYX below august lows, ICE breaking a trendline unless it rallies a little into the close.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:37AM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Die DE Die.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:43AM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Nate,

If you understand candle patterns, just check the FXE. As far as interest rates affecting currency values, I don't think we have settled that debate yet.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:43AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

Check out JCOM holding that shallow double
bottom mid-week breakout in this tape.
Beth Ann

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:47AM | Unregistered CommenterBeth Ann

Be careful with FCX and PCU here. They are at a high risk of a large down move, in my opinion.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:48AM | Unregistered CommenterTrader JH

Jeff,
Did you exit your ags? waiting for end of day?

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:48AM | Unregistered CommenterPoundcake

Dr. Dirt-
You mentioned getting out of calls before the AM bell. May I ask how you did that? (Other then before the close of the market the day before, obviously0,

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:49AM | Unregistered CommenterGrasshopper

BYI- I've enjoyed the ride down and I drew a line at 35 for support and had a sell order in. When it came within a dime or so and bounced up I sold out at 100% profit. Now I'm still looking at 35 as support and the Market Forecast is showing a bullish divergence. Volatility is high and so are premiums. I went ahead and sold March 35/30 bull puts for $1.15. Any movement below 35 and I'll bail out.
Stan

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:49AM | Unregistered CommenterStan Lake

This market is bad bad bad... I would use extreme caution and stay away from buying calls here because we'll likely have a panic selloff sometime within the next week. Don't be drawn in by the counter-trend bounces over the next couple weeks. That is just my opinion.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:49AM | Unregistered CommenterTrader JH

Head on a swivle. Put DE on my sell list waiting for retest, missing todays action.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:50AM | Unregistered CommenterBrian K

Grasshoper
I put in an order to sell at the bell, I'm sorry I didnt meant to imply I can trade after hours. I'm with a bank/broker. I worded that badly

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:50AM | Unregistered CommenterDrDirt

FCX downgraded today by Friedman Billings. Fight it if you want.

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:50AM | Unregistered Commenterjym

Trader,

That is a wise opinion. You should use the bounces to position to the short side.

IMO.

Berkshire

Fri, March 7, 2008 at 11:52AM | Unregistered Commenterberkshire.rockaway

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