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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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Bring The Noise

The McClellan came through and "Mutual Fund Monday" went as planned. Stocks lifted, they held, and they resumed trend. Sure stocks were only able to recover the "hot lunch" they were delivered on Friday, on weaker volume nonetheless. However, breadth was good, which is the first time I've said that in weeks. As far as I can tell, we should be able to drift higher from here, and see sectors separate a little. In other words, Bend Over, Here It Comes Again, Shorts (BOHICAS).

I'm 99% long right now, and still plan on taking a few more positions in the next few days, and lightening existing positions on the way up. In the next few days I plan on initiating a few shorts, but not until the sun, moon, and the stars align if you know what I mean. A little balance ought to do me some good.

As for today, I jumped on the Miners, Large Cap Tech, and Small Cap names. The Miners are in a great spot right now, especially with Gold trading above the 1065-1085 range. The group is ready to rip, as witnessed today. This is as oversold as the miners have been in ages.

On another note, my casino plays tore it up! Long calls in WYNN and LVS.

I am wanting to nibble in materials, specifically steel. However, I'm going to see if I can get a better entry than chasing my favorite names (AKS, MTL, STLD) up 5-7%.

In closing, I still like oil, which we touched on last Thursday. Crude traded well into the bell, and the entry point is still admirable, even if you didn't feel me last week.

On that note, I'm out.

Oh, and by the way, if you do in fact stop by this site, throw me a bone. Say hello. Don't just visit and bail. I'm back up over 10k hits per day, which is dick compared to how this site dominated its competition, back in the day, and yet, I get no love. Throw me an idea, a chart, or just flat out throw something. 

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Reader Comments (47)

How do you look for gold companies? I was searching over at finviz and started off with this screen.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=cap_microover,ind_gold&o=-recom

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 06:32PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid

Consider the bone thrown.

Copper tagged 3 and holding support- was prev res as well as a fibo retracement. Bounces in copper names (FCX) coming.

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 06:52PM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Place

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_gold&o=-volume

I narrowed it down to AUY, NG, GBG, RGLD, GRS...maybe BVN, EGO. Bought calls on NG.

OA

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 06:58PM | Registered CommenterOption Addict

<3 Anthrax!

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 07:08PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

OA,
Thanks for the post! - I am in WYNN - so thanks for that. Heavy in oil, nat gas KWK... (and beer at the moment)

Shit I had this email sitting on my machine that I never sent to you a couple of days before you took the KWK trade blurting out the volume. So that tells me that I owe a lot of what I know about trading to you. I have learned a TON from you and Eric! - so thanks...

You are kicking some ass with the casinos - So between MGM, LVS and WYNN they must have they made your first quarter pretty good!

10,000 hits day - is that right? That's some traffic.

OK so here's my challenge to our fellow OA bloggers and watchers on here. Share a trade set up. Leave a comment. Share the love.
Like many others, I was a lurker. I was afraid to say something that would embarrass myself. Its funny over on the TA site, there was a guy like that and now his this unbelievable trader. I have learned SO MUCH from him (da'Pope).

So share what's on your mind. What's everybody looking at?

Here's what's on my radar ag stocks:
IPI (look at that freakin' volume) and POT, MOS, MON - so if these break their downward channel I MAY trade them.

So what are you looking at? : )

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 07:39PM | Unregistered CommenterTrade Dawg

OA,

Check out GE. I see a symmetrical triangle that broke out on strong volume at the start of the New Year and now is retesting. The ATR is around 2% so I was thinking March ITM calls. Stop around 15.90. This is one has displayed some serious relative strength as of late.

My other idea is WGO. Another symmetrical triangle brewing- good spot to anticipate the pattern. PnF just produced a buy signal. Nice volume decrease throughout the pattern. I also like the fact that my RSI and MACD indicators are displaying the same triangle as the price action. The pattern measures a very healthy 3 point move which lines up very well with the recent highs. A little pricey for a common stock trade but the potential reward might be worth the capital tie up. IMO.

What say you??

P.S. Anyway I may buy a Winnebago if LVS keeps it up. Put some Trading Addict Logos on that badboy start touring the country. Keep dem trades comin' : )

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 07:58PM | Unregistered CommenterAXman

very nice pick on wynn!

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:08PM | Unregistered Commenter-b.

AxMan,
I like that Winnebago idea. - LOL
When you mentioned GE it made me think of CMCSA ahead of earnings. Look at Friday's action when everything was taking a noise dive.

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:13PM | Unregistered CommenterTrade Dawg

I'm on my way to a hoops game or I'd be hanging out win ya'll. Thanks for the "shout out" guys.

OA

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:25PM | Unregistered CommenterOption Addict via Motorola Droid

AXman,

You likely don't know this, and not saying he wouldn't do it but Jeff hates trading the Dow 30, just an FYI haha.

