Props to the man! Thanks Jeff. Been watching and learning from the sidelines since early '08. I'm really wondering about crude after today. Also, about 3 weeks ago, I thought you drew a different support line on USO that began with the low in March?? Thanks again.

Hey, Jeff. New to OA (and fairly new to trading), but one thing that is giving me pause for thought on the bearish side right now is Cable.

I have been talking about a monster Elliott wave triangle this week, which would if it's valid be a continuation pattern, apparently heralding a massive dollar squeeze:

http://screencast.com/t/NDIyNGZlM

There has been a huge correlation between the buck and equities throughout this bear, so I take this possibility seriously - triangles are among the most reliable patterns.

We have an under-throw and looking at this hourly chart, you could see a completed zig-zag (5-3-5) abc move down from the Jan 19 high for wave E of the triangle. As things stand, wave c is 1.618 times the length of wave a, a common multiple.

Whatever, I'd say if this is going to play out, it needs to bottom today.

http://screencast.com/t/MTVkN2Q3YzIt

Well - check the year before that. Many divergences and the trend continued down.

Sorry - forgot to say that I expect a bounce next week sometime, but based on what I've seen the trend continues down on a long term basis.

Big boy Jeff, a picture (of McClellan) said a thousand words!

Enjoy the day off and have a great weekend.

Sincerely.

Becuz, I can't read the charts in this choppy sea of up & down, I am on the side - 75% cash. To keep it fun, I am playing beaten down stocks on the 15 minute bar - (when in), that is in for minutes to hours - with short bathroom breaks. Plus, as I read many opinions to the market going both directions - that is not a good consensus- which means we are all guessing.

My plan: back to the good ole' Investool 'clusters', right now on the SPY momentum is at 73 (still moving down), Intermediate 19.7 (flat), Near term 37.9 (moving down), Momentum .5 (needs to bounce from here), So, there will be a bounce - but, I think I will play a little (small sizes) but wait for a full cluster and lastly the SPY RSI is still moving down (27.4) which tells me to wait for something to really show its hand. Finally, I could take you thru the VIX, IWM, DIA, QQQQ and FXE which is a "CLUSTER" formation with the MS stll going down at 17. This market is confusing isn't it?

F2T... look at the MF reading on the 60d60m chart of the SPX

Is there an expert out there? The FXE moved from $150 /$151 the first week of Dec to the first level $145, take the 6 pts and the clusters right now, - so, is it time to look at this a trade or other correlated trades - plus this is a full Investool cluster at the FXE bottom. So, where is the voice, looking over my shoulder to say, go for it?

Popieous - nice!

After yesterday and watching the market for the first 30 minutes - unless Washington comes up with some new trick (tax), I think we are going into a none event day. Maybe that's good. So, it's time for me to straighten out the fishing tackle box.

OH! (I did pull the tackle boxes out of the boat) but, one last thought, three (3) hours prior to close, I will go weekly line charts - second, I will not trade for the next 4 hours - but, going into the close, I might find something of interest. OK, now I am gone.

Mole,

I was pointing out bullish divergences in an uptrend. I could go back a year, but then again, I wouldn't exactly have an uptrend.

OA

Jeff: I think we both agree then - if the tape breaches the Wednesday high it would mean that the prior trend (bullish) may still be valid.

Trying to be open minded on this - it's easy to fall in love with bearish ideas at this stage of the tape. Fighting that instinct.

Popeious

That same cluster on the 60m occured back at 1120, and a few times more all the way down to 1075 - the short term charts can give many fake cluster signals, might want to consider using other indicators alongside the cluster to confirm a move.

Ken

Agreed... but it also Depends on your time frame.. the 60d60m clusters... perhaps the time frame is for daytrading, yeah?

Typically I am in trades for 3 days to 2 weeks, I will use the 60m cluster only after I have seen a cluster on the daily, e.g. 1/28 daily cluster was followed by a cluster on the 60min on 1/29, doesn't always work, but what does ??

