Liz, I took MGM this morning. I got in at 57.50, so I have caught this move.
It encourages me greatly to see that I have almost the exact sma lines drawn as you do. I am "hoping" that it blazes through the 53.70-ish area and lands on 46. :-)
Her is what I see on MGM and I would love feedback to see if I am off my rocker. I see the gap but am not sure how that plays to the downside. Thanks for all input
Your chart says you understand how the gap plays in...Who do we believe.
The gap SHOULD do one of 2 things...1)Act as support (resistance) BEFORE reaching the top of the gap 2) Act as sup/res AFTER being filled.
Since there is nothing else to really act as a horizontal support, I see the best range within 45-35. I know that is a wide spread, but where else do you call it?
I can post a chart also, but it will be pretty cluttered, so I will refrain, unless requested.
Not this Cramer BSC thing again. I watched the show, I've read billions of posts on it. When I first watched the show I understood that it was money at BSC not invested in BSC stock, so when all these people started to criticize him for it, I was totally baffaled. Cramer just thought he was doing what was a responsible thing to do and NOT cause a run on the bank. He was not talking about BSC stock. He even had the guy who emailed the question call into the show to talk about it.
Perhaps a word or two for clarification could have been useful on Cramer's part. He could have said things like "investments, not own stock (4), etc" I mean, he is preaching to the entire cable-viewing public right? Which was the more responsible thing?
Hopefully the people with X,000,000s at BSC didn't need Cramer's advice in how to manage that. The viewers that might have a nice chunk of IRA or something in it really do care.
Kim- I was looking at FRO yesterday and debating... My trading plate is a bit full but I thought this looked good yesterday. It seems to make some fairly decent moves in a month time period.
I'm either just not quick enough, not performing the technicals correctly, or have been plain unlucky for some time now, but DRYS is kicking my butt. Discussion of DRYS by Raimo is in the message boards in case we need to move this discussion, but I took the long side at 70. Conservative target of $75. Stock gaps open this morning, touches $72.5, and is now sitting under my stop of $70.
My main question is, should I have taken profits near the open today? In hindsight, of course, but even the high wasn't close to my target price.
Is it normal to be this frustrated in these market conditions? I think I called for a medic last week but perhaps they got lost? Bah humbug.
As far as $INDU, I am still thinking (as Raimo was) that this will most likely turn to a higher low. We should get another advance for 500 or so points. THEN the REAL decline can start.
Ideally, I am looking for $VIX sell signal to shine out right about the top (somewhere between 12700 and 13200).
CHU Breaking symmetrical triangle today, imo. I entered this morning based on volume at that time. Small dotted line= 1yr trenline. Longer=2yr. trendline.
The past few weeks we have been trading at a 10point or less discrepancy...today we are high 30's. I know futures open up near a change, but is this telling us something.
I think your chart looks good (checked it out from the discussion board) but I think your stop is way too close. You haven't given it any room to move. On your chart you have a red line at 67.50 which makes more sense however, in my opinion if your price target is 75 and your red line stop is 67.50, that wouldn't be a two to one reward to risk.
If you set your stop as being 70 with a 75 price target that's an awesome r/r but looking at your chart, it says something different which probably means you have way too many contracts and that's why you're feeling this because the price action today is in line with what you already have on your chart.
Does this make sense? If not, we can discuss this in more detail on the DRYS section of the discussion board.
I know this isn't timely, but looking at the chart you have...The pattern looks something of a bear flag.
If you extend it to see other price action (on the chart you show, best shot at trend is sideways), you can see it is declining.
In fact, talk about some fractals...From the top 1 move down, 1 move sideways, 1 more move down to Jan lows. Then, 1 move up, 1 move down, 1 more move up (into the range of the previous sideways move). Then decline again, 1 move down, 1 move upish/sideways, 1 move down to Mar lows. Then, 1 move up, 1 move down, 1 move up into the range of the previous sideways move.
I would expect a decline into at least the 40 range, if not lower.
I think it makes sense. Gonna move to the DB for further analysis. Although I think you've solved one of my main problems. I might keep stops way too tight.
To be honest, I am not liking the odds of us breaking 12400. In fact, I think the decline should be pretty much finishing up, or at least an up leg should be in store fairly shortly.
38.2% of the move from 3/31 up is 12400. 50% (which I normally do not use) is 12459 (9 points lower than today's low).
The decline is looking weak, and like Jeff suggested, buying some dips might be in store.
FRO - I was considering this onthe breakout as well, but given the trannie are getting killed today, you may want to take a "wait & see" approach. Support may not hold.