CHK bounced perfectly off of $25. Lots of things are below their 50 day MA's which is definitely a change from more recent action and makes me a little hesitant but overall we are definitely overall in a "buy the dip" market. Just my opinion of course. :-) I don't necessarily care about moving averages but others pay attention to them so I likely should take note a little also.

Glad the site is back.

Side note is Trading Addicts added to the Auto trade on TOS yet? I may join again but now that I have employment I probably shouldn't be trading and monitoring TA all the time haha.

Ben

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:31PM | Unregistered CommenterBen

OK, so I am posting again...
But I was looking at PAAS and SLW and silver looks like it could do something in the next few days.

OA... Now GNK looks good - even though the $BDI is still dropping.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$bdi

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:33PM | Unregistered CommenterTrade Dawg

Ben,

Of course I know Jeff doesn't like the Dow 30 I have the "Greatest Hits" memorized LOL. Patterns are so hard to find lately I got to call out the few that I see otherwise I start to feel bad about myself.

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 08:42PM | Unregistered CommenterAXman

I love OA (in a non-gay way of course) Keep doing what you're doing pimp!

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 09:14PM | Unregistered CommenterRaginCajun

AMZN paid today.
Kickin myself for not watching WYNN this morning.
RTH was weak today even with the strong market. Must be a good short coming out of one of those stocks soon.
and that dagger Kobe thru down in the garden yesterday was beautful.

Mon, February 1, 2010 at 09:49PM | Unregistered CommenterOne Three

Option Addict,

Have you played around with the new ratio chart feature in TOS? Here's an example of what you can do. See the symbol? It's $SPX/$VIX, one of my favorite indicators.

By the way, forget the clean-design minimalism of your comments section and get DISQUS if you want to continue receiving my love.

Cheers,

Raised By Wolves

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 01:14AM | Unregistered Commenterraised_by_wolves

yes i am lurking, but in a good way :) Greetings from OZ

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 04:12AM | Unregistered CommenterREE

Thanks for everything. Your the greatest.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 04:43AM | Unregistered Commenterodaz60zy

Jeff, what can I say? Thanks for keeping us afloat during these difficult economic times!

Sincerely.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:20AM | Unregistered CommenterImran

Ben,
Check out the avgimplvol on CHK... pretty high ? I may be a seller of premium. (?) - speakin' of nat gas look at EOG.

OA,
After you mentioned the USO and oil services last week... I took a position in SII last week...

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:36AM | Unregistered CommenterTrade Dawg

Hey Jeff. I've taken a beating lately, so I'm mostly in cash. Just bought a put spread in RIMM yesterday at the close, so look for it to explode higher soon. Thanks for all your efforts here. Hopefully I'll be joining you at TA soon.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:45AM | Unregistered CommenterKev

Jeff

Thanks, haven't been here in a long while, great to see that you are still doing what you do, speaks volumes about you and your trading strategy.

Awesome picks on Sunday - wynn and LVS - wow

Thanks again

Ken

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:58AM | Unregistered CommenterKen2409

RSI - less than 10 search: here's a couple AONE - bought a some March calls at the close last night. UHAL - earnings coming up, but this one is so beaten down, I am looking at selling some Feb PUTs - I will know more as the day progresses (higher risk play).

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 07:28AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

JPM - my play this morning. Broke the 10, 200 and 1K dma and I am liking.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 07:51AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

LRCX - just set an alert for a bounce off the $33 and downtrend channel. I am thinking to sell some Feb $35 PUTs, maybe just buying and doing some covered calls or going back to selling puts and buying calls - regardless a synthetic. SHLD is still going down but Theta is eating most of my Feb profits (I just can't make much money on Sears).

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 07:57AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

SNDK - got filled on some $25 / $0.60 Feb PUTs. Not much, 2% rtn in an IRA acct for 18 days. If I'm wrong, I'll own for $24.40 That said, I will buy PUTs if it breaks the $26 level which is the 50 dma. At least that is my plan right now.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 08:06AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

I'm looking at re-entering pcx here. not sure what to make of it's reaction to earnings though.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 08:17AM | Unregistered CommenterEl Guapo

WGO - I am playing this only cuz my good friend is the GSM at Affinity RV Prescott, so I keep selling PUTs. Why, well a while back, the GM there said to buy Winnie on a tip (go figure?), so I have been making a few dollars by selling Jan and now Feb PUTs by watching the chart. All told, I am an RV guy and bang for the buck 'buy a Tiffin Allegro Bus’ - best product on the road - I know! And, there is nothing wrong with the Cummins 400 ISL with 1300 ft/lbs of torgue. Today, Cummins (CMI) is going north. Only problem, you only get 7 miles to the gallon so a little (USO) might help with that issue. Now, if you want a gas product go with NAV - they make the 'workhorse chassis’ plus, it is the old International Harvester Company and compete with Oshkosh (OSK). By the way, OSK is breaking the 1K dma - you could get $0.65 by selling Feb $35 PUTs.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 08:25AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

PCX - not in any coal at the moment. I am watching KOL;the coal ETF to see what happens from here. The one I am more interested in is Cameco CCJ nuclear enegy, only cuz Washington is hyping it. With that, GE for their reactors and FLR , a builder (making an inverted H&S).

