This One's For the Homies
Wednesday, December 16, 2009 at 03:59PM I've been pumping the homebuilders since last week, expecting a significant move to get underway this week, which coincidentally, started yesterday, but confirmed today. I've been long this group since Monday, and like how things are starting to heat up. My top 3 picks we've been following on TA Live have been...
HOV: This was the perfect set-up of the bunch, in one of the higher beta plays.
TOL: One of the few homebuilders on a buy signal.
BZH: Came out swinging yesterday ahead of today's housing data. Already up 23% in two days.
I think this is a great time to be long, with a time horizon that extends out til the end of Q1 next year. I always like these stocks at the year end/new year. The Homies always rip in January.
Take a look at a longer term chart of RYL, one of the companies that turned the corner first out of the long dated downward trend and check out the set-up.
You can see a new trend starting to emerge, and the entry on this entire group, even after the last 2 days is still low risk, compared with what they can do from here. However, if you are looking to capture the majority of this move, don't gravitate toward near dated options. Get some that are good til March or April. Sit on them for a while. We'll chat about them in a few months, when they've tripled in value.
In the meantime, I have nothing to say about "the market." I'm slowly getting back to that state of mind where it is cool not to care, so long as you are making money.
OA
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Response: More Market Calls ConfirmedFirst off, a hat tip to DHI for getting their $hit together and posting their first profitable quarter
Reader Comments (12)
Jeff;
Thanks for the fantastic setups.....Also I want to mention that I regard you as an individual of very high caliber...so I am sure you will be successful in any situation.
Good luck....
akini55
Homebuilders – I agree & my trade has been with BZH / on & off since Apr. Mainly, I trade it in my six grandkids education accts due to its cheap price. I also trade HD, only cuz I spend a lot of money with them, so I try and get some of it back. CAB is another fav of mine.
What I really want to share is my 1000 DMA. I keep it on my charts (in white) cuz some stocks react to it - take HD or RIMM. Maybe it’s just my quirk for me but sometimes it shows me something happening and other times, it’s just a blur on the charts. Other than that, I look at candles, patterns, and volume – 15 min/daily/weekly and sometimes monthly.
Anyway, back on a plane tomorrow to Arizona for a few days and on to my West Coast grandkids for Christmas. Lastly, I highly recommend the New York Radio City Christmas play if in town.
Jeff , Thank You for satisfying my curiosity on the Home Builders. I saw the move on Tues. but it wasn't confirmed till Wed. As you always stated it is a " Market of Stocks" .
On a Pullback? http://screencast.com/t/NDlmNDI2
Is the selling over with on BBY? http://screencast.com/t/NTQ5OTFiN
BBY is holing up incredibly well considering the market today. As long as $41 holds through the day it looks like a buy. Or, one could take it and get out if it breaks down below $41. I think I'll wait and see.
MTL looks good too, today may be a good day to get in these.
Trading - gotta love it. At the Allentown, PA airport and trading - better then a crossword puzzle. Heck, back to my 1K DMA, what will GS do next?
El Gaupo, I'm glad to get a second chance on those positions.
Free to Trade, If it's up to Meridith Whitney she wold like to see the Banking Sector fail. I'm sure she's talking her book when see meets with the press. Wish I had such pull. lol
The XHB was up today.
Nice!
OA
dude this This One's For the Homies - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading mind blowing.
I prefer this too www.source2update.com