You are rocking it today. Loving the VIP chart. I see the fractals like on DRYS. I like a rejection from the orange line down to the lower rising support.
Anyone see DBA close to confirming confirming double bottom on daily chart( plus RSI going over 50, and MACD line crossing over signal ,and price going above 50 MA )...maybe be worth watching
anyone else feeling the love on IGT? I see support at 38 and was looking to sell off half and let the rest run. My second tgt is 36.50 but was wondering about possibly going to 34. anyone else in? thoughts?
Reader Comments (225)
Damn Jeff,
Tea out the nose...Need a new keyboard.
Thanks...THAT WAS great. Rnd: 2...
Berkshire
This reminds me of the South West Airlines Commercial..
WHATA GETTA WAY!!!
OK----MTL now up over 12.
That is some funny shit!!!
Jeff
Classic take.
Eddie
LMAO!!! That was friggin hilarious!
Liz,
I took MGM this morning. I got in at 57.50, so I have caught this move.
It encourages me greatly to see that I have almost the exact sma lines drawn as you do. I am "hoping" that it blazes through the 53.70-ish area and lands on 46. :-)
FRO Providing a breakout retest entry today, imo. I entered yesterday.
http://screencast.com/t/fcxs72aA8eu
Thanks for posting your charts, Kim. I feel like I am on the right page when I see my lines in almost the same place as yours and Lizs'.:-)
Jason,
First of all, your Bollinger bands look like intestines. Ewwww! :-)
I think we are all seeing the same things. It looks good to hit our targets.
Liz, Berk, whomever,
Her is what I see on MGM and I would love feedback to see if I am off my rocker. I see the gap but am not sure how that plays to the downside. Thanks for all input
http://www.screencast.com/users/gbhardcore/folders/Jing/media/50b51119-f02e-4c9e-819f-5d327866619d
Jason,
Your chart says you understand how the gap plays in...Who do we believe.
The gap SHOULD do one of 2 things...1)Act as support (resistance) BEFORE reaching the top of the gap 2) Act as sup/res AFTER being filled.
Since there is nothing else to really act as a horizontal support, I see the best range within 45-35. I know that is a wide spread, but where else do you call it?
I can post a chart also, but it will be pretty cluttered, so I will refrain, unless requested.
Berkshire
Not this Cramer BSC thing again. I watched the show, I've read billions of posts on it. When I first watched the show I understood that it was money at BSC not invested in BSC stock, so when all these people started to criticize him for it, I was totally baffaled. Cramer just thought he was doing what was a responsible thing to do and NOT cause a run on the bank. He was not talking about BSC stock. He even had the guy who emailed the question call into the show to talk about it.
Laney,
yes they do, I will never see them the same again
Jason-
It cut off part of the link.
liz
Sia,
Perhaps a word or two for clarification could have been useful on Cramer's part. He could have said things like "investments, not own stock (4), etc" I mean, he is preaching to the entire cable-viewing public right? Which was the more responsible thing?
Hopefully the people with X,000,000s at BSC didn't need Cramer's advice in how to manage that. The viewers that might have a nice chunk of IRA or something in it really do care.
Too bad no-one cares about the little guy.
Berkshire
liz,
http://www.screencast.com/users/gbhardcore/folders/Jing/media/50b51119-f02e-4c9e-819f-5d327866619d
Jeff ... like you said - MUTE!
Watch but don't listen.
Very good advice.
Also funny.
Kim-
I was looking at FRO yesterday and debating... My trading plate is a bit full but I thought this looked good yesterday. It seems to make some fairly decent moves in a month time period.
liz
I'm either just not quick enough, not performing the technicals correctly, or have been plain unlucky for some time now, but DRYS is kicking my butt. Discussion of DRYS by Raimo is in the message boards in case we need to move this discussion, but I took the long side at 70. Conservative target of $75. Stock gaps open this morning, touches $72.5, and is now sitting under my stop of $70.
My main question is, should I have taken profits near the open today? In hindsight, of course, but even the high wasn't close to my target price.
Is it normal to be this frustrated in these market conditions? I think I called for a medic last week but perhaps they got lost? Bah humbug.
Jason-
For some reason I keep getting page not found. I was able to open up Kim's link (VA Beach Girl).
liz
Berk,
How low on the DOW do you think we are going??
Have you been watching SNP fall? It just dropped below 90 with a nice little volume spike. Just keep on dropping.
liz
Yup,
was stupid not to take that one (SNP) on Monday.
If you missed SNP, there is PTR and PBR too.
As far as $INDU, I am still thinking (as Raimo was) that this will most likely turn to a higher low. We should get another advance for 500 or so points. THEN the REAL decline can start.