Jeff,
Remember back in Feb '09 when the McC was way over sold and took 2 weeks for the S&P to actually turn!
I remain cautious until I see a turn, or higher lows on the McC.
Thanks for all your insite, Bob

Popped in, just heard the President speak on CNBC (and I am looking for a fast trade), my understanding, small business will get help but if are a large business you will get penalized.

Does that mean, don't grow your business?’ At the same time, if you are a small business that makes over $250K a year or you sell your small business (capital gains tax) - then you were too successful and you will pay dearly. OK, I confused. Now, how does this fundamental question play into my technicals for a trade?

My 8:06 post was dead on: the President spoke and we have moved down 60 pts. If we could just get him on the TV everyday (Oh, he is by the way, anyone know of a 'tella promter stock'), we could get our trade set-ups everytime he speaks.

XOM - just go an alert from TOS --- ask below $63.75

Sorry about spelling (multi-tasking & typing fast), VIX should hit 30 -- now it is time for some great afternoon trading.

100 pts down on the SPY, I played this on like a fiddle since the Pres spoke.

Mole,

If you take the divergence method back to 2008, the bearish divergences worked wonders on the rips in the downtrend.

Hope to see some panic set in today.

OA

EEM - broke the 200 dma and now sitting on the 1K dma. EWZ broke the 200 dma & EWH broke the 1K dma. "the sky is falling"

GG going against the trend today, GOLD - could be a bottom with support, GDX- RSI going up and right now stock going +, I might buy and go against the market long - nothing big - but there is fear at the 'water cooler'. SELL, SELL, SELL and little ole' me might buy into the close.

GS - could be double bottom - I am scrambling thru my list but sharing here are some of my post-it notes.

GS - filled on Mar calls - get out with a TOS alert at $149

SMH (200 dma and +), INTC (@ 1KMA and +) and LRCX 200 dma and +) CHIPs are on the table for the taking!

MON - talk about a big doji on the 1K dma and +

RIMM - little o inverted H&S and just under the 1K dma. And the rear view mirror osc are moving up +

Selling 2/3rds of my QIDs, UUP and SH

GS - 10 calls $300 in 10 minutes

MON - taking a fast call position

Go F2T, go!

Check out C, the volume in the FEB 3 puts. At .07, I can't imagine much of that volume is put sales. I'd really like to see it break 3.10 or so today, however.

WYNN - alert set for $58

MIDD might be breaking down. Not much volume on the stock or the options though.

Pres has left the room - no more TV for the day - buy, buy, buy

Cramer just stated, "do you know how high the DOW would go it Washington would shut down for 2 weeks". How true! Second, companies are doing incredibly well.

XOM - hit my alert and now is sitting on the $64

Cramer state, "the market needs courage", I say 'balls' with a protective cup (stop points).

MIDD - agree, the problem, I want it to retest the $44 (only cuz I am late) and then take the trade. Plus, vol is light. Could be 3 (wierd looking) red soldiers.

V is in a nice position, though its too early for me to tell if its a buy the dip or breakdown candidate.

GS - just closed full position - maybe to soon but, made a cool $540 in 50 minutes. And, now it is continuing it climb up. I just wanted out until it cleared the 50 day on the 15 minute chart. Only cuz everything I am doing is counter trend.

Alerts are free (use them): YGE below $12.25 or above $13.30

V - I missed, nice job on the entry point

Jeff, Jeff, come out from hiding! Any words of wisdom prior to the close today. I know you have an opinion.

TIE - telling me, it's OK, just lilke gold and the equipment company JOYG

GS - still moving up - at the close - I will make a stance on getting back in

My prediction, the market corrected mid-day today - volume (as yesterday) came in. There is concerns with across the ocean countries, next week starts Chinesse New Year. I beleive (a small March CALL position) going into the week-end won't hurt you. I would like Jeff to chime in.