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 08:38AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

NAV (Navistar) recently bought out Monaco (bankrupt) which owned Beaver, Safari and Holiday motor homes - all told in the RV industry Monaco’s major award from the RVDA (recreational vehicles dealer association) was their marketing campaigns (#1). Tiffin garnish most of the awards with Winnebago second – goes to show you marketing pays (smoke and mirrors) but in some cases not all the bills. Anyway, back to trading.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 08:56AM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

Bone In.

Have been checking in and ditching your site for ~2 years now. Glad you are posting again.

Woke up to 15% gain on my USO position this morning before I killed it on a run. Feelin' like a champ. Thanks for the tip.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 10:00AM | Unregistered CommenterDrawagoat

thanks jeff...glad you are still maintaining this site up...looking for the day when this forum becomes as active as it was in the hayday...

on a sidenote, that 110 resistance on SPY sure is strong huh? i am betting it won't break and we fall into the close...anyone agree or disagree with me?

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 10:01AM | Unregistered Commenterevolnomis

Nice bear flag set up on COF, I'm thinking it trades to $39 and then goes to $30

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 10:12AM | Unregistered CommenterKen2409

Missed you a lot last year. Very happy to have you back throwing out advice. You were so right on the home builders. Kicking myself for not following you on that.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 10:18AM | Unregistered Commenteradvsys

AMZN - did the Apple iPad unfairly beat up Amazon? Are these tweezer bottoms today? Stay tuned! Ffor now, I am up 11% in just a few hours on this trade. I am using the 5 day, 15 minute chart to trade.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 12:49PM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

Newbie to options. Like as of last month. Learning anything and everything I can. Daily stalker, will post more as I progress. The old motto tis better to keep your mouth shut and let people think you know jack squat than to open it and remove all doubt applies. Peace out.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 01:37PM | Unregistered CommenterRP

At the hospital watching over a family member, so I can't check the TA site right now, but I wanted to post that TOL just may breakout of it's 6-month diagonal triangle today. Hope TOL wasn't a trade alert at TA, or I'll be embarassed. My cell phone takes a while to load info, so I'm just posting my comment here.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 01:48PM | Unregistered CommenterSledge Hammer

Yo, thanks for the love people.

Today it was all about oil and builders. Hope you all got to ring the register.

OA

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 02:03PM | Unregistered CommenterOption Addict

Home Run Day!!! And, it was a little of everything. Take AMZN got in a little late today but 19.78% workes for me, JPM, AONE and the list goes on. I day traded, I longed, I shorted and I was rewarded.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 02:11PM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

Trade your plan: Take TM (Toyota), I sold Feb $75 PUTs the other day (based on all the gas pedal issues and their fix) with TOS alerts if it breaks the $77 level. With that (it is going into earnings), I am set to buy PUTs on a drop. As for the trade, I am up almost 50% or drained 50% to repurchase the options plus, TM is sitting on the 5 yr last FIB level (easy to manage), anyway that is plan.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 03:54PM | Unregistered CommenterF2T

OK Jeff here is something - SOMETHING
I am all over the place as far as trades go. Still holdn a few bear calls got a few new bull put postions. Guess I like the credit spreads especially when workn full time for someone else (for now).
Thanks for your generosity with the blog.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 04:53PM | Unregistered CommenterGlarner

3 of 4 markets showing a Bollingerband(20,2) confirmed buy signals... course what would you expect with the MOSC where it's been.... the thing to watch for me... is the failure of the XLF rising wedge pattern. (and the dollar of course)... which has also printed a confirmed BB(20,2) sell signal (on the $dxy).

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:17PM | Unregistered CommenterPopeious

Glarner,

I hear you. I have been trading spreads a lot more myself. I spoke with Tom at thinkorswim, and I am going to try to set-up an autotrade program with them on my spread account.

Are you trading mostly verticals?

OA

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 05:48PM | Unregistered CommenterOption Addict

What up Jeff. Still hear lurking! Thanks for all the classic gangster rap.
DDR

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 06:21PM | Unregistered CommenterDaniel Del Real

DBA respected a trendline today on heavy volume. quite a bit of overhead resistance though.

Also, what does it mean when a penny stock trades 5x its average volume, ala UNCO? And by penny stock, I mean sub-penny stock.

Tue, February 2, 2010 at 07:04PM | Unregistered CommenterNate

Thanks for your time and efforts. Keep up on the excellent work.

Wed, February 3, 2010 at 06:35PM | Unregistered CommenterRittter

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