Ideally, I am looking for $VIX sell signal to shine out right about the top (somewhere between 12700 and 13200).
Berkshire
Berk,
I know you like the Fibs. What price would your 78.6 retracement be on MGM.
Grumpy
CHU Breaking symmetrical triangle today, imo. I entered this morning based on volume at that time. Small dotted line= 1yr trenline. Longer=2yr. trendline.
http://screencast.com/t/1q8tjCbgNd9
Grumpy, from which side?
I think I see what you are saying. Bottom of the gap if drawn from 8/06 lows to recent highs.
However, I would recommend changing 78.6 (which is not a fib number) to 76.4 (which is).
Berkshire
Why is there such a gap in the futures today...
The past few weeks we have been trading at a 10point or less discrepancy...today we are high 30's. I know futures open up near a change, but is this telling us something.
Thanks.
Berkshire
Berk,
Wierd...that was the default in my prophet charts.
...and yet Cramer has a loyal following. Go figure!!
Jorge-
I think your chart looks good (checked it out from the discussion board) but I think your stop is way too close. You haven't given it any room to move. On your chart you have a red line at 67.50 which makes more sense however, in my opinion if your price target is 75 and your red line stop is 67.50, that wouldn't be a two to one reward to risk.
If you set your stop as being 70 with a 75 price target that's an awesome r/r but looking at your chart, it says something different which probably means you have way too many contracts and that's why you're feeling this because the price action today is in line with what you already have on your chart.
Does this make sense? If not, we can discuss this in more detail on the DRYS section of the discussion board.
liz
Jorge,
I know this isn't timely, but looking at the chart you have...The pattern looks something of a bear flag.
If you extend it to see other price action (on the chart you show, best shot at trend is sideways), you can see it is declining.
In fact, talk about some fractals...From the top 1 move down, 1 move sideways, 1 more move down to Jan lows. Then, 1 move up, 1 move down, 1 more move up (into the range of the previous sideways move). Then decline again, 1 move down, 1 move upish/sideways, 1 move down to Mar lows. Then, 1 move up, 1 move down, 1 move up into the range of the previous sideways move.
I would expect a decline into at least the 40 range, if not lower.
Sorry to not have seen this sooner.
Berkshire
Kim-
Clicking over to the line chart there seems to be a horizontal level of support around 21. In my opinion this makes this a very nice e/e.
liz
Berk,
$INDU down to say the 12,350 area??
Liz,
I think it makes sense. Gonna move to the DB for further analysis. Although I think you've solved one of my main problems. I might keep stops way too tight.
Liz, Laney and Kim,
What a joy to see you guys still plugging away and making bucks! You're consistent and this blog needs your sanity ... Keep it up!
And Liz, I totally agreed with your earlier MGM chart posting ... Right on!
SD is breaking out. It is too far to take at this time, wait for a retest if it comes.
Jon
Berk
Ok, I'm all in..what is your take upon the futures....is your rally coming sooner than later?
Eddie
PS. Thank you for all the help today.
Dan,
To be honest, I am not liking the odds of us breaking 12400. In fact, I think the decline should be pretty much finishing up, or at least an up leg should be in store fairly shortly.
38.2% of the move from 3/31 up is 12400. 50% (which I normally do not use) is 12459 (9 points lower than today's low).
The decline is looking weak, and like Jeff suggested, buying some dips might be in store.
Berkshire
Eddie,
The index seems to be beating it's head on some serious support.
I see a rally approaching.
Berkshire
Eddie,
I am pretty sure (at this point) that it should get us to new highs, but I will fill you in as the pattern forms.
Berkshire
FRO - I was considering this onthe breakout as well, but given the trannie are getting killed today, you may want to take a "wait & see" approach. Support may not hold.
VA,
You are rocking it today. Loving the VIP chart. I see the fractals like on DRYS. I like a rejection from the orange line down to the lower rising support.
Berkshire
Anyone see DBA close to confirming confirming double bottom on daily chart( plus RSI going over 50, and MACD line crossing over signal ,and price going above 50 MA )...maybe be worth watching
Berk
Thank you.
Eddie
One more...
VIP Orange line is descending resistance line. Horizontal solid line at $30 is decent support area.
http://screencast.com/t/QRimuvgEO
jeff
april or may options on PCLN
Berk
Did I read you correctly calling puts on PBR? Not sure why..
What is your thinking there?
anyone else feeling the love on IGT?
I see support at 38 and was looking to sell off half and let the rest run. My second tgt is 36.50 but was wondering about possibly going to 34.
anyone else in? thoughts?