Take a Sip On That Note...
Thursday, December 17, 2009 at 04:45PM I know I just got done shrugging off "the market" and this range yesterday, but I am going to throw up a few charts, in order to compare the action points...if you are into that sort of thing. Bear with me.
The S&P is still off it's lows by about 8 points, as seen below.
Still a good distance between where we sit now, and the lower level of the range. Let's move on to the Dow...
Looking at the Dow, it finds support in roughly 50 points from here. That's the equivalent of a moderately lower open tomorrow. Next, the Nasdaq.
The Nasdaq has been a source of relative strength lately. With RIMM's after hours action, take your cues from tech. Speaking of relative strength, I present...the Russell.
Trend support is tougher to connect here, which is why I've outlined the recent relative highs, which were broken this week, and held as support today. I think this is an important signal in regards to the relative strength small caps have shown lately. Small caps are still one of my top places to shop for new trading ideas at the moment.
When you look across the indices, I think the S&P is tougher to gauge once you see where all the other indices are in terms of support/resistance. With RIMM's after hours action, this might help to lift tech out of the gates tomorrow. With the Dow so close to support, and the recent strength of the Russell, I still think it makes sense to buy stocks down, especially into weakness at the open tomorrow.
I will point out that the XHB was up today, and so was RYL. Not to mention, TOL, DHI, and MTH were down less than a percent. So was the IYR and several individual components therein (and RYN, BEE, SHO, ARE, BMR, PSA, MPG, LSE, BXP, LXP, MAC and SKT). There is a storm brewing here that looks ready to run.
Last chart of interest I have for tonight is UNG.
This was the biggest technical event I found setting up today. You might have issues tracking technicals in this instrument, but check the continuous futures contract. A move above $6 would be deadly, if you are short.
I took the opportunity to average down my UNG position in the $9's, and I like it's potential from here.
I'll leave on that note, encouraging you to buy stocks tomorrow. See you then.
OA
Reader Comments (9)
XHB - Bullish flag? The best entry was beginning of November.
RYL - I'm split on this one - looks like a good long but that diagonal at 19.5 scares me.
TOL - if it does a retest of 17.75 it might make a good long
DHI - looks like a decent long
MTH - no opinion
IYR - at 2008 resistance - not a great long and not a great short either though
RYN - great short two days ago - don't chase
BEE - could wiggle further up
SHO - looked like it would break down in November and just went sideways - I would not take this thing either way right now.
ARE - looks tired
BMR - short at 16.5
PSA - no good entry
MPG - I'd exit at 2.50 - otherwise looks good if you're in already
LSE - might snap up short term - might make a great short if it gets to 5.25.
BXP - I would not go long but if you must cut at 72.5
LXP - not a good long - if you must take profits at 6.00
MAC - nice triangle - long at 29 for a push into 40?
SKT - no opinion
BTW, I can't get anyone on ES to post symbols - frustrating. You're among the few out there right now who keeps on working. So many great setups right now - I think folks are simply worn out or in X-Mas mode
Oh yeah - and UNG looks like a juicy short to me.
In keeping with the holiday season, I thank you, Lord, for Jeff -- his eye, his mind, his generosity and his charts. I felt awful lonely out there in the market today, holding close to my sweet IWM along with HOV among others, and letting my plodders go free. I feel much stronger now, knowing Jeff's courage is at my back. Blessings to him, to All, and Amen!
Jeff I share your sediments, But being a little more risky in and out trader. I'm looking at the purveyors of Tech. BBY & WMT as mentioned on the conference call of Rimm's earnings. I feel the are both at an inflection point or very close to a reversal?
http://screencast.com/t/NGM5NTUwZD
http://screencast.com/t/ODVhNWRjMGM
Disclosure I'm in BBY with a tight stop.
Carol, Jehovah- Jireh, Amen
Off to the Apple for the day, Good Luck with your trading all.
Thanks for the post OA
I have been a stranger to the TA blog.
I have to look at my tech watchlist after the RIMM news.... BRCM
Is 1087.5 in in the spx in our near future. Man I'm wishing I was short something.
XLF ROOF TOP PATTERN UPDATE: 8>)
http://screencast.com/t/NWMwYTIzNTc
I am pretty much in a wind down for the Holidays with big gains for the full year. The following sums up my outlook over the next few weeks:
Historically, holidays are often accompanied by trend changes in the equity markets. The most noticeable of these is the yearend holidays. Trends that remain in place past November's Thanksgiving holiday usually continue until the beginning of the New Year. Then in the first or second week of January the trend ends. This phenomenon was clearly observable in 2008 and 2009, and in four of the past five years.
For me, it's very difficult to keep the charts turned off and not trading – I am a big seller of premiums, letting time do it’s magic. But, there is nothing wrong with a break from trading and enjoying friends and family this Christmas. So that is my game plan and it is posted on my computer.
Merry Christmas and Peace on Earth!